【作者】 刘俊杰；

【导师】 张红宇； 周应恒；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 粮食为民生之本,粮价乃百价之基。粮食价格问题一直是社会各界关注的热点。随着我国粮食市场的逐步放开,在市场供求规律和外部冲击因素共同作用下,我国粮食价格波动越来越频繁,粮食价格的大起大落不仅影响了生产者的利益和消费者的福利,给国民经济的持续、健康发展也带来很大的负面影响。本文以小麦为例,借助现代经济学的理论和研究方法,从我国小麦市场供求关系和外部冲击因素出发,建立我国小麦价格波动和影响的分析框架,通过对小麦价格波动成因和机理进行分析,明确各主要影响因素的作用机理、影响方式和影响程度,并在此基础上分析我国小麦价格波动的传递效应和小麦生产者的供给反应行为。通过上述分析,以期为我国粮食价格调控政策的科学制定提供一点可供参考的依据。为实现上述目标,本文采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法,在对相关文献梳理和价格波动理论把握的基础上,从具体的政策制度环境出发对我国小麦价格波动状况和原因进行了分析回顾,在此基础上运用供求和市场均衡理论,从内生传导和外生冲击角度分析影响我国小麦价格的具体因素及影响程度,同时,运用农产品供给理论和农户行为理论分析了价格波动对农户小麦播种面积决策的影响。本文的具体研究内容、研究方法和主要结论如下：第一章为本文选题依据和框架设计。第二章为文献回顾与理论综述。第三章在第一、第二章基础上运用时间趋势剔除法界定了我国小麦价格波动周期并分析其成因。分析表明：(1)1978-2009年我国小麦价格经历了7个周期性波动,小麦价格周期性波动特征较为明显,但波动周期没有一定的规律性。(2)分析小麦价格周期性变化原因时发现供求关系仍是主导小麦价格变动的主导因素,生产成本等因素对小麦价格带来相当程度的冲击,同时国家调控政策对小麦价格波动幅度有一定的抑制作用；通过对小麦市场价格波动地区间特征分析表明：我国小麦销区省份和西部省份价格波动变异系数明显高于产区价格波动变异系数。这一定程度上会有小麦销区和西部省份的生产薄弱性在小麦市场种可能会被放大,价格波动幅度会比产区大。第四章主要从供求关系和外部冲击方面理论分析了我国小麦价格波动的成因和影响机理。分析表明：(1)我国小麦市场价格波动的主要因素还是来自供求关系、成本冲击和政策制度变动等方面因素,多种因素的综合作用导致小麦市场供给需求关系的变化,从而使得市场价格始终处于波动状态；(2)由于分散的、小规模的种植模式、日益上升的生产成本加之与其相关的加工流通体系不完善使得小麦市场供给的基本面稳定受到影响,同时基于消费习惯,我国的小麦需求稳定具有刚性,这往往使得波动的效应扩大化。第五章在第四章价格波动成因和机理分析基础上,运用供求理论和市场均衡理论和方法,构建小麦价格影响因素模型实证分析供求因素和外部冲击因素对我国小麦价格的影响。分析表明：(1)生产资料价格等成本因素是推动小麦市场价格上涨的主要动力；(2)农户的市场预期也对小麦市场价格波动产生相当大的影响；(3)竞争作物价格变动对小麦市场价格带来显著的正向影响；(4)收入水平变动对小麦市场价格产生一定的正向影响；(5)反映国家粮食市场调控政策的流通体制改革在考察期内对小麦价格产生了正向影响；(6)自然灾害的冲击对小麦市场价格波动也有相当程度的正向影响。第六章从我国小麦产销分离的现状出发考察我国小麦市场价格波动的传递效应。分析结果表明：(1)我国各地区小麦市场之间存在长期均衡关系,从长期看一个地区价格变动能引起另一地区价格的变动。(2)误差修正模型结果表明,我国小麦各地区市场之间的长期均衡关系制约着短期价格波动,这种偏离长期均衡的误差校正机制能减弱价格之间的偏离,促使价格向均衡调整,并且主产区的调整能普遍大于主销区的调整能力。(3)Granger因果检验结果表明小麦主产区市场价格对主销区市场价格引导作用明显,主销区市场价格对主产区市场价格引导作用比较弱。第七章根据农产品供给理论和农户行为理论建立我国小麦播种面积的价格反应模型,分析价格波动对农户小麦播种面积的影响,结果表明：(1)在短期内,小麦播种面积对价格变动的反应敏感性不强；长期内小麦供给有弹性,能够针对价格变化做出反应。(2)农户播种决策受固定要素影响较大,短期内播种面积具有较强的刚性。第八章在总结上述研究结论的基础上提出促进我国小麦市场健康运行,小麦产业稳定发展的政策措施：完善价格调控体系；加大农业基础建设和科研与推广；规范农资市场,稳定农资价格；保证生产者收益；保护耕地资源等方面的政策措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Foodstuffs are the basic of people’s life and the price of them is the foundation of the price of all the other things. Foodstuffs price has always been the hot spot of people’s concern from all walks of life. With the gradual liberalization of China’s grain market, and in the common role of the law of supply-demand and external shock factors, the fluctuation of grain prices has been more and more frequent. The volatility in foodstuffs prices not only affects the interests of producers and the welfare of consumers, but also casues great negative impact on the sustainad and healthy development of National economy. Taking the wheat as an example, this paper tends to establish a system framework of the fluctuation and impacts on the wheat price so as to provide the scientific basis for grasping the characteristics of fluctuation, influencing factors, the ripple effect and the implement of regulating policy with the help of the theory and research methods of modern economics and starting from the supply and demand in the wheat market and the environment of our policy and system. This paper tends to provide some referential basis for the scientific establishment of China’s grain price control policy through the above analysis.The specific research contents, method and main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Chapter III of this paper defines scientifically the fluctuation cycle and analyzes the factors of the price of wheat in China by time-trend remove method, Analysis shows that:(1) The price of wheat in China has experienced seven cyclical fluctuations since1978, wheat prices shows obvious features of cyclical fluctuations, but there is no a certain regularity price fluctuation cycle.(2) To analyze the reasons for the price of wheat was found cyclical changes in supply and demand changes in the price of wheat is still the the dominant factor in production costs and other factors on the price of wheat has brought a considerable degree of impact, while state regulatory policies on the volatility of wheat prices there is a certain inhibition; fluctuations in market prices of wheat through the inter-regional characteristics analysis showed that:China’s provinces and sales areas of wheat price fluctuations in the western provinces of the coefficient of variation was significantly higher than the coefficient of variation of price fluctuations areas. This will to some extent, sales areas and western provinces of wheat production in the wheat market, the weak nature of species may be enlarged, the price volatility than larger areas.The fourth chapter theoretically analyzes the causes and the impact mechanism of wheat price fluctuation from the aspects of supply and demand and external shocks. Analysis shows that:(1) The main causes of the fluctuation of wheat market price are coming from the factors of supply and demand, the macroeconomic situation and policy changes, etc. The combined effect of multiple factors led to the changes of supply and demand in wheat market, making wheat market price in the state of fluctuation;(2) The scattered, small-scale cropping patterns, coupled with the no perfect industrial processing and circulation system and the increasing cost of production affect the fundamental stability in the wheat supply market. The demand of wheat in China has rigid stability because of consumption habits which expands the effect of fluctuation.Chapter IV empirically analyzes the influence of supply and demand factors and external shocks on wheat market price by the construction of price factor model and the use of supply and demand theory and market equilibrium methods on the basis of the analysis in the fourth chapter. Analysis shows that:(1) Price and other cost factors of production are the main driving force to promote the market price of wheat;(2) Farmers’ market expectation is also a factor of price fluctuation;(3) The price fluctuation of competing crops has significantly effect on the market price of wheat;(4) The effect of demanding factors including income levels and population growth rate is not significant;(5) The reform of circulation system which reflects the regulation and control policy of national food market has a significant impact on the price of wheat;(6) The impact of natural disasters on the wheat market prices is significant.Chapter VI mainly analyzes the transmission effect of market price fluctuation of wheat from the perspectives of both regional markets in China and domestic and international markets. In terms of the transmission effect of domestic market:(1) The wheat markets in China between regions show cointegration relationship, and the price fluctuation price changes in a region can lead to price changes in another area in the long term.(2) The result of the error correction model shows that the long-term equilibrium relationship between the wheat regional markets restricts the short-term price fluctuation. Such an error correction mechanism departure can decrease the deviation between the prices and make the price adjustment to equilibrium. Besides adjustment ability in the production areas could be generally greater than the ability in the sales areas.(3) The results of Granger causality test show that the guiding effect of market price in the wheat-growing areas on the market price in the sales areas is significant, however the guiding effect of market price in the sales areas on the market price in wheat-growing areas is weak.Chapter VII analyzes the impact of price fluctuation on the production and supply of wheat, starting from the characteristics of production price reaction of the wheat by establishing the price of production response model according to the theory of supply of agricultural products and assumption of farmers’ rational decision-making. The results show that:(1) The reflection of wheat production to the price fluctuation is insensitive in short order, while it is flexible of the supply of wheat and there is reflection of wheat production to the price fluctuation in long order;(2) The seeded areas in short order show strong rigidity because farmers planting decisions are influenced by the fixed elements.Chapter VIII puts forward some policy measures to promote the health operation and stable development of the wheat market on the basis of the above research conclusions from the aspects of completing price control system, strengthening agricultural infrastructure and R&D and promotion, standarizing the agricultural market, ensuring the更多还原