【作者】 杨树果；

【导师】 何秀荣；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 大豆产业链长,大豆产业发展关乎种植业、养殖业、饲料工业和食品工业等多个行业的发展,在国民经济发展中发挥着重要作用。自1996年以来我国大豆进口量逐年不断增加,有关大豆产业发展问题引起了学者们的广泛关注。但现有的研究大部分集中在大豆生产、大豆加工、大豆进口、外资扩张等个别环节和表面观察,系统的大豆经济研究寥寥无几。由于缺乏系统的研究,一方面导致现有的判断过于片面或具有较大的主观性；另一方面,致使很多问题尚不清楚,如大豆经济的运作体系和情况、大豆产业发展的宏观和微观影响因素、规律性认识以及对未来的判断,等等；更为重要的是,对一些重大问题,如大豆产业的竞争力、外资与产业安全、转基因,等等,尚缺乏正确认识和长远判断,以致出现了很多不现实或不客观的观点。因此,本文从产业链的视角,通过历史比较和国际比较,对大豆生产、流通、加工、消费和贸易各环节及相应的产业政策等进行较全面系统的研究,分析了大豆产业各环节发展的影响因素,揭示了我国大豆产业发展演变规律和经济特征,并形成未来我国大豆产业发展变化的趋势判断,提出大豆产业发展的战略措施,以期为推动我国大豆产业进一步发展提供决策参考。研究结果表明：(1)我国大豆产业的整体发展态势是良好的,尽管2010年以来,大豆生产环节上出现了连续几年的明显滑坡,但消费、贸易、加工几个环节却是一片繁荣,生产上有所滑坡并不等于整个大豆产业的衰退。(2)我国的大豆生产发展是缓慢的,单产水平是影响大豆生产的关键因素,在资源约束条件下,大豆比较效益低是大豆生产滑坡的主要原因；综合经济和非经济因素,短期内我国大豆种植面积还将减少,但减少幅度有限；国产大豆不具有竞争力,转基因大豆具有明显的经济优势,靠生产保护和非转基因错位发展并不能从根本上解决问题,提高单产是提升我国大豆产业竞争力的关键。(3)收入水平的提高,人口的增长及城镇化发展拉动了大豆消费的快速增长,其他油脂(特别是棕榈油)的替代效应一定程度上可减缓大豆消费增长,但作用不大。因此,短期内我国大豆需求还将呈刚性增长,而国内大豆供给难度加大,仍需主要依靠进口来满足国内需求。(4)我国的大豆流通基本上形成了大豆主产区和东南沿海向全国扩散的格局,大豆加工产品中的豆制品多在本地流通,豆油和豆粕主要由加工产区向销区流通,但大豆流通基础设施落后、流通效率低下。(5)大豆加工以压榨为主,大豆油脂加工业形成了民营企业、外资企业、国有企业三足鼎立的基本态势。国内企业在产能、大豆处理、豆油产量以及蛋白生产方面处于优势,但大豆加工业产能过剩问题仍然突出。(6)大豆进多出少的格局在相当一段时期内不会改变。需求的快速增长与资源可能性是大豆进口不断增加的根本原因,价差因素是近年来大豆进口迅速扩大的主要原因。大豆进口并未对国内大豆生产产生冲击,豆农收入并没有因此受到影响,反而在种植结构调整中获益;外资的进入并没有形成对大豆加工业的控制,国内大豆加工企业的综合实力在与外资企业的竞争中得到了提升,因此,大豆产业安全的担忧是不必要的。基于以上研究结果,充分认识到大豆在我国粮食生产的可持续发展、维护食物安全和改善营养以及农业结构战略性调整中的地位日趋重要,提出采取以下措施实现中国大豆产业的可持续发展：(1)充分利用国际国内两种资源和两个市场来满足国内需求；(2)依靠科技进步提高单产；(3)建立现代耕作制度技术体系稳定种植面积；(4)重点发展高蛋白大豆生产,将转基因大豆生产纳入研究和政策考虑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Soybean industry impacts the development of planting, breeding, feed and food industry because of its long industry chain, and it plays an important role in the development of national economy. Since1996, soybean import quantity has been increasing year by year and the whole industry drives extensive attention of scholars. However, most of the existing research focused on individual and ostensible sector, such as soybean production, soybean processing, soybean trade or foreign capital expansion. There was few systemic research of the soybean economy. Lacking of systematic study, on one hand, may lead to an existing judgment that is one-sided or has great subjectivity, on the other hand, may cause many problems to be obscure, such as the operation system and the condition of the soybean economy, the influence factors of macro and micro of soybean industry development, the understanding of the regularity and judgment of the future, and so on. More importantly, there are lack of correct understanding and long-term judgment on some major issues, such as the competitiveness of soybean industry, foreign investment and industrial security, genetically modified, and so on. It leads to much unrealistic and not objective view.Therefore, the thesis studied comprehensively and systematically on each link of soybean production, circulation, processing, consumption, trade and relevant industrial policy from the perspective of industry chain and by historical and international comparison. It analyzed the factors affecting the development of all aspects of the soybean industry, revealed the evolution rule and economic characteristics of China’s soybean industry development, judged the trend judgment of development and change of China’s soybean industry in the future, and put forward the strategic measures of soybean industry development, in order to provide decision-making reference on promoting the further development of soybean industry in China.The results showed:(1) Overall, the situation of soybean industry is good in China, although the sector of soybean production has been a sharp decline for successive years since2010, the several links of consumption, trade, processing is booming. The production decline doesn’t mean the decline of the whole soybean industry.(2) The development of soybean production is slow. Yield level is the key factor that influences soybean production, under the condition of resource constraints, and the low soybean comparative benefit is the main cause of the decline in soybean production. We think that the soybean plantation area will continue to decline in the short term on the basis of concidering synthetically of economic and non-economic factors, but the amplitude of declining will be limited. Domestic soybean is not competitive, the problem can not be fundamentally solved based on protection and non-gm dislocation development, but improving yield is the key to enhance competitiveness of China soybean industry. (3) The improvement of income level, population growth and urbanization drive the rapid growth of the soybean consumption, the substitution effect of other oil (especially in palm oil) can slow down the soybean consumption growth to a certain extent, but the effect is not big. So there will be an increasing soybean demand growth in China in the short term. Moreover, it is mainly depend on import to meet domestic demand because of the lack of the domestic soybean supply.(4) The soybean circulation has formed a basic pattern which presents the diffusion from major production areas and southeast coastal areas to the whole country. Bean products are mainly circulated in origin and soybean oil and soybean meal are mainly circulated from the processing region to sales region. However, the soybean circulation infrastructure is backward and the circulation efficiency is low.(5) The crush is the main form of soybean processing. Soybean oil processing industry has formed the basic situation of tripartite confrontation:private enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises and state-owned enterprises. Domestic enterprises have advantages in the production capacity, soy raw materials processing, soybean oil production and protein production. However, overcapacity problem is still outstanding.(6) The trade pattern of more soybean import and less soybean export will not change for a long period. The rapid growth of demand and resource constraints is the main cause for the increasing of soybean imports. Moreover, the price factor is the main cause of soybean imports expanded rapidly in recent years. The concern about security of soybean industry is needless. As soybean imports did not influence the domestic soybean production and soybean farmer’s earnings, soybean farmer’s income is not only affected by, but also benefit from the planting structure adjustment. Foreign capital did not control the soybean processing industry, while the comprehensive strength of domestic soybean processing enterprise improved in the competition with foreign companies.Based on the above research results and the basic judgments, the soybean’s position has been fully realized in the sustainable development of grain production, maintaining the food safety and improving the nutrition and the strategic adjustment of agricultural structure. The following measures are provided for the sustainable development of China’s soybean industry:(1) Take full advantage of the resources and two markets (the international and domestic) to meet domestic demand.(2) Rely on scientific and technological progress to improve yield.(3) Build modern farming technology system to make planting area stable.(4) Focus on the development of high protein soybean production, and the genetically modified soybean production should be incorporated in study and policy considerations.更多还原