【作者】 晏强；

【导师】 李建华；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 长期以来，我国公共产品提供在城乡间存在着严重的不均衡状况，直接影响着粮食增产、农民增收和农业增效。如何提高我国农村基础设施投资能力和建设水平，已成为党和国家关注的重要问题之一，并在近几年的中央“一号文件”中连续提及。同时，农村基础设施投资在投资主体、运行机制、管理水平等各个方面均与城市基础设施投资存在很大差异，如何提升农村基础设施的投资效果也是党和国家关心的重要问题之一。因此，对我国农村基础设施投资的效果问题进行系统化研究，对于政府部门的科学决策有着十分重大的意义。我国是一个农业大国，要研究农村基础设施投资问题，首先应研究13个粮食主产区的问题。我国13个粮食主产区的总人口约占全国总人口的60%，耕地面积和粮食播种面积均占我国的60%以上，粮食产量占我国的70%，农业总产值占我国的60%以上，多年以来提供了我国80%以上的商品粮，为我国的社会经济发展和保障国家的粮食安全作出了重大贡献。长期以来，各主产区的农村基础设施建设总体上表现出投资总量不足、投资效果欠佳等一系列问题，在很大程度上制约着粮食增产、农民增收和农业增效，也直接影响着我国的粮食安全问题。鉴于此，本文以我国13个粮食主产区为研究对象，重点研究其农村基础设施投资效果问题，拟对政府部门的决策提供科学参考。论文的主要研究工作可概括如下：1.农村基础设施投资效果产生机理研究。主要研究内容和结论如下：（1）界定了农村基础设施投资效果，构建了农村基础设施系统的总体框架并分析了其主要构成要素在整个系统中的作用。（2）研究了农村基础设施投资主体的行为实现机理，分析了投资主体的投资行为控制过程、控制模式以及投入资金的使用模式等。（3）从农村基础设施投资的传导机制和投资流向机制视角研究了农村基础设施投资的整体运行机制。结果表明，农村基础设施投资系统会根据投资规模和投资结构来决策投资的具体流向进而优化投资资源的配置。（4）从促进农村经济增长、增加农村居民收入、提升投资系统本身效率、对粮食安全的作用以及对其他社会层面的作用实现的角度研究了农村基础设施投资的绩效价值实现机理。结果表明，农村基础设施投资可以通过改善农村生产生活条件和环境来实现促进农村经济社会发展的功能。2.粮食主产区农村基础设施投资对农民收入的影响研究。主要研究内容和结论如下：（1）1978年以来，受农产品价格、国家政策等多种因素的影响，粮食主产区农民收入主要经历了快速增长阶段、平稳增长阶段、停滞徘徊阶段、恢复性增长阶段、滞涨阶段和快速增长阶段。（2）1992年以来粮食主产区农民收入变化呈现出以下特征：收入总体上增长较快，内部差距逐步拉大；农民收入结构变化较大，转移性收入增长明显；主产区与非主产区农民收入差距逐步拉大，种粮效益偏低；主产区和非主产区农民收入结构差异明显，影响因素复杂。（3）粮食主产区农民收入增长的源泉包括农业经济增长、农村基础设施投资、农村劳动力转移、人均耕地面积以及人均受教育年限。（4）以粮食主产区农民年均纯收入为因变量，以第一产业GDP（亿元）、农村基础设施投资（万元）、非农就业率（%）、人均耕地面积（公顷）和人均受教育年限（年）为自变量，构建了基于C-D生产函数的计量经济模型。（5）对原始序列进行了单位根检验、协整检验，结果表明，原始序列的对数值均通过了单位根检验且均为一阶单整I（1）序列，在1%的显著性水平下各变量之间存在且仅存在一个协整关系。（6）测度了各因素对粮食主产区农民年均纯收入的贡献率。结果表明，第一产业GDP对13个粮食主产区农民年均纯收入的贡献率均值为22.26%，农村基础设施投资的贡献率均值为12.85%，非农就业的贡献率均值为25.79%，人均耕地面积（耕地产出增长）的贡献率均值为31.85%，人均受教育年限的贡献率均值为7.26%。（7）误差修正机制在粮食主产区农民收入调整中确实发挥了效用，但跨期调整幅度不大，农民人均年收入在受到短期干扰后，调整到均衡状态的速度较慢。所设定的自变量均为因变量农民年均纯收入（元）的格兰杰原因。3.粮食主产区农村基础设施投资对农业经济增长的影响研究。主要研究内容和结论如下：（1）1978年以来粮食主产区农村经济增长经历了恢复性增长阶段、平稳发展阶段、滞涨阶段和快速发展阶段。（2）1992年以来粮食主产区农村经济增长呈现出以下特征：农村经济总体增长较快，并且已由之前的资源投入驱动型逐步向科学技术推动型转变；农村经济结构呈现多元化，农村二、三产业取得快速发展。（3）农村经济增长的源泉主要包括乡村从业人员、农村基础设施投资、人均耕地面积、农业科研投入、人均受教育年限以及农村居民消费水平。（4）以粮食主产区农村第一产业GDP（亿元）为因变量，以乡村从业人员（人）、农村基础设施投资（万元）、人均耕地面积（公顷）、农业科研投入（万元）、人均受教育年限（年）和农村居民消费水平（元）为自变量，构建了基于C-D生产函数的计量经济模型。（5）对原始序列进行了单位根检验、协整检验，结果表明，原始序列的对数值均通过了单位根检验且均为一阶单整I（1）序列，在1%的显著性水平下各变量之间存在且仅存在一个协整关系。（6）测度了各因素地粮食主产区农村经济增长的贡献率。结果表明，乡村从业人员数对13个粮食主产区农村经济增长的贡献率均值为21.38%，农村基础设施投资的贡献率均值为14.51%，人均耕地面积（耕地产出增长）的贡献率均值为16.32%，农业科研投入的贡献率均值为14.43%，人均受教育年限的贡献率均值为9.04%，农村居民消费水平的贡献率均值为24.32%。（7）误差修正机制在粮食主产区农村经济增长调整中发挥了效用，但跨期调整幅度不大，农村经济增长在受到短期干扰后，调整到均衡状态的速度较慢。所设定的自变量均为因变量农村第一产业GDP的格兰杰原因。4.粮食主产区农村基础设施投资效率评价与分析。主要研究内容和结论可总结如下：（1）对前沿效率评价的参数方法和非参数方法进行了对比和选择，认为非参数方法尤其是数据包络分析方法（DEA）可有效测度粮食主产区农村基础设施投资系统效率且具有优越性。（2）构建了农村基础设施投资效率评价体系。认为该系统的投入产出效率也是衡量粮食主产区农村基础设施投资效果的一个重要方面。将投入指标抽象为农村基础设施投资（万元），产出指标设定为第一产业GDP（万元）和农民年均纯收入（元/人）。运用前文分离出的农村基础设施投资对第一产业GDP和农民年均纯收入的贡献率计算得到农村基础设施投资这两方面的实际产出效果。（3）运用VRS模型测度了1992-2009年期间粮食主产区农村基础设施投资系统的组合技术效率、纯技术效率和规模技术效率，并以1992年为例对粮食主产区投资系统中投入产出指标的投影结果进行了分析。结果表明，1992-2009年间我国13个粮食主产区农村基础设施投资的组合技术效率水平总体上偏低，分布不均匀，总体上呈上升趋势；纯技术效率水平较高且分布不均，但总体上呈现出下降趋势；规模效率水平总体上偏低且分布不均，但总体上呈现出上升趋势。13个主产区均处于规模收益递增状态，说明我国粮食主产区农村基础设施投资总体规模偏小，需进一步加大投资额度。（4）运用Malmquist指数模型测算了1992-2009年间我国13个粮食主产区农村基础设施投资的生产率变动情况并分析生产率变动的差异及其成因。结果表明，1992-2009年间我国13个粮食主产区农村基础设施投资系统的全要素生产率呈现出小幅的负向增长，仅仅在规模效率上取得了小幅的进步，在纯技术效率和整体技术水平上均表现出一定的下降趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s public products provision between urban and rural areas showed seriousimbalance and directly affected the grain yield increase， farmer’s income increase andagriculture benefit for a long time.so，how to improve China’s rural infrastructure investmentand construction level has being important issues for our country，which has been referedrepeatedly in No.1document from the national central government in the past few years.Besides， there was serious difference existed in investment main body， operationmechanism，and management level，etc. between country and city，so how to improve theinvestment effect of rural infrastructure has been one of important issues concerned by thenational government. So the author thinks that it is very import for government to researchthe issures of investment effect of rural infrastructure.China is a large agricultural country，if we want to study the problem of investment inrural infrastructure， the problem of the13major grain-producing areas should be firstlystudied. The total population of the13major grain-producing areas of the country accountsfor about60%of China， and arable land&sown area of grain more than60%， foodproduction70%， total agricultural output more than60%，commercial grain more than80%.For a long time， the main producing areas of rural infrastructure in general showed the totallack of investment， poor investment effect，etc.，which not only largely restricted grainproduction and farmers’ income and agricultural efficiency， but also directly affect China’sfood safety problems. In view of this，this dissertation took the research object to China’s13major grain-producing areas， and focused on rural infrastructure investment effect，intended to provide scientific reference for the decisions of the government departments.The main research work can be summarized as follows：1.Studied on rural infrastructure investment effect mechanism. The main contents andconclusions are as follows：（1）The author defined the effect of investment in ruralinfrastructure， builded the overall framework of the system of rural infrastructure andanalyzed the role of the main elements of the entire system.（2）Studied the behavior of themain body of investment in rural infrastructure implementation mechanism of investmentbehavior， analyzed the main body of investment control process， control mode， andusage patterns of the funds invested.（3）Studied the overall operating mechanism ofinvestment in rural infrastructure.The results showed that the configuration of ruralinfrastructure investment would be in accordance with the scale of investment and the investment structure to the flow of investment decision-making to optimize investmentresources.（4）Studied the performance value realization mechanism of investment in ruralinfrastructure. The result showed that the infrastructure investment in rural areas canpromote rural economic and social development function by improving rural production andliving conditions.2.Studied on the affecting of rural infrastructure investment for farmers’ income inmajor grain producing areas. The main contents and conclusions are as follows：（1）Thefarmer ’ s income experienced rapid growth phase， steady growth phase， stagnationhovering phase， recovery growth phase， stagflation phase， and rapid growth phase from1978affected by the prices of agricultural products， national policies and other factors.（2）Since1992， the income of the farmers in major grain producing areas showed the followingcharacteristics：Firstly， overall revenue growing faster， but the internal gap graduallywidened. Secondly，farmers’ income structure change and transfer income grown rapidly;Thirdly， the farmers’ income gap gradually widened between main producing areas andother areas， and the effectiveness of grain growing was very low. Fourthly， structure offarmers’ income differences was significant because of complex factors.（3）The sources offarmers income growth in major grain producing areas included agricultural economicgrowth， investment in rural infrastructure， transfer of rural labor， per capita arable landarea， and the average years of schooling.（4）Taking average annual net income of farmersin major grain producing areas as dependent variable，and agricultural GDP，investment inrural infrastructure， non-farm employment rate， per capita arable land area，and averageyears of schooling as independent variables， constructed an econometric model based onthe Cobb-Douglas production function.（5）Carried on unit root tests and cointegration testsfor the original sequence， the results showed that the values of original sequence throughthe unit root test and integrated of order one I （1） sequence， there is only onecointegrating relationship among the variables at the1%level of significance.（6）Theauthor measured the rate of the contribution of various factors on the average annual netincome of farmers in major grain producing areas. The results showed that the primaryindustry GDP contribution22.26%of the average annual net income of13major grainproducing areas， and rural infrastructure investment contribution rate was12.85%， thecontribution of non-agricultural employment rate was25.79%， per capita arable land（arable output growth） contribution rate was31.85%， years of education per capitacontribution rate was7.26%.（7）Error correction mechanisms played important role infarmers’ income of major grain producing areas， but the magnitude of the intertemporal adjustment was not big enough. After short-term interference， the per capita annual incomeof farmers adjusted to the equilibrium state slowly. All the independent variables wereGranger reason of farmers’ annual net income.3.Studied on the affecting of rural infrastructure investment for agricultural economicgrowth in major grain producing areas. The main contents and conclusions are as follows：（1）The rural economic growth experienced recovery growth phase，steady growth phase，Stagflation phase，and rapid growth phase from1978.（2）Since1992， the rural economicgrowth in major grain producing areas showed the following characteristics：The ruraleconomy growed fastly， and changed gradually form resources driven to science andtechnology-driven. The structure of the rural economy has diversified to achieve rapiddevelopment of rural secondary and tertiary industries.（3）The sources of rural economicgrowth in major grain producing areas included rural practitioners， investment ininfrastructure in rural areas， per capita arable land， investment in agricultural research，the average years of schooling， and rural residents’ consumption level.（4）Takingagricultural GDP in major grain producing areas as dependent variable， and ruralemployment， rural infrastructure investment， per capita arable land area of agriculturalresearch investment， the average years of schooling， and rural residents’ consumptionlevels as independent variables， constructed an econometric model based on theCobb-Douglas production function.（5）Carried on unit root tests and cointegration tests forthe original sequence， the results showed that the values of original sequence through theunit root test and integrated of order one I （1） sequence， there is only one cointegratingrelationship among the variables at the1%level of significance.The author measured the rateof the contribution of various factors on rural economic growth in major grain producingareas. The results showed that the number of rural laborers contribution21.38%of uraleconomic growth in13major grain producing areas， and rural infrastructure investmentcontribution rate was14.51%，the contribution of per capita arable land area was16.32%，investment in agricultural research contribution rate was14.43%，years of education percapita contribution rate was9.04%，and consumption level of rural residents contributionrate was24.32%.（7）Error correction mechanisms played important role in rural economicgrowth of major grain producing areas， but the magnitude of the intertemporal adjustmentwas not big enough. After short-term interference， the rural economic growth adjusted tothe equilibrium state slowly. All the independent variables were Granger reason ofagricultural GDP.4.Evaluation and analysis of rural infrastructure investment efficiency in the major grain producing areas. The main contents and conclusions can be summarized as follows：（1）The author compared parameter method and non-parametric methods for frontierefficiency evaluation， and suggested that non-parametric methods， especially dataenvelopment analysis （DEA） can effectively measure rural infrastructure investmentefficiency in major grain producing areas superiority.（2）The author builded efficiencyevaluation system of rural infrastructure investment，and believed that the input and outputefficiency was an important aspect for rural infrastructure investment effect. So， the authorset input index as rural infrastructure investment， and output index included agriculturalGDP and average annual net income of farmers.（3）The author measured technicalefficiency， pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of rural infrastructure investmentsystem in the period1992-2009of major grain producing areas， and analyzed projection ofthe input and output indicators by taking1992for example.The results show that thecombination technical efficiency level of rural infrastructure investment in China’s13majorgrain-producing areas were generally low form1992to2009， having uneven distributionfeatures，and the overall upward trend. The levels of pure technical efficiency were higherbut having uneven distribution features also， and having the overall downward trend. Thelevels of scale efficiency were lower and having uneven distribution features too， andhaving the overall downward trend. All the13main producing areas lied in increasingreturns to scale，which showed that the rural infrastructure investment of China’s major grainproducing areas was not enough， we need to further increase the amount of investment（.4）The author analyzed the productivity changes of rural infrastructure investment in China’s13major grain-producing areas from1992to2009by using Malmquist Index model. Theresults showed that total factor productivity of rural infrastructure investment system inChina’s13major grain-producing areas from1992to2009showed a slight negative growth，pure technical efficiency and the overall technical level showed a downward trend as scaleefficiency made slight progress.更多还原