【作者】 段振文；

【导师】 鲜祖德；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 我国城市化的不断推进,要求基础设施建设跟得上经济发展的步伐。地方官员的政绩需要通过政府投资基础设施拉动地方GDP的增长,地方政府的投资欲望增强。现行的国家财政体制扩大了地方政府的资金缺口,地方政府不得不通过建立融资平台获得贷款。商业银行竞争的加剧和地方政府融资平台贷款的政府背景吸引了商业银行的放贷倾向,商业银行愿意向地方政府融资平台发放贷款。地方政府融资平台贷款的快速发展,尤其是2008年的4万亿投资刺激使商业银行的地方政府融资平台贷款量剧增,这些贷款促进了地方经济发展,优化了商业银行的贷款结构。但地方政府融资平台的贷款一般用政府财政收入或土地收益为抵押担保,资金主要投向城市基础设施建设,没有直接经济效益或收益很低,未来的贷款偿还风险较大。对地方政府融资平台贷款建立风险防范机制和偿债机制至关重要。研究地方政府融资平台贷款的风险要从其产生的根源、风险特征入手,深入分析风险产生的原因,找出风险影响因素,并在对地方政府融资平台贷款的风险及其影响因素进行实证分析的基础上,得出地方政府融资平台贷款的风险管理对策,为商业银行风险防范提供借鉴。分税制、瓦格纳法则、城镇化和地方政府官员的政绩考核制度共同促使了地方政府融资平台的产生,地方政府和商业银行基于自身利益最大化的博弈结果产生了地方政府融资平台贷款。地方政府融资平台贷款的风险特征主要为法律及合规性风险、政府的道德风险、政策性风险、流动性风险、贷款集中度风险、结构性风险。地方政府融资平台贷款的风险形成原因主要是平台贷款相关主体之间的信息不对称和政府、银行、平台各自存在的问题。地方政府融资平台贷款的风险度量指标要从政府、平台、项目三方面出发考虑。融资平台贷款的相关风险度量数据较多,运用主成分分析方法从这些数据中得到最能代表数据特征的较少变量可以更加方便我们的研究,Logistic模型对数据的分布要求不高,融资平台贷款的相关变量适合做Logistic回归。实证结果证明政府、平台、项目的影响因素均可以显著影响贷款的归还。防范融资平台贷款风险不能单纯从某个方向片面入手,而是要在监管部门、银行、地方政府、平台公司共同努力下,才能使融资平台贷款继续发挥改善我国民生、促进我国经济建设的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s urbanization continues to advance and requires infrastructure construction to keep up with the pace of economic development.Local officials need to stimulate growth of local GDP through government investment in infrastructure,so the desire of the local government to investment is strengthened.The current national financial institution expands the funding gap in local government,and the local government had to get the loan through the establishment of the local government financing platform.The competition in the commercial banks and the government background of the local government financing platform loan attract the lending of the commercial banks.The commercial banks compete to loan to the local government financing platform.The rapid development of the local government financing platform loan,especially4trillion investment stimulus in2008,makes the local government financing platform loan of the commercial banks surge.The loan promotes the local economic development,and optimize the structure of commercial bank loan.However,the local government financing platform loan are guaranteed in the financial or land revenue of the government.The fund mainly invests in urban infrastructure construction,and there is no direct economic benefit or only a low income,so the risk of future loan repayment is high.It is critical to establish the mechanism for risk prevention and repaying debt to the local government financing platform loan.It is necessary to research the risk of the local government financing platform loan from its source,the risk characteristics,the reasons for the risk and the influencing factors.And based on the empirical analyses in the risk and the influencing factors of the local government financing platform loan,the management countermeasures of risk in the local government financing platform loan are gotten to provide a reference for risk prevention of the commercial banks.The tax distribution system,Wagner’s Law,the urbanization and the performance appraisal system of the local government officials together promote the generation of the local government financing platform.The local governments and the commercial banks generate the local government financing platform loan based on the Game results of their own interests to maximize.The risk characteristics of the local government financing platform loan are mainly the legal and compliance risk,the moral risk in the governments,the policy risk,the liquidity risk,the credit concentration risk and the structural risk.The main risk cause of the local government financing platform loan comes from the information asymmetry and the problems in the government,the banks and the platform.The risk measure of the local government financing platform loan should be considered from the government,the platform and the project.There are many data associated with the risk of the financing platform loan,and it is more convenient to our study using the method of the principal component analysis to get the less and the most representative variable data from these data.The Logistic model have the less distribution demand to the data,so the relevant variables of the financing platform loan are suitable for Logistic Regression.The empirical result show that the governments,the platform companies and the projects are significant influencing factors,affecting the repay of the loan.The prevention of the risk of the financing platform loan can not simply start from a one-sided direction,but the supervision departments,the banks,the local governments and the platform companies work together to make the financing platform loan continue to play an important role to improve the livelihood and promote economic construction in China.更多还原