【作者】 陈晓娟；

【导师】 穆月英；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 中韩FTA第九轮谈判于2014年1月10日结束,这标志着中韩FTA农产品谈判已经进入出要价的实质性阶段。中韩两国在农产品贸易方面往来频繁,农产品贸易领域倍受经济学界的关注,中韩FTA背景下的农产品贸易更是多方关注的焦点。本文通过对中韩农产品贸易现状的剖析、相关贸易指标的测算以及中韩FTA农产品谈判进程的分析,将中韩FTA对中国农产品贸易的影响归结为四个重要研究议题,即韩美FTA对韩国市场上中国农产品竞争力的影响、农产品关税减让模式、技术性贸易壁垒和GTAP模拟分析。主要研究内容包括：(1)对中韩两国农产品在世界农产品市场中的进出口规模、地区结构和产品结构进行分析；(2)对中韩农产品双边贸易规模和贸易结构进行分析；(3)对相关贸易指标进行测算,主要包括中韩农产品双边贸易结合度、比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数和贸易强度指数；(4)对韩美FTA对中国农产品在韩国市场上的竞争力影响进行分析；(5)中韩FTA中韩国农产品关税的减让模式；(6)中韩FTA对中国农产品贸易影响的模拟分析；(7)构建中韩FTA过程中韩国技术性贸易壁垒对中国农产品贸易影响分析。主要研究结论概括如下：第一,在中韩FTA谈判过程中,韩国将给予农产品高度关注并采取极为谨慎的策略,这必将深刻影响中韩农产品贸易；第二,中国农产品进出口规模明显大于韩国。中国是韩国农产品进口的主要来源地,同时中国在韩国农产品出口市场中也占有重要地位,然而韩国在中国农产品进口市场中不具有重要性；第三,中国在农产品贸易方面对韩国的依赖程度要更高一些。韩美FTA的生效导致中国农产品在韩国市场上整体竞争力下降,并削弱了中国在中韩FTA农产品谈判中的优势：第四,中韩FTA中韩国农产品减税模式预测：大米等十余种粮食作物将作为例外处理,不纳入自由化进程范畴；水产品、谷物、蔬菜、蔬菜水果制品、油籽及饲料、食品工业的残渣及废料等、肉及水海产品制品将作为高度敏感产品;其他农产品则为敏感性较低或正常农产品；第五,中韩FTA对中国农产品产量及对中国对韩国农产品出口数量增长影响显著；对中国进口农产品数量影响不大；中韩FTA生效后,除林产品外,中国其他农产品出口离岸价格有不同程度增长。第六,韩国TBT设置显著影响中国对韩国农产品出口流量,并具有显著的抑制作用,已经给中国农产品对韩国出口造成实质性的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sino Korea FTA’s ninth round of talks ended in January10,2014, marking the Sino Korea FTA negotiation of agricultural products has entered a substantive stage. China and Korea has frequent contacts of agricultural products trade. Agricultural products trade has been an important research field of attention both in academic circles, and Sino Korea FTA in the background of the international trade of agricultural products is the focus of much attention. Through analyzing the current situation of agricultural products trade between China and Korea,culculating related trade index and analyzing Sino Korea FTA’s agricultural negotiation process, concluding the effect of Sino Korea FTA on Chinese agricultural products trade down to four important issues:the Korea us FTA effect on Chinese competitiveness of agricultural products in Korea market,agricultural Products Tariff Concession mode, technical barriers to trade and GTAP simulation analysis.The main research contents include:(1) Analyze the China and Korea agricultural products import and export scale, area structure and product structure in the world market;(2) Analyze the bilateral trade scale and trade structure of agricultural products between China and Korea;(3) To estimate related trade index, including the combining trade degree, comparative advantage index, trade complementarity index and trade intensity index of agricultural products between China and Korea;(4) Analyze the effect of Korea USA FTA on Chinese competitiveness of agricultural products in Korea market;(5) Korea agricultural tariff concession in Sino Korea FTA;(6) simulate the influence of Sino Korea FTA on Chinese agricultural trade;(7) The impact of technical trade barriers of Korea to Chinese agricultural trade in establishing Sino Korea FTA.The main conclusions are summarized as follows:first, in Sino Korea FTA negotiation process, Korea will pay great attention to agricultural products and take a very prudent strategy, which will influence the Sino Korea agricultural trade greatly; second, Chinese agricultural product import and export scale significantly larger than Korea. China is an important agricultural import source and destination for Korea, but Korea has no importance in Chinese agricultural import market, third, Chinese dependence more than Korean in agricultural products trade.Korea USA FTA leads to Chinese agricultural products competition overall decline in the Korean market, and weakened the Chinese advantage in Sino Korea FTA agricultural negotiation; fourth, Korea agricultural tax mode prediction of Sino Korea FTA:rice and other more than ten kinds of grain crops will be an exception, not included in the liberalization process; aquatic products, grains, vegetables, fruit and vegetable products, oilseeds and feed, food industry residues and waste water, meat and seafood products will be highly sensitive products; other agricultural products for the low sensitivity or normal agricultural products; fifth, Sino Korea FTA effect on Chinese agricultural Yield and export volume growth of China to Korea significantly; and has little effect on Chinese agricultural imports number; After the entry into force, in addition to forest products, Chinese other agricultural products’s FOB price will have different degrees of growth; sixth, Korea TBT setting affect Chinese agricultural export flow to Korea, and has a significant inhibitory effect, and has caused substantial effects to Chinese agricultural exports to Korea.更多还原