【作者】 丁林涛；

【导师】 赵进文；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 金融学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 通货膨胀是影响各国经济发展和社会稳定的重大问题,因而一直受到政策制定者和学术界的密切关注。近年来,通货膨胀的大幅波动已经成为影响我国宏观经济健康运行和社会稳定的重要因素。在这种背景下,对通货膨胀的形成机制进行研究,其意义主要体现在两个方面：首先,从理论角度而言,可以进一步完善通货通货膨胀动态特征和形成机制的理论框架。随着经济发展的多元化和全球化,通货膨胀产生的内在原因和波动特征复杂多变,尤其是近些年来的通货膨胀成因的复杂特征表现更为突出。而传统的有关通货膨胀形成机制和动态特征的理论对于解释和分析现阶段的通货膨胀问题存在不足,有待完善和改进；其次,对于政策制定者而言,可以运用有关通货膨胀的形成机制和动态特征的研究成果,深入分析各个阶段通货膨胀的不同成因和动态特征,进而制定科学、合理的货币政策,将会很大程度上提高通货膨胀的治理效果,有助于经济健康、稳定的运行。正是基于这种背景,本文收集和梳理了国内外有关通货膨胀形成机制相关的大量文献,并结合我国的现实情况和统计数据,利用国际上比较前沿的理论和实证研究方法对通货膨胀的形成机制、影响因素以及与货币政策的关系展开研究,并提出了相应的政策建议。本文的主要研究工作如下：一、基于货币主义学派的通货膨胀理论,采用对比研究的方法,并在考虑基础货币结构、货币乘数等货币总量内在结构的基础上,分析了中美货币因素与通货膨胀的长短期机制。货币主义学派认为,通货膨胀是引起物价长期普遍上涨的一种货币现象,因此,研究货币与通货膨胀之间的关系有助于更好地了解通货膨胀的形成机制。但是,通过统计分析中美两国货币因素与通货膨胀之间的关系,发现与货币主义学派的理论主张之间存在悖论,进而展开深入研究。本文首先对中美两国的货币结构、货币乘数进行详尽分析后发现,两国的货币结构以及货币乘数并不是一成不变的,而是一个动态变化的过程,并且存在明显的结构突变点；其次,使用VAR模型和Granger因果关系检验,对中美两国货币因素与通货膨胀之间的短期动态机制进行整体样本和分样本研究,结果表明中美两国通货膨胀具有明显的持续性,但m1、m2对通货膨胀的短期作用机制存在明显的差别；最后,分别使用Johansen协整检验和动态门限协整对中美两国货币因素与通货膨胀之间的长期动态机制以及长期非线性动态机制进行分析,结果表明：中美两国m2对通货膨胀的影响在金融危机之后明显增强,而m1对通货膨胀起到一定程度的抑制作用,并且同样得出两国通货膨胀具有较强持续性的特征。二、通过构建贝叶斯向量自回归(BVAR)模型分析了通货膨胀对宏观经济的冲击响应,并且利用门限模型验证了通货膨胀在不同变量为门限变量情况下的门限效应。本文第二章分别从总需求和总供给、经济结构变化两个方面分析了通货膨胀的成因,因此,基于这种理论分析,并且在考虑我国经济实际运行和数据可得性的基础之上,通过构建流动性过剩、股票价格、产出缺口、国际油价、实际有效汇率和房价的六因素贝叶斯向量自回归(BVAR)模型分析了通货膨胀对宏观经济的冲击响应,并且利用门限模型验证了通货膨胀在不同变量为门限变量情况下的门限效应。通过BVAR模型的脉冲响应分析表明,通货膨胀对流动性过剩具有正向的冲击响应,并且累积反应程度最为强烈,说明货币因素仍然是影响我国通货膨胀的主要因素。通货膨胀对人民币实际有效汇率具有负向的冲击响应,即人民币升值起到抑制通胀的作用,但这种影响比较微弱,股票价格与房价同样作为资产价格因素,但是通货膨胀对两者的冲击响应截然相反,并且反应强烈程度也有明显的差别。通货膨胀对股票价格具有正向冲击响应,而对房价具有负向冲击响应,表明在我国只存在股票价格的财富效应,这主要是由于两种资产的性质不同所决定的。通货膨胀对国际油价具有负向冲击响应,这主要是由于我国能源产业特殊的组织结构以及油价信息传递的滞后所引起的。三、利用非线性平滑转换回归(STR)模型刻画开放经济条件下的通货膨胀形成机制。在世界经济全球化的过程中,外部冲击对我国通货膨胀的影响与日俱增。因此,本文针对贸易开放度及外部冲击对我国通货膨胀的影响进行了实证研究。本文基于平滑转换回归(STR)模型,将人民币汇率和国际油价波动考虑在内,构建了一个贸易开放度与通货膨胀的非线性模型,并且,采用动态非线性Granger因果关系检验法,系统、全面地考察了在不同时期、不同经济阶段下我国贸易开放程度、人民币汇率和国际油价与通货膨胀关系的演变。研究结果表明,贸易开放度与通货膨胀之间呈现出明显的非线性特征,贸易开放程度的高低对通货膨胀的影响具有非对称效应,尤其是在考虑外部冲击因素的影响下,非线性特征更为显著；中国存在由贸易开放度、人民币汇率和国际油价到通货膨胀的非线性Granger因果关系,并且,这种非线性因果关系具有时变性。四、分析通货膨胀形成机制的区域差异,并且对货币政策价格效应的区域差异进行了详细的分析。理论分析和实证研究表明通货膨胀的形成受到多重因素的影响。但是,由于我国各个省区经济发展水平、产业结构和企业所有制结构、金融结构、经济开放程度等方面存在典型的非同质特征,这必然会对通货膨胀的形成产生影响,进而导致各地区通货膨胀水平存在地区差异。因此,这就使得我国通货膨胀总体上表现出高位运行,但同时也存在明显的区域特征。鉴于此,本文重点分析了我国通货膨胀的区域差异,并且对货币政策价格效应的区域差异进行了详细的分析。本文首先采用参数和非参数两种方法对我国通货膨胀的区域差异以及产生的区位因素进行描述分析后发现,各因素的区位差异是一个动态变化的过程,并不是一成不变的；其次,在考虑经济发展水平、金融资源、企业所有制结构和贸易开放度等区位因素的影响下,即将区位因素作为转换变量,研究通货膨胀形成机制的区域差异,实证结果表明当以经济发展水平和金融资源为转换变量时,存在两个转换点,而当以企业所有制结构和贸易开放度为转换变量时,存在一个转换点,但是,均表明我国通货膨胀形成机制存在明显的区域差异；最后,对本章建立的动态非线性面板模型实证结果做进一步深入分析,即研究货币政策价格效应的区域差异,实证结果表明随着转换变量的变化,货币政策的效果也存在明显的区域差异。综上所述,本文借鉴国际上比较前沿的通货膨胀理论和实证研究方法,从通货膨胀形成机制、影响因素以及与货币政策的关系等多个角度对我国的通货膨胀形成机制问题进行了深入的研究。本文的研究对我国通货膨胀的形成机制、影响因素、货币政策效果等问题的研究具有积极的推动作用,对我国政府适时、适度进行宏观经济政策微调和前瞻性预调,具有一定的指导意义。所以,本文的研究具有一定的理论价值和现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Inflation is a major problem which has affected national economic development and social stability, and thus has been the close attention of policy maker and academia. In recent years, the large swings of inflation have become an important factors that affect the healthy running of macro-economic and social stability. In this context, to study the formation mechanism of inflation, its significance is mainly reflected in two aspects:First, from the theoretical point of view, it is possible to further improve the currency inflation dynamic characteristics and the theoretical framework of formation mechanism. With the economic development of diversification and globalization, the intrinsic reasons of causing the inflation and its volatility characteristics are complex and volatile, especially in recent years the complex characteristics of the causes of inflation have become more prominent. While the traditional formation mechanism of inflation and the theory of inflation dynamic characteristics are inadequate for interpretation and analysis of current inflation problem that need to be refined and improved; Second, for policy makers, they can use the research of inflation formation mechanism and dynamic characteristics and analysis the different causes and dynamic characteristics of the various stages of inflation in-depth, leading to formulate scientific and rational monetary policy. This will, to a great extent, improve the governance effect of the inflation, which will contribute to the health and stable of economic running. It is based on this background, this paper collects and combs the extensive literature of inflation formation mechanism of domestic and foreign and combines with the reality of China’s situations and statistics to study the formation of inflation mechanism, influencing factors and its relationship between monetary policy by using the comparative frontier theory and empirical research methods and put forward the relative policy recommendations. The main research works are as follows:Firstly, based on the inflation theory of the monetarist school, this paper analysis the short term and long term mechanism of monetary factors and inflation in China and the United States by using comparative study on basis of considering the internal structure monetary aggregates, such as the base currency, the money multiplier and so on.The monetarist school think that the inflation is a monetary phenomenon which caused the price generally rises in the long term. So, it is contributing to a better understanding of the formation mechanism of inflation by studying the relationship between money and inflation. However, by statistical analysis of the relationship between monetary factors and inflation of China and the United States, this paper finds that there exists paradox with the theoretical claims of the monetary school, and then conduct in-depth research.This paper firstly detailed analysis the currency structure and the money multiplier of China and the United States and finds that their currency structures and the money multipliers are not static and there are significant structure break points. Secondly, this paper analysis the short-term dynamic mechanism of the monetary factors and inflation of China and the United States by using VAR model and Granger causality test of the overall sample and sub-sample studies. The empirical results show that the inflation have obvious persistent of China and the United States, but the short-term effects on inflation mechanism of m1and m2are obviously different. Finally, this paper analysis the long-term dynamic mechanism and nonlinear dynamic mechanism of the monetary factors and inflation of China and the United States by using Johansen and the dynamic threshold cointegration test. The results indicate that the impacts on inflation of m2, both in China and the United States, significantly enhance after the financial crisis, while the ml play a certain degree of inhibition of inflation and also draw the conclusions that the two countries’inflation with strong persistence characteristics.Secondly, by constructing a Bayesian Vector Auto Regression (BVAR) model, this paper analysis the impacts response of macroeconomic on inflation and tests the threshold effects of inflation with various threshold variables by using the threshold model.This paper analysis the causes of inflation from the two aspects of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply and economic structure changes respectively. So based on these theoretical analysis and considering the economic operation and data availability of China, this paper research the impulse response of inflation to macroeconomic by constructing the six factors BVAR model of excess liquidity, stock price, output gap, international oil price, the real effective exchange rate and house price, and test the various threshold effects of inflation in different threshold variables by using the threshold model.The impulse response analysis of the BVAR model show that the inflation has a positive impact response to excess liquidity and the cumulative degree of response is the strongest which illustrate that the monetary factor is still the main factor of causing inflation in China. It has a negative impact response to the real effective exchange rate, which means that the revaluation of RMB plays a role in curbing inflation, but this effect is relatively weak. The stock price and house price are the same factors as asset prices, but the impact response of inflation on both of them are opposite, and also for the response intensity. The impact response of inflation on stock is positive, while on house price is negative, which indicating that there is only the wealth effect of the stock price which is mainly due to the different nature of the two assets in China. The impact response of inflation on international oil price is negative which is mainly due to the special structure of China’s energy industry as well as the lag transmission of oil price information.Thirdly, this paper characterizes the formation mechanism of inflation under open economy by using the nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) model. In the process of globalization of the world economy, the effect of external shocks on the China’s inflation is increasing. Therefore, this paper empirically study the impact of trade openness and external shocks on the inflation of China.Based on the traditional linear model and combined with RMB exchange rate and international oil price, this paper introduces smooth transition model and establish a nonlinear model between trade openness and inflation, and systematically investigate the evolution of relationship between trade openness, RMB exchange rate, international oil price and inflation at different periods and economic stages, by dynamic nonlinear Granger causality test. The empirical results indicate that there exists a significant nonlinear characteristics between trade openness and inflation, and the level of trade openness has an asymmetric effect on inflation, especially when considering the influence of external shocks, the asymmetric characteristic is more significant.It also has nonlinear Granger causality from trade openness, RMB exchange rate and international oil price to inflation in China. While the dynamic nonlinear Granger causality test further suggest that the nonlinear causality relationships between trade openness, RMB exchange, international oil price and inflation are changing constantly.Fourthly, this paper analysis the regional differences of the inflation formation mechanism and carried out a detailed analysis of the regional differences price effect of monetary policy. The theoretical analysis and empirical studies have shown that the formation of inflation is affected by multiple factors. However, due to the existing of the typical non-homogeneous characteristics of the level of economic development, industrial structure and corporate ownership structure, financial structure and economic openness degree of China’s various provinces, it will inevitably has an impact on the formation of inflation which lead to the currency differences inflation levels of the various regions. So these make China’s inflation perform highly running overall, while there are also significant regional characteristics.In view of this, this paper focuses on the regional differences in China’s inflation, and carries out a detailed analysis of the regional differences of the price effect of monetary policy.By using the parametric and nonparametric methods, this paper descriptively analysis the regional differences in inflation and the causing location factors, and finds that the regional differences is a dynamic process, but not a static. Secondly, this paper research the regional differences of the inflation formation mechanism considering the influence of the location factors as transition variables, which are the level of economic development, financial resources, corporate ownership structure and trade openness. The empirical results show that there are two changing points when make the economic development and financial resources as transition variables, while only on changing point when the corporate ownership structure and trade openness as transition variables. And all these empirical results indicate that there are significant regional differences of the inflation formation mechanism in China. Finally, this paper further analysis the empirical results of the established nonlinear dynamic panel model, that is to study the regional differences of the price effect of monetary policy, and the empirical results show that there are also significant regional differences of the effects of monetary policy according with various transition variables.All in all, by using the comparative international forward inflation theory and empirical research methods, this paper further research the inflation formation mechanism of China from multiple angles such as the inflation formation mechanism, influencing factors and the relationship with monetary policy. This studies play a positive role in promoting the research of the formation mechanism of inflation, influencing factors and monetary policy effects, which have some guiding significances for timely and appropriately fine-tuning and forward-looking adjustment of macroeconomic policy of Chinese government. Therefore, the research of this paper has both important theoretic value and practical significance.更多还原