【作者】 孟祥海；

【导师】 程国强； 张俊飚；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国畜牧业取得了显著的发展成就,畜产品总产量和人均产量均大幅增加,畜牧业产值在农业总产值中的比重大幅提高。2010年我国生猪、蛋鸡和奶牛规模化养殖所占比例分别为64.5%、78.8%和46.5%,规模化水平不断提高。畜牧业饲养模式的转变直接导致了我国畜禽粪便排放密度增加、农牧脱节严重,对环境造成严重威胁。第一次全国污染源普查动态更新数据显示,2010年我国畜禽养殖业主要水污染物排放量中COD、NH3-N排放量分别是当年工业源排放量的3.23倍、2.3倍,分别占全国污染物排放总量的45%、25%,畜牧业已成为我国环境污染的重要来源。同时,畜牧业还是重要的温室气体排放源,2006年联合国粮农组织发布的《畜牧业长长的阴影—环境问题与解决方案》指出,若将畜牧业饲料生产用地及养殖场土地占用引起的土地用途变化考虑在内,按CO2当量计算,全球畜牧业温室气体排放占人类活动温室气体排放总量的18%,畜牧业已成为造成气候变化的重要威胁。本文从宏观上把握我国畜牧业发展现状,科学量化我国畜牧业氮磷排放对水体、土壤造成的污染和畜牧业全生命周期温室气体排放状况,进一步把握我国畜牧业环境污染的时空特征,分析畜牧业环境污染与经济增长之间的长期关系；从微观上分析畜禽养殖场开展环境污染防治意愿的影响因素,并选择典型案例剖析养殖场开展污染防治的措施及效益。在此基础上,梳理和评述我国中央和地方现行的畜牧业环境污染防治政策,并借鉴欧美等发达国家的防治经验,提出适于我国畜牧业发展实际的环境污染防治策略,具有良好的理论和实践价值。本文主要研究内容为：研究背景、研究目的与意义、国内外研究动态与述评、概念界定与理论基础(第1、2章),我国畜牧业发展与环境污染时空特征(第3章),我国畜牧业环境污染与经济增长关系分析(第4章),畜禽养殖场环境污染防治意愿分析：以武汉市为例(第5章),畜禽养殖场环境污染防治个案分析(第6章)和我国畜牧业环境污染防治策略(第7章)。主要研究结论如下：(1)我国畜牧业在迅速发展的同时,环境污染问题显现。基于环境承载力和生命周期理论的实证分析表明,我国畜牧业环境污染形势严峻,畜牧业氮磷排放造成水体和土壤环境的承载压力超标的同时,畜牧业温室气体排放总量呈上升趋势,已成为新的环境污染问题。与改革开放初期相比,我国畜牧业综合生产能力显著增强,人均畜禽产品占有量大幅提高,畜禽产品结构逐步优化,形成了区域化的畜禽生产布局,畜禽养殖标准化、规模化水平提高,畜禽良种建设成效显著,已建立起完善的畜牧技术推广体系,畜禽养殖上下游产业链间进一步融合,涌现出广东温氏、中粮肉食、新希望、罗牛山、雏鹰农牧等一系列大型畜禽养殖企业集团,加速了我国畜牧业现代化进程。基于环境承载力理论的实证分析表明：考虑化肥使用和农作物需肥量等因素,1990-2011年22年间我国畜牧业对水体、土壤环境的污染压力总体上呈现出“逐年上升—平稳回落”的两阶段特征。水环境超载已成为各地区畜牧业发展面临的首要环境约束,土壤环境超载次之。2011年,除西藏外我国大陆地区其它省份畜牧业氮磷排放均呈现环境承载超标；经济区划间对比表明：土壤环境承载压力指数从大到小依此为中部、东部、西部和东北地区,水体环境承载压力指数从大到小依此为东部、中部、东北和西部地区；畜牧业区划间对比表明：土壤环境承载压力指数从大到小依此为农区、牧区和农牧交错区,水体环境承载压力指数从大到小依此为农牧交错区、农区和牧区。基于生命周期评价方法的实证分析表明：1990-2011年22年间我国畜牧业全生命周期及各个环节的CO2当量排放量均呈现上升趋势,尤其是畜禽饲养耗能、饲料粮种植、饲料粮运输加工和畜禽屠宰加工环节的增长更为显著,但历年饲料粮运输加工和畜禽屠宰加工环节占畜牧业全生命周期C02当量排放总量的比重均低于1%和0.05%；家畜胃肠道发酵和粪便管理系统环节占畜牧业全生命周期C02当量排放总量的比重呈下降趋势；22年间,反刍家畜的C02当量排放量占55.25%,非反刍畜禽占44.75%。2011年,我国大陆地区内蒙古、辽宁和云南的畜牧业全生命周期CO2排放当量和排放强度均位居全国前10位；西部地区畜牧业全生命周期CO2当量排放量所占比重最大,并且西部地区的排放强度最高；农区畜牧业全生命周期CO2当量排放量占63.88%,牧区占14.07%,但牧区的排放强度最高,农区最低。(2)运用EKC理论验证我国畜牧业环境污染与经济增长之间的关系发现：畜牧业对水体和土壤造成的环境污染与人均GDP之间符合倒“U”型曲线关系,且已跨过曲线“拐点”呈良性发展趋势；畜牧业温室气体排放强度呈线性下降趋势,与人均GDP之间不符合倒“U”型曲线关系。本文在系统阐述环境污染与经济增长理论关系的基础上,采用1990-2011年22年间反映我国畜牧业环境污染程度的3项指标：畜禽粪便排放引起的土壤氮素超载量、水环境承载压力指数和畜牧业温室气体排放强度,在时间序列平稳的前提下,分别对历年人均GDP进行回归分析,验证是否符合EKC曲线。研究表明：畜牧业氮磷排放对土壤和水体造成的环境污染与人均GDP之间符合倒“U”型曲线关系,且已跨过曲线“拐点”呈良性发展趋势；畜牧业全生命周期温室气体排放强度呈线性下降趋势,与人均GDP之间不符合倒“U”型曲线关系。总体而言,我国畜牧业环境污染随着经济增长已呈现出缓和的趋势。(3)运用二元Logistic回归模型分析畜禽养殖场环境污染防治意愿的影响因素,研究表明：养殖场养殖规模、土地经营规模、畜禽污染防治经济成本和来自环保部门的监管压力对养殖场开展环境污染防治的概率具有显著的正向影响。武汉市畜牧业的发展在一定程度上是我国畜牧业发展的一个缩影,选择武汉市作为样本区域,具有一定的代表性。2000年后,针对畜牧业发展引发的环境污染问题,武汉市政府先后出台了一系列污染防治政策。本文在梳理武汉市畜牧业发展与环境污染防治政策的基础上,选取武汉市年出栏500头以上的103家猪场为样本,运用二元Logistisc回归模型对养殖场开展环境污染防治的意愿进行实证分析,研究表明：养殖场养殖规模、土地经营规模、畜禽污染治理经济成本和来自环保部门的监管压力对规模化养殖场开展畜禽污染治理的概率具有显著的正向影响。养殖场决策者年龄、文化程度、养殖年限、近3年效益情况、融资渠道是否畅通、对畜禽污染程度的认知、是否认为畜禽养殖会加剧全球气候变暖、是否因养殖场环保问题影响到与周边村民、村委会或政府的关系对养殖场开展环境污染防治不具有显著影响。(4)采用案例分析方法,研究武汉银河猪场开展环境污染防治的效益,研究表明：武汉银河猪场通过建设大型沼气治污工程、实施土地流转与整理开发、严格规范生猪饲养管理、开展粪污资源化利用和农牧一体化经营,较好地解决了猪场环境污染问题,并构建起种养结合循环农业系统,实现了良好的经济效益,与单纯的生猪养殖相比,该循环农业系统在资源减量化程度、环境承载压力状况、生产效率和经济效益方面均占优势。(5)提出我国畜牧业环境污染防治策略。结合前文研究结果,梳理和评述我国现行的畜牧业环境污染防治政策,借鉴欧美等发达国家的污染防治经验,充分考虑我国畜牧业在国民经济中的地位和行业特点,统筹兼顾畜牧业发展和环境污染防治两大目标,提出强化畜牧业环境污染防治体系建设,加大政策扶持力度、健全激励机制,完善污染防治技术标准和规范,加强污染防治技术研发、示范和推广,推动污染防治宣传教育和大力推动畜牧业温室气体减排等污染防治策略。本文可能以下有3点创新：(1)研究选题具有新颖性。现有研究多集中于对畜牧业氮磷污染领域的分析,本文将畜牧业氮磷排放和温室气体排放一并纳入畜牧业环境污染的分析框架,运用环境承载理论和生命周期分析方法定量测度我国畜牧业环境污染时空特征,并进一步把握我国畜牧业环境污染与经济增长之间的长期关系,拓展了既定的研究内容,丰富了现有的研究体系,研究选题具有一定新颖性。(2)研究方法的应用有所创新。在现有的研究中,大多集中于畜牧业氮磷污染所形成的对土壤或水体单个领域污染的风险分析,本文则基于环境承载理论,综合考虑化肥使用、农作物吸收、牧区粪便燃烧等因素,科学测算了我国畜牧业对土壤、水体环境的污染程度及时空特征；与此同时,在对畜牧业温室气体排放研究方面,目前的研究大多侧重于对畜禽饲养和粪便管理系统等直接排放的温室气体的分析,而本文则运用生命周期理论,依据家畜胃肠道发酵、粪便管理系统、畜禽饲养环节耗能、饲料粮种植、饲料粮运输加工和畜禽产品屠宰加工6大环节的调查数据,从全生命周期的角度测算了我国畜牧业温室气体的排放量及排放特征,在研究方法上具有一定的创新性。(3)研究内容具有一定创新,获得了一些有价值的结论。在宏观研究层面,基于环境承载力和生命周期理论方法测算我国畜牧业环境污染时空特征,并运用EKC理论验证我国畜牧业环境污染与经济增长之间的长期关系；在微观研究层面,选择典型区域开展问卷调查,分析畜禽养殖场污染防治意愿的影响因素,并采用典型案例剖析养殖场开展污染防治的措施及效益；在污染防治策略的提出层面,梳理我国现行的畜牧业环境污染防治政策,借鉴国际畜牧业环境污染防治经验,统筹兼顾畜牧业发展和环境污染防治两大目标,提出适于我国国情的畜牧业环境污染防治策略,具有一定创新性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Livestock industry has achieved remarkable development effectiveness in China, the livestock production and per capita output increased substantially, the proportion of animal husbandry output value of agricultural output increased significantly, since the Reform and Opening-up. In2010, the proportion of large-scale breeding pigs, hens and cows in our country were64.5%,78.8%, and46.5%, the level of large-scale farming of our country’s livestock is increasing. The changes in livestock feeding patterns directly lead to increased emissions from livestock manure density and pastoral disjointed seriously, that threat to the environment seriously. The first national census of pollution sources dynamically updated data show that the water pollutant emissions of COD, NH3-N from livestock are respectively3.23times,2.3times from industrial sources, respectively accounting to the country’s total emissions45%,25%, livestock industry has become an important source of our country’s environmental pollution in2010. Meanwhile, livestock industry is also an important source of GHG emissions,"Livestock’s Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Solutions" which was published by FAO in2006pointed that, if take the livestock feed production land and the use change of land caused by farm land occupation, the global livestock sector accounts for18percent of GHG emissions from human activities’GHG calculated by CO2equivalent. Livestock industry has become a major threat to climate change.Based on the macro-perspective, this paper described the current situation of our country’s livestock development, quantified the pollution levels of water or soil by manure emissions and the status of livestock GHG emissions, analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of livestock pollution, seized the long-term relationship between livestock environmental pollution and economic growth. Based on the micro-perspective, this paper analyzed the factors which affecting the livestock and poultry farms to carry out the wishes of environmental pollution prevention, and selected the typical case which carried out environmental pollution prevention, analyzed its measures and benefits. Then, this paper combing and commentary the existing central and local prevention policies in livestock pollution, and learned from the prevention experience of American and European countries. Finally, proposed the environmental pollution prevention strategies for the actual development of the livestock. This paper has good theoretical and practical value. The main contents of this paper include:research background, purpose and meaning, dynamic and commentary, concepts definition theoretical basis(Chapter1, Chapter2), Chinese livestock development and environmental pollution temporal characteristics (Chapter3), Analyze the relationship between livestock environmental pollution and economic growth in China (Chapter4). Analyze the farm’s livestock wishes of environmental pollution prevention:A Case of Wuhan (Chapter5), A Case Study of Livestock Industry Environmental Pollution(Chapter6) and The prevention and control strategies of our livestock pollution (Chapter7).The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Environmental pollution problem has appeared with the rapid development of Chinese livestock. Based on the environmental carrying capacity and life-cycle theory empirical analysis showed that our country’s livestock pollution situation is grim, the environment carrying capacity of water and soil are excessive caused by the emissions of nitrogen and phosphorus from livestock, and the total GHG emission from livestock is rising, has become the new environmental problems. Compared with the beginning of Reform and Opening-up, the production capacity of Chinese livestock increased significantly, the per capita consumption of livestock products increased substantially, the product structure of livestock optimized gradually, the production layout regionalization formed gradually, the level of standardization and scale increased substantially, the construction of livestock breeding had significant results, have established a sound livestock technology promotion system. Further integration between the upstream and downstream industry chain in livestock appeared, emerged series of large-scale livestock breeding group such as WENS, COFCO MEAT, New Hope Group, LUONIUSHAN, TRUE IN GROUP and on, which accelerate the modernization process of our country’s livestock. Based on the environmental carrying capacity and life-cycle theory empirical analysis showed that the water and soil environment pollution pressures showed a two-stage-characteristic, namely "increased year by year-decreased steadily" from1990to2011, consider the use of fertilizers and crop nutrient requirement and other factors, in the temporal characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution of livestock;. In the spatial characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution of livestock, the overload of water environment has been the primary environmental constraints, while the overload of soil environment follows that, which are hindering the livestock development in Chinese various regions in the spatial characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution of livestock, In2011, the nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from livestock are showing environmental carrying excessive in all mainland provinces except Tibet. Compare different economic divisions showed that the soil environment carrying pressure index was descending so for the central, eastern, western and northeastern regions and the water environment carrying pressure index descending so for the eastern, central, northeastern and western regions. Compare different livestock divisions showed that the soil environment carrying pressure index was descending so for agricultural areas, pastoral and farming-pastoral areas, and the water environment carrying pressure index descending so for farming-pastoral areas, agricultural areas and pastoral areas. In the temporal characteristics of livestock GHG emissions, the emissions of CO2equivalent of livestock by life-cycle assessment and various aspects are showing an upward trend over the past22years, particularly the growth of rearing phase, planting feed grain, processing and transporting feed grain, slaughtering and processing animal products are even more significant, but the emissions of CO2equivalent from processing and transporting feed grain and slaughtering and processing animal products accounted for the total emissions from Chinese livestock are less than1%and0.05%. The emissions of CO2equivalent from gastrointestinal fermentation and manure management system, show a downward trend. The emissions from ruminant livestock account for55.25%, while non-ruminant livestock account for44.75%over the past22years. In the spatial characteristics of livestock GHG emissions, in2011both the emissions and emissions-intensity of CO2equivalent from Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and Yunnan’s livestock are among the nation’s top10. Comparing between different economic divisions shows that the emissions of livestock in the western region account for the largest share, and the emissions-intensity of Western and Northeastern are significantly higher than the Eastern and Central in China. Comparing between different livestock divisions shows that the emissions of CO2equivalent from agricultural areas’ livestock accounted for63.88%of China, however the emission-intensity of pastoral areas is the highest, while the emission-intensity of agriculture areas is the lowest. (2) Using the EKC theory to verify the relationship between livestock environmental pollution and economic growth found that the water and soil pollution with the per capita GDP meet the inverted "U"-shaped curve relationship, and has crossed the curve "turning point" showing positive trends, while livestock GHG emission intensity linearly decreasing trend, which does not meet the inverted "U"-shaped curve relationship with the per capita GDP. This paper systematically describes the theoretical relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth, Using three indicators:soil nitrogen overload capacity, the water environment carrying pressure index and livestock GHG intensity in1990-2011years, which reflect the degree of environmental pollution livestock to verify the EKC curve with the per capita GDP, under the premise of stationary sequence. Studies have shown that the water and soil pollution with the per capita GDP meet the inverted "U"-shaped curve relationship, and has crossed the curve "turning point" showing positive trends, while livestock GHG emission intensity linearly decreasing trend, which does not meet the inverted "U"-shaped curve relationship with the per capita GDP. Overall, livestock environmental pollution has emerged easing trend with the economic growth in our country.(3) Analyze the factors which influence Farms’s wishes to carry out Pollution Prevention using binary Logistic regression models, studies have shown that the farming scale, land scale, economic costs of pollution prevention and the regulatory pressure from the environmental protection department have a significant positive effect to the probability of large-scale farms for environmental pollution prevention. The livestock development of Wuhan City is a microcosm of our country’s livestock to some extent, this paper selected Wuhan City a sample area has some representation. After2000, the Wuhan municipal government has issued a series of livestock pollution prevention policy, for the environmental pollution problems caused by the development of livestock. Carding the policies about livestock development and environmental pollution prevention in Wuhan, and selecting103large-scale pig farms as a sample whose slaughter are more than500heads, analyzing the factors which influence Farms’s wishes to carry out Pollution Prevention using binary Logistic regression models, studies have shown that the farming scale, land scale, economic costs of pollution prevention and the regulatory pressure from the environmental protection department have a significant positive effect to the probability of large-scale farms for environmental pollution prevention. While the farms policymakers’age, education, breeding age, economic situation in recent years, financing channels, the cognition degree of pollution on livestock, claiming that livestock will aggravate global warming or not, the relations with neighboring villagers, village or government because of environmental issues does not have a significant impact.(4) Using case analysis, select Wuhan Yinhe Pig Farm for the study showed that Wuhan Yinhe Pig Farm has solved the problem of environmental pollution and achieved a good ecological and economic benefits through constructing the large-scale biogas, transfering and developing the land, strictly regulate the management of pig rearing, manure utilization, using the manure as resources, integrated operating the agriculture and animal husbandry. Through these measures,Yinhe Pig Farms has solved the problem of environmental pollution and builded planting combined circulation of agricultural systems. Compared with pure pig farming, this circulation system of agricultural are dominant in resource reduction, environmental bearing pressures, system productivity and economic efficiency.(5) Proposed strategies for our country’s livestock environmental pollution prevention. Combing those earlier findings, combing and reviewing existing policies in livestock pollution prevention, learning from the prevention experience of American and European countries, fully considering the livestock’s status in our national economy and the industry characteristics, balancing the livestock development and environmental pollution control, proposing the environmental pollution prevention strategies for the actual livestock development, such as strengthening the construction of livestock pollution control system, intensifying policy support, improving the incentive mechanism, improving pollution prevention technical standards and specifications, strengthening the research, demonstration and promotion of technology in livestock pollution control, promoting pollution prevention education, exploring the establishment of technical systems and policy mechanisms in livestock GHG emissions.In this paper, there may be three innovations. First,the research topic is innovative. In this paper, the nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from livestock and livestock GHG emissions have been included in the environmental pollution research system, while existing researches has focused in the field of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution from livestock, so this research topics have some innovation. Second, the research methods are innovative. On the one hand, existing researches on nitrogen and phosphorus pollution from livestock are more focused on the risk of contamination of the soil or water in a single field, this paper considering the use of fertilizers, crop absorption, pastoral manure burning and other factors, scientific measured the degree of contamination from livestock and the temporal and spatial characteristics of soil, water environment, based on environmental carrying theory, reflecting innovative. On the other hand, the existing researches on livestock GHG emissions mostly concentrated in the breeding of livestock and manure management system, which are direct emissions. Comprehensive consideration of livestock’s direct production and upstream and downstream industry chain, this paper considers six major link of livestock:gastrointestinal fermentation, manure management system, energy consumption in rearing phase, planting feed grain, processing and transporting feed grain, slaughtering and processing animal products, to estimate the emissions of Chinese livestock’s GHG during1990to2011by life-circle assessment, in every part of China using panel data, reflecting innovative. Third, the conclusions is innovative. This paper considered the pollution from nitrogen, phosphorus and GHG emissions of livestock, seized the long-term relationship between livestock environmental pollution and economic growth, analyzed the factors which affecting the livestock and poultry farms to carry out the wishes of environmental pollution prevention, and selected the typical case which carried out environmental pollution prevention, analyzed its measures and benefits. Then, this paper combing and commentary the existing central and local prevention policies in livestock pollution, learned from the prevention experience of American and European countries, proposed the environmental pollution prevention strategies for the actual development of the livestock, conclusions have some innovative.更多还原