中国海外人才回流的国际知识溢出与技术进步研究

【作者】 陈怡安；

【导师】 杨河清；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 劳动经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,随着经济全球化的发展,人力资本,尤其是高能力、高素质的人力资本,作为一国经济发展与技术进步不可或缺的重要要素,正成为各国竞相争夺的宝贵资源。据中国教育部公布的最新数据显示,伴随着中国经济的腾飞和政府的努力,中国已成为世界上最主要的“人才回流”和“人才环流”的接纳国。同时据中国留学基金委数据显示,1996年至2009年间,国家公派留学人员的回国率高达97%;很多海外名校毕业的留学生,即使能在美国找到高薪工作,也都纷纷回国效力,该现象也发生在印度和台湾。可以看出当前海外人才回流正成为地区经济发展以及技术进步的主力,并且作为国际人力资本流动的海归回流以及其对地区技术进步效应问题日益引起理论界的广泛关注,结合近期中国十八大提出的“创新驱动发展战略”发展要求,本研究认为考察我国海归回流的国际知识溢出效应及对中国技术进步的影响显得颇有必要,能够为政府吸引海外人才归国的政策提供一些参考价值。本文通过文献研究、比较分析、归纳演绎、数理分析等方法对海归回流的知识溢出效应与技术进步研究展开了较为系统的研究。理论部分,将人才回流、知识溢出与技术进步相关理论进行了归纳,力求丰富海归人才回流的知识溢出与技术进步的基础理论研究。与此同时,对海归是否选择回流进行一般性原理的分析,在此基础上分析海归回流引致的知识溢出产生机理,分别从海归回流知识溢出产生的渠道、海归回流引致知识溢出效应的逻辑关系两方面展开,最后分析海归引致的知识溢出效应的影响因素,为后文经验分析部分打下了坚实的理论基础。实证方面,一方面对海归人才回流的基本状况及特征进行了调研,摸清了海归在所属行业、受教育年限、留学深造国分布、就业单位等方面存在的差异；另一方面估算了海归回流引致的知识溢出效应以及对各地区技术进步的影响；在此基础上,进一步分析海归人力资本水平、技术差距对中国技术进步的影响等问题。本研究通过对前期文献的整理和评价,得出海归回流知识溢出与技术进步这一论题需进一步展开研究的五个方面。理论方面：1、海归回流知识溢出产生的理论机理需要进一步深入探究；2、对海归回流引致的知识溢出效应影响因素需要进一步深度挖掘；3、对海归人才回流需进行一般性原理归纳；实证方面：1、需运用合理的计量方法估算海归回流引致的知识溢出效应；2、海归回流这一渠道的国际知识溢出与其他三大渠道FDI、国际贸易、专利技术引致的国际知识溢出需进行比较；3、需进一步研究海归人力资本水平对海归知识溢出影响效应方面以及在技术差距与海归引致的知识溢出效应关系方面的研究,前期学者对此领域研究甚少。针对以上理论部分、实证部分关于海归回流知识溢出与技术进步研究的薄弱点和空白点,展开本文主体部分的研究。本文的研究结论如下：理论部分,通过对海归人才回流对中国技术进步的影响等方面进行了系统的理论分析,获得了一些重要的理论判断。(1)并不是所有留学人员最终都选择回国,只有当海归个体能力处于中等水平时,海归选择获得中等教育水平,且选择留学海外并在一定时期后回流母国；说明目前回流的海归总体上看并非能力水平相当高的顶尖科技创新人才。(2)海归回流知识溢出实现机理主要通过人力资本效应、网络效应、企业间技术知识的直接学习、竞争效应、空间集聚效应的渠道实现。(3)海归回流的这种溢出效应并不是随海归回流的发生而白动产生的,受诸多因素的制约。本文认为影响海归知识溢出效应的因素来自知识自身的特性、微观主体因素、宏观环境因素三个方面。实证部分,首先进行海归知识溢出效应对中国技术进步的研究,在此基础上,分别从“海归人力资本水平与其知识溢出效应”以及“国内外技术差距对海归知识溢出效应的影响”这两方面推进,展开经验研究,讨论了海归回流对中国技术进步的影响,得到了一些有价值的研究结论。(1)海归回流对中国技术进步的影响效应显著,并存在滞后效应,即海归回流对各省市技术进步的促进作用需要经过一定周期、与各省市相应配套的人力资本相结合才能发挥作用。并且发现海归回流知识溢出呈现非均衡性。实证表明各省市经济发展水平越高、科研投入越大、金融市场环境越良好,其海归回流的知识溢出效应也越大。(2)发现在国际知识溢出领域,海归回流是与对外直接投资和进口、专利技术等同等重要的渠道,通过在全球人才战争中合理引进以往流失海外的高级人才,通过吸收海归人才的知识溢出效应实现技术创新无疑是技术后发的中国实现“经济赶超”的佳径。(3)得出中国各地区本土人力资本吸收能力对海归回流引致的知识溢出效应具有差异性。表明海归回流只有与高水平的人力资本结合才能对技术水平发挥更大的提升作用。进一步得出一省市本土人力资本吸收能力与海归的知识溢出效应之间的关系呈非单调性的单门槛特征。(4)一省市的海归人力资本水平对其知识溢出效应影响较大,当一个地区的海归人力资本水平达到一定水平时,海归的知识溢出效应会呈现出显著的跃升和加速现象,且目前的总体情况是我国海归人力资本水平在逐步提高。(5)国内外技术差距对海归技术进步的影响存在倒U型关系,当初始阶段技术差距较大时,海归所引致的知识溢出效应呈上升趋势,在达到特定临界值后,呈现递减趋势,并随着技术差距的进一步缩小,对海归技术进步负相关。同时就中国目前而言,绝大多数省份与国内外的技术差距和海归知识溢出效应之间的对应关系仍然位于倒U型曲线的正相关段。进一步得出海归回流的知识溢出效应受国内外技术差距的内生约束而呈现出由弱变强再减弱的非线性动态演进规律。存在技术差距的特定门槛值,使得海归回流的知识溢出效应呈现出非线性特征。同时拥有相匹配的吸收能力是本土企业获得海归释放的知识溢出效应的前提条件,较大的技术差距并不利于本土企业吸收和模仿海归带来的先进技术。本文的研究贡献及创新体现在以下几个方面：第一,与以往研究不同,本文首次将海归人才回流这一渠道对一国技术进步的影响与国际知识溢出其他三大渠道进行比较,发现在国际知识溢出领域,海归回流是与对外直接投资和进口、专利技术等同等重要的渠道,通过在全球人才战争中合理引进以往流失海外的高级人才,吸收海归人才的知识溢出效应实现技术创新无疑是技术后发的中国实现“经济赶超”的佳径。第二,本文结合“知识溢出、技术进步与经济增长的关系”的理论分析,讨论了海归人力资本水平与海归知识溢出的关系,进一步讨论了中国各省市和发达国家的技术差距对海归知识溢出的影响,目前相关研究仍存在争议。本文将对此提供进一步的经验证据。第三,本文融合劳动经济学的人力资本流动、人才学领域以及宏观经济的技术进步领域知识,瞄准三大交叉前沿领域,拓展了以往研究海归人才主要从人才学领域或劳动经济学领域研究的视角。第四,本文在前期文献基础上,实证部分采用计量领域较新的门槛面板模型分析海归人力资本水平对海归回流的技术进步的影响以及技术差距对海归回流的技术进步影响,对于海归人力资本水平对引致的知识溢出效应关系以及技术差距对中国海归回流的技术进步影响等的相关研究目前尚处于空白,因此,本文将这一较新的计量方法应用于新的研究领域且进一步关注了前期学者尚未涉及的领域。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,with the development of economic globalization,human capital, especially the high-capacity,high-quality human capital as an important factor in the country’s economic development and technological progress is becoming a valuable resource for all countries’competion.The latest data released by the Chinese Ministry of Education show that along with China’s economic take-off and the government’s efforts,China has become the world’s leading receiving country of "return"and "brain circulation". Meanwhile,the data from the China Scholarship Council shows that from1996to2009the return rate of the state’s public school students are97%,many students graduated from overseas well-known university,even if they can find high-paying jobs in the United States, also return. The phenomenon occurred in India and Taiwan as well. It can be seen that the current returnees back is becoming the main force of regional economic development and technological progress. And the issues of returnees reflux as an international human capital flow as well as returnees back making effect on regional technological progress has caused widespread concern in theoretical circles.Combined with the recent Chinese eighteen’s "innovation-driven development strategy"requirements, this study suggest that it seems quite necessary to analyze the international knowledge spillovers of returnees reflux and its impact to China’s technogical progress. It is helpful to provide some valuable information for the government’s policy to attract foreign talents to back.This paper launched a more systematic study for returnee’s knowledge spillovers and technological progress by literature research methods,comparative analysis methods,induction methods, deduction methods and mathematical analysis methods. In theoretical part, the paper has summarized related theories of brain return, knowledge spillovers and technological progress, and strives to enrich fundamental research of the knowledge of returnees and technological progress. Meanwhile, the paper make a general principal analysis of whether returnee choose to return, on this basis analyze theoretical mechanism of knowledge spillovers arising from returnees back. First, conducting research from analyzing the knowledge spillovers channel of returnees back and analyzing the logical relationship of between returnees back and its knowledge spillovers respectively. Then analyzing influencing factors of returnees’knowledge spillovers, and laiding a solid theoretical foundation for the later empirical analysis section.On the one hand, in the empirical part, the paper conducted an investigation of returnees’basic situation and characteristics, with the purpose to find out the differences existed in returnees’respective fields, years of education, studying abroad country distribution, employment units and other areas.On the other hand,estimate returnees’ knowledge spillovers and the impact to the regional technological progress.On this basis analyzing of returnees’human capital level and the impact of technology gap to china’s the technological progress furtherly.By collecting and evaluation of the previous literature,this topic of returnees back knowledge spillovers and technological progress needed to be further expanded in four areas.In theoretical aspects:the theoretical mechanism of returnees reflux generates knowledge spillovers needed explore furtherly;the influence factors of returnees’ knowledge spillovers needed deeper excavation.And needed returnee’s general principles induction. In the Empirical aspects, it is required to use reasonable measurement methods to estimate returnee’s knowledge spillovers; we need to make a comparison between returnee’s international knowledge spillovers and the other three channels of FDI, international trade, patent; Further research is needed on the relationship between returnees’human capital level and its knowledge spillovers and between technology gap and returnees’s knowledge spillovers. Early scholars have few studies in this field.Based on the weakness or blank in theoretical part as well as the analytical part related to returnees with overflow of knowledge and analysis of its technical progress, the study is expanded the main part of this article.With the conclusion of essential theoretical judgments after the systematic analysis of the impact that returnees exert upon technology in China.(1) Not all students studying abroad eventually return their homeland. Only when they are at the median level in terms of capability, they would choose to acquire median educational level and return after a period overseas.It shows that current returnees aren’t the top technological innovation talent with a very high level of competence on the whole.(2) The mechanism of returnees with overflow of knowledge is carried out through human capital effect, network effects, technology simulating among enterprises, competitive effects and spatial agglomeration effects.(3) Spillovers from returnees are affected by a wide range of factors,not only restricted in the origin. This essay figures that the factors consist of three main aspects, character of knowledge, micro subjective factor and macro environmental factor.In the empirical part, we first studied the influence of returnee’s knowledge spillover effects on Chinese technology progress.On this basis, we conducted an empirical research on the returnees’human capital level with its knowledge spillover effect and the influence of technology gap at home and abroad for returnees’knowledge spillover effect. Then we discussed the effect of returnees returning back on Chinese technology progress, some valuable conclusions are obtained.(1) Returnees’reflux effects on Chinese technology progress is significant,and it has lagged effect,that is,returnees’reflux to various provinces and cities with corresponding combination of human capital can promote the technological progress within a certain period. We found that returnees’knowledge spillover present unbalanced. Empirical study shows that the higher the level of economic development,the scientific research of provinces and cities,investment, financial market environment,the greater effect of returnee’s knowledge spillover.(2) We found that in the field of international knowledge spillovers, returnees’back is an important way equal to the foreign direct investment and imports and patent technology. It is undoubtedly that the technology innovation is a great path of "economic catch-up" by importing high-level talents in the global talent wars and absorbing overseas talents knowledge spillover effect.(3) We concluded that human capital absorption capacity for returnees reflux’s knowledge spillover effect is different in different regions. It shows that returnees’reflux combined with high levels of human capital improve the level of technology. We further found that the relationship between a province’s ability of absorbing human capital and the knowledge spillover effect shows the characteristic of the monotonicity of the single threshold.(4) The provinces and cities’returnees human capital has a greater influence on knowledge spillover effect. When the level of one area’s returnee’s human capital reaches a certain level, the knowledge spillover effect of returnees presents a significant jump and acceleration phenomena, and the Chinese returnees’overall human capital levels gradually raised.(5)There is an u-shaped relationship between the technology gap at home and abroad and returnees’influence of technological progress. When the technology gap is larger at the initial stage,the knowledge spillover effect caused by returnee is on the rise,after reaching a certain critical level,it showed a trend of decline, and as the technology gap narrowed,returnees to the technology progress effects show the negative correlattion.In terms of China’s current situation, the corresponding relations between the knowledge spillover effect of most of the provinces with the domestic and foreign technology gap and returnees is still located in the inverted u-shaped curve segments. Furthermore, we concluded that knowledge spillover effect of returnees’backflow is governed by endogenous technology gap at home and abroad and it presents the nonlinear dynamic evolution law from weak to strenth and back to weak again. Because of the certain threshold value of the technology gap, the knowledge spillover effect of returnees’reflux shows the characteristics of nonlinear. At the same time, having the absorption capacity is the precondition of matching the local enterprises to obtain knowledge spillover effect of the returnees. We found that the great technology gap is not conducive to domestic enterprises to absorb and imitate advanced technology which returnees bringing back.The contribution and innovation of the research is reflected in the following aspects: First, unlike the previous studies, this paper will be the first to compare the channel of returnees on impacts of country’s technological progress with the other three international knowledge spillovers channels. And it was first discovered that in the field of international knowledge spillovers, returnees’reflux is an important way equal to the foreign direct investment and imports and patent technology.lt is undoubtedly that the technology innovation is a great path of "economic catch-up"by importing high-level talents in the global talent wars and absorbing overseas talents knowledge spillover effect.Second,the paper combine the theoretical analysis of the relationship between knowledge spillovers、progress and Economic growth,and discuss the relationship between returnees’ human capital level with returnees’knowledge spillovers,and furtherly discussed the impact of the technological gap betweenn the Chinese provinces with the developed countries.Currently, there are still some controversies in these areas. This study will provide further empirical evidences for this.Third, the study integrated the areas of human capital flows in labor economics, the field of talent as well as the field of technological progress in macroeconomics, targeting the three cross-frontier areas, and expanding the previous studies which was mainly in the single perspective of talents or labor economics.Fourth, based on the previous literature on the empirical part, the study used a relatively new model of panel threshold model in econometrics. Analyzed the impact of the human capital level of returnees and the technology gap on the technological progress, for this part of some related research are still in the blank. Therefore, this study applied this relatively new measurement method to new areas, and further attention to the previous literature yet covered.更多还原