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中国城市化的经济增长效应研究

The Study on the Economic Growth Effect of Urbanization in China

【作者】 谭善勇

【导师】 张连城;

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 , 国民经济学, 2013, 博士

【摘要】 为了充分挖掘和有效利用中国城市化的经济增长效应在数量、质量上的特点与规律,为城市政府积极推动新型城市化提供帮助,本文采用了比较研究、专家调查与层次分析法以及主成分回归分析等统计方法,试图探讨和全面分析中国城市化对经济增长在数量和质量等方面上的效应。研究表明,总体上看,经济增长与城市化的变动趋势基本相同,经济增长受城市化及其四个方面水平的变化影响也大体相同,但经济增长受城市化各个具体指标的影响情况各不相同,经济增长质水平的各具体水平变动与城市化的变动不大一致,经济增长稳定性和共享性水平与城市化各项水平的变动也没有明显关系。而且,城市化水平的提高并不能左右经济增长的稳定性水平,城市化水平的提高与经济增长的有效性、创新性、协调性以及持续性水平的变动步调并不一致,城市化水平的提高也没有带来经济增长水平的同步提高。需要注意的是,中国城市化水平的提高反而引起经济增长共享性水平的下降。为了进一步提升中国城市化的经济增长效应,需要从城市化及其四个方面入手,积极制定政策措施,推动“以人为本”的新型人口城市化的进程,开展以建设紧凑型城市为目标的土地城市化,加快经济结构优化调整为关键的经济城市化,促进公正、共享、包容型的社会城市化发展以及积极稳妥的规划、培育和发展中国的城市群。

【Abstract】 In order to fully exploit and effectively utilize the characteristics and rules in quantity and quality of China’s economic growth effects by urbanization, to provide help for city governments to actively promote the new urbanization, this paper uses comparative study, expert survey, and statistical methods such as AHP and principal component regression analysis, and tries to explore and comprehensively examine the economic growth effects of China’s urbanization in both quantity and quality.Research shows that, on the whole, the trends of economic growth and urbanization are quite similar, and the economic growth effects from urbanization and its four levels are also close. However, indicators for urbanization affect economic growth differently, changes between particular quality levels of economic growth and urbanization are not very consistent, and relationships between economic stability, sharing capability and urbanization indicators are insignificant. Moreover, raising urbanization does not necessarily improve the stability of economic growth, the pace of urbanization is not consistent with changes in the efficiency, innovation, coordination and sustainability of economic growth, and rising urbanization did not promote economic growth at the same rate. It is worth noting that higher urbanization level in China decreases the sharing capability of economic growth.In order to improve the economic growth effects of China urbanization, we need to start from urbanization and its four aspects, actively develop policies, to promote the "people-oriented" new population urbanization process and the compact-city oriented land urbanization, to accelerate the economic urbanization with the key of economic structure adjustment, to promote the society urbanization with justice, sharing, and tolerance, and to actively and steadily plan, foster and develop China’s city clusters.

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