【作者】 李斌；

【导师】 蒋萍；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,国内生产总值飞速增长,人民生活水平不断提高。但由于长期以来,中国经济的增长很大程度上依靠不断投入的资源、能源,“两高一资”项目成为拉动经济增长的重要动力。在这种情况下,中国快速的经济增长带来了较为严重的环境问题,长久下去将严重影响中国的生态安全和能源安全。与此同时,在国际环境中,为摆脱全球经济危机的影响,探寻可持续的经济发展道路,联合国环境规划署于2008年提出了全球“绿色新政”策略,此策略被认为是人类继工业革命、信息革命后的又一大产业革命。美国、欧盟等发达国家纷纷推出各自的绿色经济发展计划,力图在新一轮全球产业升级中垄断绿色产业的核心技术,进而继续掌控其在全球经济政治舞台上的主导权。近年来,随着中国城镇化、工业化、现代化建设的不断深入,中国国民经济与社会发展对能源需求越来越大,对生态环境的影响也日益突出,二氧化碳排放总量已经跃居世界首位。在此背景下,中国政府高度重视经济增长与环境恶化的矛盾问题,并将该问题立足于中国国民经济与社会发展的根本问题。在意识形态方面,中国建立科学发展观,强调发展要以人为本,要统筹人与自然和谐发展,正确处理好经济建设、人口增长与资源利用、生态环境保护之间的关系。在政策方面,中国《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》中明确提出：“坚持把建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会作为加快转变经济发展方式的重要着力点。深入贯彻节约资源和保护环境基本国策,节约能源,降低温室气体排放强度,发展循环经济,推广低碳技术,积极应对全球气候变化,促进经济社会发展与人口资源环境相协调,走可持续发展之路。”中国发展绿色经济势在必行。鉴于绿色经济概念较新,目前国内外对绿色经济的内涵及发展核心的研究仍处于初级阶段,本文力求在绿色经济理论方面进行创新,在通过文献综述及大量的资料研究的前提下,系统分析了绿色经济的内涵。绿色经济的发展离不开绿色产业的发展。本文以碳排放量为标准,认定绿色能源、绿色建筑、绿色交通、绿色工业是绿色经济发展的四大产业部门。本文试图系统、全面的阐述了绿色经济四大支撑产业的内涵,并分析了发展四大支撑产业的必要性。中国绿色经济的发展是本文研究的核心问题,本文采用理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法分别分析了中国绿色经济的发展阶段、中国绿色经济发展的影响因子、中国绿色经济发展的主要任务等内容,基本构建了中国绿色经济发展评价的实证研究体系。本文主要内容有七章,具体章节及主要内容安排如下：第一章引论,主要介绍了中国绿色经济发展的研究背景及研究意义。并对本文研究所使用的基本方法在绿色经济发展研究中的研究进行了文献综述。第二章是主体研究内容之前的理论准备。文章首先介绍了绿色经济发展的内涵、绿色经济与循环经济、低碳经济的相互关系。接着,较为详细的阐述了绿色经济发展的理论两大理论基础—库兹涅茨曲线和脱钩理论。最后,文章分析了绿色经济发展的四大领域,并对绿色能源、绿色建筑、绿色工业、绿色交通的内涵及其在绿色经济发展的重要性做了剖析。第三章简要介绍了中国绿色经济发展的时代背景(“绿色新政”浪潮),通过对部分OECD国家绿色经济发展政策的评价,找出当前全球绿色经济发展的重点内容：减少经济的碳依赖度和发展绿色经济。简要概括了当前国际社会中倡导与支持绿色经济发展的主要国际会议和国际条约,并剖析了绿色新政浪潮下全球绿色经济发展制度框架的创新。第四章侧重分析了中国绿色经济发展的现状,主要分为两个部分。一是通过脱钩理论,简要分析了中国经济发展中对资源、能源、环境的影响关系,对中国绿色经济发展阶段进行了初步评价。研究发现,2000年以来,中国国内生产总值与水资源消耗、能源消耗及二氧化碳排放量呈现相对脱钩的关系,表明中国绿色经济发展已经取得了一定的效果。二是利用IPAT模型,分别分析了中国社会经济发展与碳排放、能源消耗总量发展的特点及影响因子,并利用IPAT模型的变形模式,简要分析了中国1990-2010年间经济发展、人口、技术等各因素对环境、能源的影响因素。研究发现,1990-2010年间,中国经济发展与能源消耗之间尚不存在环境的库兹涅茨曲线,表明中国目前绿色经济发展任务仍很艰巨。第五章是全文的重点,基于上文的理论研究,确认中国“十二五”期间重点发展的绿色能源、绿色交通、绿色建筑和绿色工业这四大产业部门,并结合中国“十二五”国民经济发展规划内容确定了中国“十二五”绿色经济发展评价体系。通过层次分析法及德尔菲法确定了中国“十二五”绿色经济发展评价体系中各指标权重,并对中国2010年现状与“十二五”期末目标值进行了评价分析,最终从控制指标层面确定了中国“十二五”绿色经济发展的主要工作任务。研究发现,在绿色能源、绿色建筑、绿色交通、绿色工业四大绿色产业部门的绿色发展中,绿色工业的综合评价指数得分最高,绿色建筑、绿色交通紧随其后,绿色能源得分与前三大产业相比仍有一定差距。在“十二五”期间,中国绿色经济指标发展的重要任务是生物质能发电总装机容量、城市客源轨道交通里程、新材料产值、ETC平均覆盖率、太阳能光伏发电总容量等。而尽管2010年底,中国新型材料墙体应用已经达到了“十二五”标准,但由于该数值是比例值,新型材料推广仍不应忽视。第六章在上一章节的基础上,进一步分析中国“十二五”期间绿色能源、绿色交通、绿色建筑和绿色工业的发展路径,给出了中国“十二五”绿色经济发展的具体对策。第七章在总结上述章节内容的基础上,进一步阐述了现阶段中国绿色经济发展所面临的挑战,并给出了中国绿色经济长期发展的主要策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since1978, under the reform and opening up policy, China has gained a renowned accomplishment in terms of the economy development. The gross domestic product has increased dramatically, and the living standard of people has improved steadily. However, as much of China’s development depends upon the industry with huge comsumption of energy and natural resources, the development pattern is not sustainable. Such being the case, China’s rapid economic growth has raised many concerns about the ecology security and energy security.Meanwhile, after the experience of a worldwide econmy crisis in2008, the whole world is seeking a sustainable development in order to come over the depression. Under such circumstance, the UNEP has proposed a Great Green New Deal project, which is regarded as a new revolutionary since the industrial revolutionary and information technology revolutionary. Such being the case, some developed countries, such as US and EU, have all proposed their only Green Economy Development Policy, aiming to master the core techniques in green industry and take the lead in the global economy and social stage.Recent years, with the ever deepening urbanrisation, industrialization and modernization, the development of China’s economy and social wealfares demands more energy and natural resources, which has casued a huge damage on the whole eco system and environment. And the emission of Carbon-Oxide from China has increased and become the world’s biggest emmissioner. This has attracted the attention from China’s government. The government took many efforts to coordinate the relation between the economy and environment. In the metal aspect, the government has set up a Scientific Development View, which emphasize the development should be based upon people, adress the importance of the coordination with development of people and nature, and the coordination of economy demolition and the use of resources. In the policy aspect, in the twelfth5year plan of the economy and social development, it is firmly stated thaf" the construction of resourse saving and environment friendly society is an important focal point to accelerate the transformation of economic development. And thoroughly implement the basic national policy of resources and environmental protection, conserve the energy, reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity, develop circular economy, promote low-carbon technologies, and actively respond to global climate change, promote the coordination of economic and social development and population, resources and the environment, and take the road of sustainable development." China’s development of a green economy is imperative.In view of the concept of green economy is relatively new, the meaning and the core theories of the green economy at home and abroad is still in its infancy, this paper seeks breakthrough in green economic. Through literature review and a lot of research, this dissertation systematicly analyzed the development process and some core theories of the green economy. The green economy can not develop without the development of green industries.In the light of the total carbon emissions of traditional industries, this work finds that green energy, green building, green transportationand green industry are four main industry in green economic development. From a microscopic point of view, this paper comprehensive expose the meaning of the four supporting industries in the green economy, and the need for the development of support industries in the four.area respectively.The development of China’s green economy is the core issue of this study, this article uses a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research to analyze the stage of China’s green economy development, the impact factor of China’s green economic development, and identifies the main tasks of green economic development in China.The main content of this paper has seven chapters, specific sections of the main contents are as follows:The first chapter, Introduction, introduces the research background and significance of the green economic development in China. A literature review and research used for methodoligy of research in green economic development is carried out.The second chapter is the theoretical preparation before the main research. The article first introduces the relationship between the connotation of green economic development, the relationship between green economy and circular economy, low carbon economy. Then, a more detailed description of the two theoretical basis of the theory of green economic development is given-the Kuznets curve and the decoupling theory. Finally, the article listed four supporting industry of green economic and analyzes its importance in green economic development analysis.The third chapter briefly describes the background of green economic development in China. This article has a deep review on the "Green New Deal". And through the critical analysis of green economic development policies in some OECD countries, this chapter identifies the key tasks of the global green economic development:to reduce the carbon dependency of the economy and to develop the green economy. A brief summary of the major international conferences and international treaties is given, and this chapter calls for the international community advocacy to support for green economic development and the Green New Deal innovation.Chapter IV The analysis focused on the development status of China’s green economy, mainly divided into two parts. First, based on decoupling theory, a brief analysis of the relationship between China’s economic development and use of resources, energy, and environment is given; a preliminary evaluation of the stage of economic development in China has conducted. The study found that since2000, China’s GDP and water consumption, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions show relative decoupling relationship, which indicates that green economic development in China has progress.Secondly, this chapter invites IPAT model to analyze the relationship between socio-economic development and carbon emissions, and the relationship between socio-economic development and total energy consumption respectively. The characteristics and impact factor are given. By using the deformation modes of the IPAT model, this paper briefly analyze the influencing factors of energy consumption in China between1990and2010.The study found that between1990and2010, China’s economic development and energy consumption does not yet exist environmental Kuznets curve, indicating that China’s current green economic development is still an arduous task.The fifth chapter is the core part of the full text, based on the above theoretical studies, this chapter confirmed the major green industry in "12th Five-Year" period, and built up China’s "Twelfth Five Year " green economy development evaluation system. Through the analytic hierarchy process and the Delphi method, this article further analyzed the status of China’s green economy development with regard to the2015target. The study found that among the four core green industries, the green industry got the highest score and green energy the lowest. The study found in the "12th Five-Year" period, the important task of China’s green economic development is the installation of biomass power generation, the construction of urban tourist transit rail, the development of new materials industry, the ETC average coverage, and the expansion of solar photovoltaic capacity. It is noted that although by the end of2010, China’s applications of new pattern of wall materials has reached the "Twelfth Five Year" standard, the promotion of new materials should still not be ignored as the value is the proportion.Chapter VI is written on the basis of the previous section, which further analysize China’s development path of green energy, green transportation, green building and green industry in the12th Five-Year plan period.Chapter VII is given on the basis of summing up the contents of the above sections, and further elaborated China’s challenges of green economic development, and proposes the long-term development strategy of China’s green economy.更多还原