【作者】 金新；

【导师】 黄凤志；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 国际关系， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 进入21世纪第二个十年以来，东亚地区海洋安全形势持续动荡不安，海上摩擦、冲突与对抗频发。东亚海上争端的激烈化程度在当今全球范围内亦属罕见。在日渐趋紧的海洋安全环境下，中国海洋安全利益面临着严峻挑战。东亚海洋安全领域在深层次上究竟发生了什么？为什么会出现当前这种不稳定态势？如何应对这种环境变化带来的挑战？就国际问题研究而言，对这些问题的解答是深具学术意义和政策价值的。本文选择“安全秩序”这一研究视角切入，以系统理论方法考察当前东亚海洋安全秩序的新演化。此项研究着力解析海洋安全秩序这一复杂系统内在的规律性因素，厘清东亚海洋安全秩序的现时变化及其基本动因，并探讨中国的因应之策。第一章通过海洋安全秩序系统模型的构建与演化机理的解析，为东亚海洋安全秩序演化的研究提供一套基本的理论框架和研究思路。海洋安全秩序是由多种秩序要素相互关联、相互影响而构成有机系统，包含主体要素、客体要素、结构性要素和价值要素四种构成要素。秩序的系统结构形态可从两个层面加以考察：一是秩序模式，二是秩序状态。在秩序模式层面，海洋安全秩序可分为霸权安全秩序、均势安全秩序、集体安全秩序、安全共同体秩序和等级秩序等五种类型。在秩序状态层面，海洋安全秩序可界定为高、中、低不同程度的有序与失衡。海洋安全秩序的演化，本质上是其系统结构形态的变化，包含秩序模式转型与秩序状态转化两个维度的意涵。具体的秩序演化进程，根据演化方向的不同，可分为秩序进化与秩序退化；根据演化速度的不同，可分为秩序渐变与秩序突变。海洋安全秩序演化的动因在于系统环境或要素的变化。海洋安全秩序的演化，主要是通过秩序自组织进程中的反馈机制实现的。第二章考察东亚海洋安全秩序的历史演进与现实形态。东亚海洋安全秩序，生成于东亚区域体系之中，随着东亚历史的演进而不断发展变化。该秩序在历史上经历了三次系统重构：一是16世纪初至20世纪初，从中国主导的等级秩序向列强主导的均势秩序的转型；二是20世纪30至40年代，从多极均势秩序模式向美苏争霸之下的两极均势秩序模式的转型；三是20世纪80年代末90年代初，从两极均势秩序向美国主导的单极霸权秩序的转型。21世纪初的东亚海洋安全秩序，从秩序模式上看，仍属美国单极主导的霸权安全秩序。但当前的秩序是一种包含着均势因素的不彻底的霸权秩序。从秩序状态上看，东亚海洋安全秩序处于低度有序层次。此外，东亚海洋安全秩序在系统向度还存在显著的缺陷：制度化程度较低。组织化程度高、行为规制力强的海洋安全制度仍然处于并将长期处于匮乏状态。这对海洋安全秩序的和谐与有序具有不可忽视的负面效应。第三章审视和评估21世纪第二个十年东亚海洋安全秩序新演化的总体态势。本章的研究从秩序新演化的表现、趋势和影响三个层面展开。2010年以来，东亚海洋安全领域摩擦、冲突与对抗频发，整体安全形势动荡不稳。通过梳理2010年以来的海洋安全形势发展轨迹，可发现这种形势变化现象背后的本质因素——东亚海洋安全秩序在现阶段的新演化。当前秩序的新演化，在秩序状态层面是以失衡趋势为特征的秩序退化；在秩序模式层面是以海洋霸权体系嬗变为特征的秩序渐变。在可预见的未来，东亚海洋安全秩序仍将保持在相对失衡的状态，有序程度很难得到根本性地提高。东亚海洋安全秩序新演化的主要影响可从系统与单元两个层次加以考察。在系统层次上，它导致东亚海洋安全治理困境的强化；在单元层次上，它造成中国海洋安全战略面临新的困局。第四章探析东亚海洋安全秩序新演化的动因。当前东亚海洋安全秩序的新演化，与其外部环境和内部要素的变化具有直接的因果关联。对秩序演化影响较大的环境因素，主要是系统边界之外与海洋安全秩序具有较高关联度的国际秩序范畴、海洋政治范畴和国际安全范畴等方面的现实状况。就当前东亚海洋安全秩序而言，这三大范畴的现实变化主要表现为近年来东亚区域秩序的转型、国际海洋秩序的演进和地缘安全环境的嬗变。“东亚”、“海洋”与“安全”三个维度上系统环境的变化，构成了当前东亚海洋安全秩序新演化的外部动因。系统环境的变化不仅会直接推动秩序的演化，还会推动秩序构成要素的变化，进而间接导致秩序的演化。秩序系统外部这三方面的环境变化分别导致系统内部东亚海权格局的变动、海洋利益矛盾的深化和国家海洋安全战略的调整等要素变化。这些秩序要素的变化，构成了秩序新演化的内部动因。第五章探讨东亚海洋安全秩序新演化背景下中国的战略应对。东亚海洋安全秩序的新演化，塑造着中国新的海洋安全战略环境。为在秩序新演化进程中维护本国东亚海洋安全利益，中国须采取与新形势适应的区域海洋安全战略。本章在系统考察中国东亚海洋安全利益及其所面临现实威胁的基础上，探讨有效可行的中国的东亚海洋安全战略选择。中国的东亚海洋安全利益，可借鉴马斯洛需求层次理论从基本需求到高级需求的模式逐级排列，实现核心利益、重要利益和次要利益的排序和分层。以利益需求的层次区分为基础，可分别考察各层次利益在秩序新演化进程中面临的客观威胁。通过对海洋安全利益所面临威胁与挑战的研判和评估，可探讨实现利益有效护持的应对之策。秩序新演化背景下中国东亚海洋安全战略，应厘定近期和中长期的战略目标，坚持“有限海权”战略原则和“积极防御”战略方针，综合运用多种战略手段与政策路径，推动东亚海洋安全秩序的优化，切实维护本国海洋安全利益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Maritime security situation in East Asia has been continued unrest since we enteredthe second decade of the21st century. Naval friction, conflict and confrontation arefrequent in East Asia. The intense degree of East Asian maritime disputes are rare in thecurrent world. As the maritime security environment has become to tighten, China’smaritime security interests are facing severe challenges. What happened on deepmaritime safety field in East Asia? Why it presents current unstable situation? How tocope with the challenge? For international studies, the answers to these questions havedeep academic meaning and policy value. This paper chooses the angle of “securityorder”, uses the systems theory approach to study the new evolution of current maritimesecurity order in East Asia. The research focus on the analysis of internal regularityfactors in this complex system---maritime security order, to clarify the current changesand its basic reasons of the East Asian maritime security order, and to explore China’scountermeasures.The first chapter defines a set of basic theoretical framework and researchapproach for the study of the evolvement of East Asia maritime security order bybuilding maritime security system model and explorating its evolution mechanism.Maritime security order is an organic system constituted by multiple correlative andinteractive order factors, which are subjective factors, objective factors, structure factorsand value factors. The systematic structure pattern of order can be investigated from twoapproaches: order model and order condition. In respect of order model, maritimesecurity order can be classified as hegemony security order, balanced security order,collective security order, security community order and hierarchical order. In respect oforder condition, the maritime security order can be defined as varying degrees of orderand unbalance, namely high, medium and low degrees. Essentially, the evolution ofmaritime security order is the changing of its systemic structure condition, including thetransformation of order model and order condition. To explain the process of the order evolution specifically, it embodies order evolution and order degeneration according tothe evolvement direction; and abrupt change and gradual change according to theevolvement speed. The maritime security order evolvement roots in the variation ofsystemic environment order factor and carries out via feedback mechanism in itssystematic process.The second chapter studies the historical development and present condition ofEast Asia maritime security order, which rooted from East Asia regional system anddeveloped as the East Asia history marched on. The East Asia maritime orderexperienced reconstructions for three times. The first reconstruction is from early16thcentury to20thcentury, during which period it transformed from the hierarchical orderdominated by China to the balanced order dominated by super powers. The second oneis from1930s to1940s, which presents the general global power balance patterndominated by the U.S. and the SSUR derived from multi-level balance order model. Thethird one is from the late1980s to the early1990s, when the order began to transformform the two-level power balance to the unipolar hegemony order dominated by theU.S. With respect to the order model, in the early21th century, the East Asia maritimesecurity order still pertains to the hegemony security order dominated by the U.S..However, the order now is a halfway hegemony security order as it involves withbalanced power order factor. With respect to order condition, East Asia security order isof low-level. In addition, it has an apparent defect in systematic dimension for its lowinstitutionalization. There will be a long time to go to form a maritime security orderwith high level systematism and powerful regulative ability. The low institutionalizationwill bring grievous side effects to the harmonious maritime security order.The third chapter review and evaluate the overall situation on the new evolution ofEast Asian maritime security order in the second decade of the21st century. Thischapter from three aspects to describe new evolution of the order, these are performance,trend and influence. Friction, conflict and confrontation have been frequent and theoverall security situation has been unrest in East Asian maritime security field since2010. Through teasing the trajectories of the marine security situation since2010, wecan find the nature of the changing situation, that is the new evolution of East Asianmaritime security order. On the new evolution of the order, is order degradation with theunbalanced trend in the order state level; is order gradient with the sea hegemonysystem evolution in the order model level. In the foreseeable future, East Asian maritime security order will remain unbalanced, and the order degree is difficult toimprove fundamentally. We from system and unit two aspects to investigate the maineffects of new evolution of East Asian maritime security order. At the system level, itintensified the governance dilemma of East Asian maritime security; at the unit level, itbrought new predicament of china’s maritime security strategy.The fourth chapter explores the agents of the new evolution of maritime securityorder in East Asia. There are directly causal relations between the current and newevolution and its external environment and internal elements. Environmental factors thataffects the evolution more include realities in international order, maritime politicsand international security that are closely connected with maritime security order butoutside the system. As for the current East Asia’s maritime security order, changes inthe three fields appear mainly transformation of East Asia’s regional order, evolutionof international maritime order, and alterations of the geopolitical security environmentin recent years. Changes of system environment in three dimensions:‘East Asia’,‘maritime’ and ‘security’, constitutes external agents of the current and new evolution ofEast Asia’s maritime security order. The changes of system environment promote notonly the evolution of the order directly, but the modification of the elements of the order,then the evolution of the order indirectly. The three environmental changes out of thesystem of the order lead respectively to modification of the East Asia’s sea powerconfiguration, deepening of the maritime interest unconformity and adjustment of themaritime security strategy. The changes in the elements of the order constitutes theinternal agents of the current and new evolution of the order.The fifth chapter explores China’s strategic response under the background of thenew evolution of East Asia’s maritime security order. The new evolution of East Asia’smaritime security order is forming China’s new strategic environment of maritimesecurity. To guard its interests of maritime security in East Asia, in the new evolution oforder, China should adopt a regional maritime security strategy accommodating to thenew situations. This chapter, based on systematically examination of China’s maritimesecurity interests and their real threats in East Asia, discusses effective and feasibleoptions for China’s maritime security strategy in East Asia. By Maslow’s hierarchy ofneeds theory, China’s maritime security interests in East Asia can be graded coreinterests, important interests and secondary interests, from essential requirements toadvanced requirements. On the basis of levels of interest requirements, objective threats to levels of interests in the new evolution of the order can be examined. We can discusscountermoves that take care of China’s interests by studying and estimating the threatsand challenges to China’s maritime security interests. Under the background of the newevolution, China’s maritime security strategy in East Asia should determine short-termand long-term strategic targets, maintain strategic policies of ‘active defense’ and‘restricted sea power’, apply varieties of strategic means and policy approaches, andpromote the improvement of maritime security order in East Asia, and then eventuallyguard China’s maritime security interests.更多还原