【作者】 孟鹏；

【导师】 郝晋珉；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 城镇化对一个国家而言,是一个历史发展过程,城镇的结构和功能布局一旦确定较难改变。因此城镇化的发展是否适度,事关城镇化的成败得失。本文通过对宏观层次,不同城镇化进程对耕地变化的影响分析和对土地生态系统服务价值的差异化影响分析,来研究城镇化水平的适度性；中观层次,对城市群在城镇化进程中的规模特点分析,来研究城镇规模的适度性；微观层次,通过低碳生态城市空间功能结构优化设想,来研究城镇内部的结构和功能的适度性。主要结论如下：(1)不同城镇化进程对耕地变化的影响分析。采用土地利用变化分析方法,运用主成分分析法和多元回归模型,对黄淮海平原1997—-2008年城镇化进程中耕地的数量和质量变化进行分析。研究结果表明：①人口城镇化驱动因子、空间城镇化驱动因子对研究区普遍影响显著；而经济城镇化驱动因子和生活方式城镇化驱动因子,因各研究区域所处城镇化阶段和发展特点而呈现不同规律。②城镇化是以经济增长和居民生活水平提高为目标,而非单纯城镇化水平的提高,更不能以大量占用耕地和牺牲生态环境为代价。城镇化的发展完全可以适时适度推进,避免大量占用耕地牺牲粮食安全和生态环境。(2)城镇化进程对土地生态系统服务价值的差异化影响。土地生态系统服务功能的计算运用了价值量法,替代成本法和防治成本法等方法。主要研究结论如下：①黄淮海平原的ESV从1997年的1889.45×108元减少到2008年的1841.32×108元,生态系统服务价值下降了48.13×108元。随着城镇化水平从45.51%提高到52.54%,城镇化进程的生态成本为6.84×108元。②城镇化水平和单位面积生态价值呈现类似库兹涅茨曲线倒U型关系,处于中等水平的城镇化地区其单位面积生态价值较高,而较低水平和较高水平的城镇化区域生态价值较低。因此城镇化应当适时适度发展,既避免低水平粗放利用资源,又防止过度聚集超越生态系统的承载力。(3)对城市群在城镇化进程中的规模特点分析。基于城镇规模的边际成本和边际效益的理论分析,通过三次非线性回归建立城镇最佳规模分析模型和城镇发展规模适度性判断模型。首先,根据不同城镇规模特点和经济效益与投入成本关系,提出相应的发展建议；其次,通过城镇最佳规模和实际规模的对比关系和城镇规模增长趋势的综合判断,来研究城镇发展规模的适度性。(4)低碳生态城市空间功能结构优化设想。通过对城市结构和功能的优化来实现低碳生态城市的建设。低碳生态城市结构功能优化体系,以土地利用结构优化为基础,以空间上的功能组团优化为导向,以绿色交通体系、绿色基础设施、绿色节能建筑为手段,来实现紧凑的城市形态、有效的功能混合、宜人的地块尺度,从而形成低碳减排和生态保护的基本城市结构特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 In fact, the urbanization is the only opportunity for the countryand the structure and function of urban layout are difficult to change once established.So the optimum of the development of urbanization is the matter of of achievements and failures.In the macro level,the optimum of the development of urbanization is to analysize the difference of effect of rapid urbanization on cultivated land changes and theedification of the Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Terrestrial Ecosystem Service Values;In the medium level,the optimum of the development of urbanization is to analysize the scale characteristics of urban agglomeration in the urbanization process;In the micro level,the optimum of the development of urbanization is to research the optimization of the structure and function of the city to benefit the construction of the low-carbon and ecological city.The conclusion is just as followed:(1) Difference analysis of effect of rapid urbanization on cultivated land changes.By analysis of land use change and using the method of principal component analysis (PCA) andmultiple linear regression models.the quality and quantity changes of cultivated land in Huang-Huai-Hai plain were analyzed.Some regularities can be revealed:At first, the population urbanization factors and spatial urbanization factors affecting on cultivated land change in these regions was the most direct and common; Secondly, the functions of economic urbanization factors and lifestyle urbanization factorswere significant different due to the features of urbanization and the level of urbanization.The urbanization can be promoted timely and moderately, to avoid massively occupying arable land at the expense of food security and ecological environment. So theconclusion can be drawn that occupation of less farmland.intensive use of construction land and preservation of cultivated land is the wise choice for the new urbanization development model with reasonable environmental policies.(2) TheEdification of the Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Terrestrial Ecosystem Service Values. The ESV estimation method is based on value assessment method,substitution cost methods and cost-prevention methods.The research results provided the following conclusions:1) The total land ecosystem service values of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain was approximately188.945billion Yuan in1997and184.132billion Yuan in2008;2) The total ecosystem service value decreased by4.813billion Yuan from1997to2008;3) The increase in urbanization levelfrom45.51%to52.54%led to an ecological cost of684million because agricultural land with a high value coefficient of ecosystem services shifted to construction land with a negative value;4) The relationship between urbanization level and ecosystem service values per unit area presents a Kuznets inversed U Curve. The ecosystem service values per unit area for moderate urbanization are higher, whereas those of the primary and mature stages are lower. Therefore, in conclusion, the occupation of less farmland, the intensive use of construction land and the preservation of theenvironment are wise choices for new urbanization development models under reasonable environmental policies.(3) The analysis of the scale characteristics of urban agglomeration in the urbanization process.Based on theoretical analysis of the marginal cost and marginal benefit of urban scale, through the cubic nonlinear regressionequation, the optimal scale of cities model and the optimum judgment model of urban development are built up. At first,according to the different characteristics of urban scale and the relationship between economic benefit and cost, the corresponding development suggestions are put forward. Secondly,through the contrast of optimum size and actual size and the comprehensive judgment of growth trend of urban scale, we explore the regularity of moderation of urban development.(4) The spatial structure optimization of of low carbon and ecological function of urban. Through the optimization of urban structure and function, the low-carbon ecological cities are realized.On the basis of the optimization of land use structure andspatialfunction group of urban, with green transportation system, green infrastructure and green energy-saving buildings, the optimization system was established.The city’s basic features are compact urban form, the function of the effective mixing, pleasant land scale, low carbon and ecological protection.更多还原