【作者】 钱韵旭；

【导师】 毕开顺；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳药科大学 ， 药事管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 伴随着一系列严苛的国际农残限量标准出台,我国出口中药产品农残量超标事件频发,不单造成巨大的经济损失,还严重影响了我国的外贸声誉。本文试图分析新的国际农残限量标准对中药出口的影响,并提出相应对策。本文采用文献研究、归纳推理、演绎推理、回归分析、问卷调查及比较类推等方法,完成了以下研究内容：利用“绿色贸易壁垒”理论和历年中药产品对日韩出口数据,理论解析和实证分析了日本“肯定列表制度”及韩国二氧化硫2008-3号限量标准对中药产品出口的影响；以12年间我国对欧盟13国出口中成药的面板数据建立回归模型,定量分析欧盟统一农药残留检测标准对中成药出口欧盟的影响;以“博弈论”为基础,建立了中药生产者与消费者、生产者之间、生产者与监管者等各中药利益体间的博弈模型,并求解博弈平衡；利用云南省文山州调研所得的相关数据,进行二元Logistic回归计算,分析药农绿色农药使用意愿的影响因素；进一步利用调研数据,建立Multinomial Logit回归模型来分析药农农药使用量变化的影响因素。依据所做研究的结果,本文提出如下政策建议：在药典中增加农残检测品种和检查项目、调整检查限量以制定出适合中国实际情况的合理的农残标准；通过在欧洲重要港口设立服务机构、提升出口平均价格、制定针对进口国特点的出口策略等方法来促进中成药对欧盟的出口；可采用强化对消费者的信息供给、发挥龙头企业的正向示范作用及在生产者生产低农残中药产品时,增加其收益、减少其损失等方法,来促进低农残中药产品的生产；探索符合我国国情的中药材种植保险体系、促进集约型规范化药材种植、降低绿色农药终端售价、促使药农掌握全面的农药信息、稳定中药材价格,以期提升药农使用绿色农药的意愿；通过促进土地合理流转、发挥药材经销商的积极作用、制定合理使用农药的SOP细则、提高农药技术培训效果、有效管理农药生产和销售系统以及在药材产区加大基础投入等各项举措,来减少药农的农药使用量。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with a band of foreign severe maximum levels for pesticide residues, the crises caused by pesticide residues exceeding maximum limits in Chinese traditional medicines’export happen frequently. It not only results in financial losses, but also worsens the reputation of China’s trade. This study aims to analyze influences of maximum levels for pesticide residues on CTM export and find out reasonable solutions.By applying different methods, such as, literature research, inductive inference, regression analysis, questionnaire survey, and analogical method, this research has been achieved these follow aims. First, depending on the theory of Green Trade Barriers and the trade data between China and Japan, China and Korea, this study analyzes the influences of Japanese positive list system and Korean maximum levels for carbon dioxide residue on CTM export empirically and theoretically. Second, in order to analyze the main influence of the unified standards of pesticide residue analysis on the exportation of Chinese traditional patent medicines to EU, we use the panel data of the exportation of Chinese traditional patent medicines to13countries in EU over the period from2000to2011to build a regression model. Third, depending on Game Theory, we build game models between producers and costumers, producers and producers, producers and supervisors. Fourth, a binary Logistic model is applied to analyze major factors which influence Chinese medicinal herb growers’ willingness to use green pesticides by using survey data collected in Wenshan, Yunnan province. Final, a Multinomial Logistic model is built by using survey data collected in the same way to analyze major factors which influence pesticide uses of Chinese medicinal herb growers.According to the analysis above, some proposals are put forward. For example, more inspection contents and items should be added, and maximum levels for pesticide residues should be adjusted in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia to develop reasonable maximum levels for pesticide residues suitable for China’s basic conditions. In order to advance the exportation of Chinese traditional patent medicines to EU, some measures could be taken, for instance, setting up service departments at important EU ports, increasing average export price, and forming individualized policies for different import countries. Moreover, the manufacture of low-pesticide-residue CTM could be advanced by providing customers with more information, initiating positive effects of leading enterprises, and boosting the expected revenue and lowering the expected loss of producing low-pesticide-residue CTM. For the sake of enhancing Chinese medicinal herb growers’willingness to use green pesticides, we should build insurance system for Chinese medical herb planting, move toward the intensive planting systems, fetch down the pieces of green pesticides, emphasize and propagate the advantages of green pesticides, and keep Chinese medicinal materials staying at steady prices. Finally, some advices for controlling pesticide use, for instance, generalizing new organization patterns, advancing land transferring, encouraging distributors to play positive roles, focusing on SOP about using pesticides reasonably when formulating GAP, increasing efficiencies of trainings in pesticide technology, strengthening managements of manufacture and sale systems and increasing investments in herb-cultivating areas, are offered.更多还原