【作者】 刘应元；

【导师】 冯中朝；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 长期以来,我国沉浸在工业化快速发展的显著呈现中,对工业化引发的环境问题以及向农村的蔓延尚未给予足够的重视。中国是农业大国,拥有数量庞大的农业从业人员,解决好农村生态环境及农业生产环境问题,实现农业资源的适度开发与高效循环利用,既是两型农业建设的要求,也是寻求“三农”问题解决的路径突破与重要选择,有助于实现农业的良性可持续发展,更是奠定了国民经济持续健康发展与国家安全的基础。而要推动农业的可持续发展,必须重视农业的生态效益,实现农业更快更好的发展。本研究就湖北省现代农业产业发展现状(基于生态视角)、农业产业生态福利的测度与模糊评价以及农业产业生态福利实现过程中各利益主体博弈行为及特征进行了全面的统计与测度分析,较为全面的了解湖北省农业产业发展的生态福利现状、发展趋势以发展潜力,并且全面系统了解湖北省农业产业发展生态效率及产业可持续发展的现状的基础上,最终提出了全面提升我省农业产业生态福利水平的策略。主要研究工作及结论如下：(一)湖北省农业产业生态福利指数呈现持续下降趋势,农业产业可持续发展遇到瓶颈第一,1990-2011年湖北省农业人口发展指数、农业人口的人均生态足迹与农业经济发展同步增长。第二,农业产业发展的生态福利指数呈现波动变化,总体呈现下降趋势,且在2000年达到农业产业生态福利的峰值1.9773,本文将湖北省农业发展生态福利的演变划分为5个阶段：第一个阶段(1990-1993),湖北省农业产业生态福利指数呈现逐渐下降趋势；第二个阶段(1993-1994),农业产业发展的生态福利指数上升；第三阶段(1994-1998)湖北农业产业发展的生态福利指数呈现微弱波动下降趋势；第四阶段(1998-2000),湖北省农业产业发展的生态福利指数反弹,快速增加并达到生态福利指数峰值；第五阶段(2000-2011),湖北省农业产业发展生态福利指数在微弱波动中呈现快速下降趋势。虽然湖北省农业发展呈现一定的福利水平增长趋势,但是由于农业产业的生态资源负荷的增长远远超过了生态福利的增长幅度,引致农业产业生态福利指数的波动下滑。第三,1990-2011年湖北省农业产业发展的演变可以划分为三个阶段,经历了由可持续性减弱到增强再到减弱的变化。第四,19902011年,湖北省农业人口发展指数与人均产值双双增长,但是随着人均产值的迅速增长,农业人口发展指数增长趋势逐步放缓。随着湖北省农业经济的快速发展,农业经济增长带来的经济福利和生态福利门槛还未到达,但是增速放慢,意味着在向门槛值靠近。换句话说,湖北省近20年的农业发展模式已经不适应当前生态需求日盛的形势,农业经济增长的生态福利门槛很快到达。(二)湖北农业产业生态福利主要受到农户的生产生活方式及农业自然生态环境变化的制约,其产业生态福利水平为一般,有较大提升空间一是,当前农业产业生态福利微观视角的测度或评价主要由农户生产方式影响维度、农户生活方式影响维度、农业自然生态环境影响维度三块主要内容,这其中各因子的方差贡献率依次为：农户生产方式影响占比为23.42%,农户生活方式影响因子占比为16.73%,农业自然生态环境影响因子占比为14.36%,三因子累计比例达到了54.51%。二是利用农户调研数据,基于模糊综合评价结果表明当前农业产业发展方式下的生态福利水平仍有较大改善空间,福利测度结果仅为71.38,参照有关标准认定评价情况“一般”。三是基于实证分析结果给予的政策涵义包括：(1)加强认识,注重舆论力量,切实加快农业增长方式的转变；(2)关注农业生产实际,引导农民生产种植习惯,普及亲环境的农业生产技术和组织方式；(3)加强农村生态文明建设,提高居民环保意识,积极营造良好的村庄环境；(4)重视农村生态环境保护,改善水土质量,加大环境污染惩治力度,构建和谐美好的外部环境。(三)农业产业生态福利相关利益主体的利益诉求存在差异,农业产业生态福利目标难以实现就农业产业生态目标实现过程中的利益主体博弈行为特征展开的分析,研究分析表明中央政府、地方政府和农业产业经营者在农业产业生态目标实现过程中的利益诉求并不一致,再加上中央政府与地方政府间、地方政府与农业产业经营者间、中央政府与农业生产者存在较为显著的信息不对称问题,严重制约产业生态目标的实现。以三方主体的动态博弈模型为基础,寻求利益均衡点,可知：一方面,各利益主体在农业产业生态目标的实现过程中的参与主体是一种非零和游戏,存在共同利益诉求,三者的利益均衡点是存在的,因此各利益主体有持续供给努力的动力；另外一方面在理论上可以预见,当中央政府、地方政府和农业产业经营者在农业产业生态目标实现过程中的努力投入显著异于零时,农业产业生态福利水平的目标能够得以实现,各方都能达成自身的利益诉求。文章的最后提出了：加强政府法规体系、组织管理机制、社会参与机制、资金投入机制、信息网络建设机制的建立与完善的政策建议。同时,提出了调控农资供应市场,建立生态农业补偿机制；制定农业环境相关标准,加强生态农产品管理；鼓励生态农业技术创新,开发农业环保技术等未来政策趋向。主要的创新点为：(1)研究视角上具有一定的新意。已有的关于福利的研究大多侧重于经济福利和社会福利,对生态福利的研究较少；已有的关于农业产业的研究多集中在宏观方面,主要有宏观发展趋势、战略策略以及模式与效益等,对产业福利的研究很少。笔者提出了农业产业的生态福利问题,这既是对福利研究的补充,也是对农业产业研究的扩展,具有一定的创新。(2)研究方法应用上具有一定的新意。关于生态福利测度的研究,已有的研究大多集中在宏观层面上,从环境的角度出发分析生态效益。本文扩展了已有的研究路径,分别从宏观层面、微观层面进行生态福利测度的定量研究,并尝试构建三方动态博弈来分析农业产业生态主体的福利状况。(3)研究内容具有一定的新意,且取得了一些有价值的结论。根据课题研究内容,展开了微观层面与和宏观层面生态福利的实证研究,主要在两个方面取得了一些有价值的结论,一是湖北省农业产业生态福利指数呈现持续下降趋势,农业产业的生态福利营造及产业持续发展面临环境与资源压力；二是湖北省农业产业生态福利的主要制约因素是农户生产生活方式及农业自然生态环境,且产业生态福利水平不高,有较大提升空间。更多还原

【Abstract】 For a long time, our country is paying attention to industry of environmental protection and urban environmental problems while ignoring the rural ecological environment protection;at the same time,the academia is not to the rural ecological environment protection as the important object of study. As the world’s most populous and on agriculture as the main body of Chinese population, protect rural ecological environment, promote the rational development and efficient utilization of agricultural resources, is not only an important part of building a conservation oriented agriculture, but also a major measure to solve the"Agriculture,Countryside and Farmer"issues and achieve sustainable development of agriculture and plays an important role in the healthy development of the national economy and state safety. To promote the sustainable development of agriculture,our country must pay attention to the ecological benefits of agriculture, realize agriculture better and faster development. The study current situation of the development of modern agriculture industry in hubei province (based on the ecological perspective), measure and the fuzzy evaluation of ecological benefits of agricultural industry and agricultural industry ecological benefits achieved all the stakeholders in the process of game behavior and characteristics of the comprehensive statistics and measure analysis, a more comprehensive understanding the present situation of the ecological benefits for the development of agricultural industry in hubei province, development trend, development potential and a comprehensive system to understand the ecological efficiency of the agricultural industry development in hubei province and the present situation of the industrial sustainable development, on the basis of the final proposed comprehensively promotes our province agricultural ecological welfare level of strategy. The main research work and conclusions are as follows:(a) In Hubei province, agriculture ecological welfare index showed a trend of declining industry, the sustainable development of agriculture industry bottlenecks encounteredFirst,from1990to2011the population of Hubei Agricultural Development Index per capita ecological footprint of agriculture simultaneous growth of population and agricultural economic development pace.Second, the ecological benefits of agriculture industry development index showed fluctuations, the overall downward trend and reached a peak of1.9773agricultural ecological benefits in2000, this paper divided the development of agricultural development in Hubei Province ecological benefit into5stages:the first stage(1990-1993), the Hubei province agriculture industrial ecological welfare index decreased; second stage(1993-1994), the agricultural industry development and ecological well-being index rose; the third stage(1994-1998) the development of Hubei agriculture ecological welfare index showed a weak fluctuation a downward trend; the fourth stage(1998-2000), the development of agricultural industrialization in Hubei Province Ecological Welfare index rebound, the rapid increases and reaches a peak of fifth Ecological Welfare Index;fifth stage(2000-2011), index of ecological benefits the development of agricultural industrialization in Hubei province showed a rapid downward trend in the weak fluctuation. Although the development of agricultural industry in hubei province ecological welfare level enhances unceasingly, but due to the growth of the agricultural ecological resource load far exceeds the ecological benefits of growth, leading to decline in agricultural ecological welfare index volatility. Third, in1990-2011the evolution of agricultural industry development in Hubei province can be divided into three stages, experienced by the sustainable reduced to the enhancement and weakening change. Fourth,1990-2011, Hubei Province, the agricultural population development index and the agricultural production value of average per capita has also increased, but with the rapid growth of agricultural output value per person, the agricultural population development index trend growth slowing. With the rapid development of economy of Hubei province agriculture, agricultural economic growth economic benefits and ecological benefits are still reach threshold.But But growth is slowing down, means that near to the threshold. In other words, the agricultural development mode in Hubei Province in recent20years has not adapted to the current situation of ecological demand is growing, the growth of agricultural economy and ecological well-being threshold arrive soon.(b) The peasant way of life and the natural ecological environment of agriculture is an important factor that affects the Hubei province agriculture industrial ecological benefits.The Hubei province agriculture industrial ecological welfare in a general level,and have a bigger promotion spaceFirst, the current agricultural ecological benefits from the perspective of measurement or evaluation is mainly composed of farmers production, farmer life style factors influence dimension, the natural ecological environment of agriculture influence of dimension three main contents, the variance contribution rate of each factor in turn: household production accounted for23.42%, farmer life style factors accounted for16.73%, the natural ecological environment of agriculture factors accounted for14.36%, three factor accumulation ratio reached54.51%. Two is the use of household survey data, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results show that the current development of Ecological Welfare agricultural industry still has a great space to improve the welfare measure based on the results, only71.38, with reference to the relevant standards for evaluation of "general". The three is the empirical analysis results and policy implications based on given including:(1) strengthen the understanding, focus on the force of public opinion, to accelerate the transformation of agricultural growth mode;(2) pay attention to agricultural production practice, guiding farmers to plant habit, popularization of dear environment of agricultural production technology and organization mode;(3) strengthen the rural ecological civilization construction, raising the environmental awareness of residents, and actively create a good village environment;(4) pay attention to the rural ecological environment protection, improve water quality, increase environmental pollution punishment, build a harmonious external environment.(c) The interests of agricultural ecological benefits of stakeholders have different goals, ecological benefits of agricultural industry is difficult to achieveOn the analysis of agricultural ecological goal game behavior in the process of development, research and analysis shows that the central government, local government and agricultural industry operators are not consistent in the agricultural ecological objective interests. In the process, coupled with the central government and local government, local government and agricultural industry between the operators, the central government and the agricultural industry operators have distinct information forces known problems, realize agricultural ecological objectives leads to restrict the behavior of stakeholders. Through the game analysis model of three parties and the final solution, and obtain the following policy implications:on the one hand, have shared interests of all stakeholders in the implementation process of agricultural ecological objectives, can form a win-win situation, therefore the stakeholders need to continue to supply efforts; the other hand can foresee in theory, when the central government, local government and the agricultural industry operators in the ecological agriculture industry in the process of achieving the objective of effort is significantly different from zero, the welfare level agricultural ecological objectives can be achieved, the parties can reach their own appeal. The article finally proposed: We should strengthen the government regulation system, organization and management mechanism, social participation mechanism, investment mechanism, the establishment and perfection of mechanism of information network construction. At the same time, put forward to control the supply of agricultural means of production market, establish ecological agriculture compensation mechanism; to establish the agricultural environment related standards, strengthen ecological agricultural products management;encouraging ecological agriculture technology innovation, develop the agriculture of environmental protection, such as technology policy trend in the future.The main innovation point:(1) The research perspective and content has a new idea. Research on welfare has mostly focused on the economy and social welfare, but about ecological benefits’researchs are less; Study on agricultural industry has mostly focused on the agricultural industry development present situation, problem, countermeasure, pattern, benefit, the industrial welfare research rarely. The author puts forward the ecological benefits of agricultural industry, this is a supplement to the welfare research, extension of agricultural industry research, has some innovation.(2) The research methods have some new ideas on the application. The existing research on Ecological welfare measure mostly concentrated on the macro level, from the environmental perspective analysis of ecological benefit. This paper extends the existing research path, quantitative study of ecological welfare measure separately from the macro level, micro level analysis, and try to build three side dynamic game to analyze tripartite welfare of agricultural ecological subjects.(3) And obtain some valuable conclusions. According to the research, an empirical study on the micro level and macro level, mainly in two aspects to obtain some valuable conclusions, one is the Hubei province agriculture industrial ecological welfare index has continued to decline, the sustainable development of agriculture industry bottlenecks encountered; The second is farmer’s production and life style and the natural ecological environment of agriculture is an important factor that affects the Hubei province agriculture industrial ecological benefits, the Hubei province agriculture industrial ecological welfare level for the general, have bigger promotion space.更多还原