【作者】 马琼；

【导师】 王雅鹏；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 棉花是关系国计民生的重要战略物资和保证我国纺织工业持续发展的重要原材料,棉花生产事关国家农业布局和粮食安全,也涉及棉区经济发展、劳动力就业和农民增收。棉花产业是一个产业链长,就业人口多,影响面广,对国民经济平衡发展极其重要的产业部门。但由于发达国家对棉花生产的高额补贴,包括中国在内的许多发展中棉花生产大国在国际棉花市场上失去定价权；加之受经济长波和2008年以来的金融危机影响,棉花产业大幅波动,棉农收入锐减,西方发达国家的那些享受国家高额补贴的少数棉农威胁着广大发展中国家贫困棉农的收入,给我国棉花产业安全带来巨大威胁和严峻的挑战。从发达国家目前的国内支持和补贴政策看,棉花贸易是国际贸易不平等关系的典型例子。美国和其他发达经济体的棉花生产和出口长期接受政府给予的大量补贴,另一方面又对中国具有竞争优势的纺织服装产品实行严格的进口限制,这一切造成了国际棉花贸易关系的不平等。棉花生产外部性及其矫正研究是基于棉花产业安全考虑,以新疆棉区为例,从棉花生产的正、负外部性两个方面测定棉花生产综合外部性,以此作为确定棉花补贴标准和补贴方式的依据,回答为什么进行棉花补贴、补贴多少、对谁补贴的问题,对科学制定我国棉花补贴政策,增强棉花产业竞争力,保护我国棉花产业具有极重要的意义。文章通过对农业外部性现象的观察,运用“庇古税”理论和科斯的产权理论分析和解释了外部性问题对棉花生产的影响,讨论了解决棉花生产外部性问题的制度选择,认为棉花补贴是解决棉花生产外部性问题更有效的途径。文章运用条件价值法、分解求和法、参数比照法、直接市场法以及替代成本法等多种方法相结合,对中国棉花生产的生态环境价值、自然景观价值、社会保障等正外部效应,以及棉花生产中使用化学物质、化石能源和水资源造成的环境污染、碳排放、生态损失等环境负外部效应进行测定,计算了中国棉花生产的综合外部性价值,将其作为制定棉花产业补贴标准的依据。以新疆棉花生产为典型案例,根据中国棉花生产外部性价值的测定方法与结果,评估了新疆棉花生产的正外部性价值和负外部性成本,确定了棉花生产综合外部性。在外部性价值评估中,运用分解求和法列举了全国棉花生产的20项外部性影响；其中,列举的棉花生产正外部性影响10项,负外部性影响10项。先分项计算,其结果为,2012年中国棉花生产的正外部性价值352.36×108RMB￥,负外部性成本为76.1033×108RMB￥。最后汇总求和,得出中国棉花生产正外部性价值大于负外部性成本,其综合外部性价值为276.2563×108RMB￥,约合44.56×108US$,按当年棉花种植面积计算,单位面积外部性价值为5892.8RMB￥.hm-2。对新疆400户居民支付意愿调查研究表明,2012年新疆棉花生产的社会保障、农业景观等正外部性价值为66.3871×108RMB￥;参照全国棉花生产外部性价值的评估方法,运用分解求和法计算的新疆棉花生产的碳汇功能价值为56.7776×108RMB￥。对棉花生产的生物多样性损失、环境污染、水资源浪费损失等方面的评估结果表明,2012年新疆棉花生产的环境负外部成本为36.9099×108RMB￥,其中灌溉水浪费的环境价值损失为24.4827×108RMB￥,是新疆棉花生产最主要的负外部性成本。正外部性价值和负外部性成本两方面综合计算,新疆棉花生产正外部性价值大于负外部性成本,2012年其综合外部性价值高达86.2548×108RMB￥。在棉花生产正、负外部效应测定的基础上,运用市场均衡原理和外部性理论,从棉花生产的弱质性、多功能性和外部性特征,以及中国棉花的供给安全形势,讨论了棉花补贴的必要性和合理性。根据外部性理论中消除正、负外部性的思路,借鉴国外经验,设计了棉花生产环节和国内流通环节的补贴标准、补贴对象、补贴方式等棉花补贴政策方案。参照棉花生产的外部性价值,考虑政府财政实力,我国棉花补贴标准应介于美国和巴西、土耳其的棉花补贴标准之间。因此,我国棉花补贴标准应确定为0.2-0.4US$.kg-1,或者300-600US$.hm-2,20-40US$.mu-1;若按此标准补贴,政府每年大约需要花费棉花补贴资金174×1O8RMB￥,约合28×108US$.a-1,这只占我国棉花生产正外部性价值的63%。按照这一补贴标准,设计的我国棉花补贴项目共计12项。其中,以种棉补贴和农业环境保护补贴、棉农养老保险补贴和最低收入补贴、棉花生产投入品补贴为主,分别为53.7×108RMB￥,39.8×108RMB￥、31.4×108RMB￥,三类补贴占方案总补贴资金的73.5%。补贴对象主要是棉农,补贴项目有8项,主要是考虑了棉花生产巨大的社会、生态环境正外部性价值。最后提出,在实施棉花补贴政策时,政府应加强棉花生产基础设施建设和提供公共服务,建立包括棉花统计信息体系、棉花补贴政策执行监督机制、棉花信息反馈机制等棉花补贴政策保障机制,以保障补贴政策顺利实施,棉农真正得到实惠。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cotton is the strategic material related to national interest and people’s livelihood. It is also the vital raw material to guarantee the sustainable development of textile industry in China. Cotton production is very closely connected with the national distribution of agriculture and food security, economic development in cotton reign, the employment and farmers’ income increase. Cotton industry has a long industrial chain which is related to large employed population, with immense influence scale, cotton industry is extremely important to the balanced development of national economy. But it faces huge threat and sever challenge because the developed countries have given such high subsides to their cotton production that the developing cotton-producing countries including china have lost the pricing power in international cotton markets. Additionally, for the impact of financial crisis in2008and economic long wave, the cotton industry fluctuates greatly and the income for cotton farmers drops sharply. The minority cotton farmers in developed countries who enjoy high subsides threat the cotton-farmers’ income in a lot of poor developing countries.From the perspective of present subsidy policies and domestic supports of developed countries, cotton trade is the typical case of international trade inequality. The USA and other developed economic entity have given high subsidies to their cotton production and export for long time, on the other hand, also strictly limit the import of Chinese textile-clothing production which has competitive advantage for China. All of this has consequenced international trade inequality.This study on cotton production externality and its adjustment are based on the consideration of cotton production security, taking Xinjiang for example, using cotton production externality which is measured from two aspects:positive externality and negative externality so, we can make the cotton subsidy standard and method and also figure out the reasen, scale and targets of subsidies, which is very meaningful to scientifically formulate our cotton subsidy policy, to enhance our cotton industry competitiveness and to protect our cotton industry.By observing agricultural externality phenomena and using Pigovian Tax theory and Kos’s Equity theory, this paper analyzes and explains the impact of externality to cotton production and discusses the policy choice to solve the externality problems. It is suggested in this research that subsidy is a much more effective way to solve externality problem for cotton production. Taking the cotton region in Xinjiang for example, using Contingent Valuation Method, Decompose Summation Method, Parameters according to Law Method, Direct Marketing Method, Displacement Cost Method and so on, this paper measures the positive external effects of eco-environmental value, natural landscape value, social security etc., and the environmental negative effects from pollution, carbon emission, ecological loses etc., Negative effects are results of using chemical substances, fossil energy and water in cotton industry chain. Furthermore, according to the assay method and the result of Xinjiang cotton production external value, this paper assesses the cost of negative externality and the value of positive externality for our national cotton production, together ensuring the cotton production comprehensive externality which is the basement to make the subsidy standard of cotton industry.This paper lists20items of external influencing factors for national cotton production First, by subentry calculation, for national cotton production in2012, the result is that the positive external value is352.36x10RMB and the negative external cost is76.1033×108RMB. Finally, by summarizing, the result is that the positive external value is larger than negative external cost for national cotton production and the comprehensive external value is276.2563×108RMB, about44.56×108dollar, that is to say unit area external value is5892.8RMB per hm2according to the cotton plantation area very year. Therein, there are10positive external influential items and10negative external influential items for itemization calculation.After investigating400residents’willingness-to-pay at Xinjiang in2012, it is indicated that the positive external value for cotton production from social security, agriculture and so on is66.3871×108RMB; Referring to the assessment method and result of external value of china cotton production and using Decompose Summation Method, the carbon sink function value for cotton production is56.7776×108RMB by Decompose Summation Method. The result from assessing cotton producing biodiversity loses, environmental pollution, water waste and so on indicate that the environmental negative external cost, for cotton production is36.9099×108RMB in2012, among which environmental value loses from irrigating water waste, as a major negative external cost for cotton production is24.4827×108RMB, on the other side, the positive external value is larger than negative external cost, And the comprehensive external value reaches the height of86.2548×108RMB for Xinjiang cotton production in2012. Basing on the measurement of positive and negative external effect and using Market Equilibrium theory and Externality theory, this paper discusses the necessity and rationality from such aspects as cotton production’s feebleness, polyfunctionality and externality feature and the cotton supply security situation on national level. According to the thinking of eliminating positive and negative externality in Externality theory and referring to the experience of foreign countries, this paper designs the cotton subsidy policy initiatives about the standard, object, and method of subsides during the process of cotton production and domestic intermediate. Referring to external value of cotton production and considering the government financial power, our national cotton subsidy standard should below the USA and above Brazil and Turkey,namely,0.2-0.4dollar per kg,20-40dollar per mu or300-600dollar per hm2. According to the subsidy standard, the annual cost for government is about174×108RMB, or28×108dollar per year, around63%of our positive cotton production externality value. By this standard, we designs12national cotton subsidy items, among which the major ones are the subsidies of planting and agri-environmental protection, life insurance for cotton farmers and minimum income and cotton produce investment, These three types of subsidy occupy73.5%of the total subsidies, with53.7×108RMB,39.8×108RMB、31.4×108RMB respectively. Mainly considering the huge social and eco-environment positive external value for cotton production, the subsidy object is cotton farmers who have8subsidy items.Finally, suggestions are that the government shoud:a) enhance the construction of cotton production infrastructures; b) supply public service; c) set up cotton subsidy policy; d) safeguard mechanism including cotton statistical information system and cotton subsidy policy; e) enact supervisory mechanism, cotton information feedback mechanism and so on to ensure that the subsidy policy is carried out smoothly and the cotton farmers really get the benefit.更多还原