【作者】 孟军；

【导师】 王维国；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 数量经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 资源节约、环境保护与经济增长是人类共同关心的话题,也是当今学术界关注的一个热点。其中,一个重要的焦点便是能源节约、碳减排和经济增长问题。在中国,如果认可能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长之间的不协调、不平衡之现状,那是因为中国工业化发展的阶段特征、城镇化推进过程中能源消耗(需求)结构的固化以及全球产业分工链条的低端化而导致的经济粗放式的增长。在面对能源短缺、碳排放和经济增长的矛盾及世界气候变化的国际压力,如何才能兑现中国在国际气候谈判中所作出的承诺,即到2020年中国的单位GDP二氧化碳排放(即GDP碳排放强度)比2005年下降40-45%,非化石能源占一次能源消耗比重达到15%左右,应从不同角度提出一个全面的能源资源节约和碳减排的对策。本文首先对资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长关系的研究文献进行了梳理,发现,主流的增长理论中,资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)经历了被忽视、重视和全面重视的不同发展阶段。随着自然资源(能源)因素在经济增长中作用的重视,以及经济增长对环境的破坏,尤其是自然资源(能源)的利用对环境污染的日益加重,如温室气体效应、酸雨及极端气候等,经济增长理论中的资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)问题,即三者的协调性、经济的可持续增长、能源的节约以及碳减排等问题成为了当前研究的核心。那么,问题的另一方面即是,在资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)的约束下,经济是否可以持续增长?文章分别基于新古典增长理论和新增长理论(内生增长理论),将能源资源和碳排放引入到增长模型中,并对各个参数进行了适当的设置,通过均衡解的解析,得出经济持续增长的基本条件是能源消耗的增长率不能大于能源存量的增长率,也就是说能源存量能够满足能源消耗(需求)的同时,污染物的增长率不能大于0,也就是说环境质量不能随着经济产出规模的扩大而无限下降。接下来,文章对中国经济增长的动因从能源消耗的角度进行了初步探索,并对中国能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长的协调性进行了实证测算。能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长的Granger因果检验表明能源消耗是碳排放和经济增长的Granger原因,能源消耗和碳排放互为Granger因果关系,碳排放和经济增长互为Granger因果关系。路径分析表明,能源消耗和经济增长呈双向因果关系,经济增长对碳排放存在因果关系,能源消耗对碳排放存在因果关系。这从一定程度上佐证了中国经济增长严重依靠能源消耗,并导致了环境不断恶化的结论。利用非线性规划技术,基于方向性距离函数衡量中国环境与经济产出的环境技术效率表明中国中西部地区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长都处于失衡状况,而东部沿海发达地区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济关系较为和谐,但是,整体上来讲中国各个省、市、自治区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长关系在不断在恶化。这些不协调性的佐证再一次说明中国能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长之间矛盾的尖锐性,中国经济绿色增长的实现任重而道远。既然,在一定条件下经济增长是可持续的,即资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长是可以协调发展的,因此,应通过政策或市场规律使得资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长协调、平衡发展,从根本上实现中国经济“又好又快”的发展。于是,在当前中国工业化和城市化的特殊历史阶段,一个更为直观的问题便是：一、在保持经济持续增长的前提下,中国如何实现能源的节约,尤其是一次性能源或化石能源资源消耗的真正节约；二、在保持经济持续增长的前提下,如何实现中国碳排放的真正下降。在这样两个明确的目标约束下以及中国能源的过度消耗,尤其是一次性化石能源的消耗,进而导致的污染物严重超标,尤其是碳排放严重超标之现状,文章重点讨论了中国经济持续增长下的能源节约对策和中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策。具体的,关于中国经济持续增长下的能源节约对策研究,主要从中国未来2015年和2020年能源强度目标出发,首先通过构建能源消耗的影响因素模型,将具有阶段性特征的工业化程度、城市化率等因素纳入到了模型当中,通过合理的能源消耗影响因素未来值的设定,预测出未来即2015年和2020年的人均能源消耗量,进而得到了预测能源强度值。其略高于政府计划值,说明中国未来能源节约的压力还较大。考虑到影响因素未来值设定的偏差,通过微调这些因素,进行单变量敏感性分析,发现产业结构的调整和技术进步将成为实现中国未来能源强度目标或能源节约的首选,其次是能源相对价格和贸易结构的改变。据此,本文提出能源节约的政策建议为,在进行积极倡导的同时,必须实施能源的强制节约。在此基础上,文章还基于省域和行业的角度,利用上述模型,通过建立面板数据模型对中国的节能路径进行全面地分析。从省域的来看,优化中国产业结构,降低工业尤其是耗能较高的行业在国民经济中的比例,有助于中国能源的节约；能源相对价格的提高不利于全国及低能源消耗组、中能源消耗组、高能源消耗组能源的节约；提高电力等效率较高的能源替代效率较低的煤炭有利于中国各个省、市、自治区最终能源的节约,但是对于不同的省、市、自治区要区别对待,因地制宜。从行业的角度来看,由于中国工业部门内部的诸多工业行业的能源消耗之间存在较大的差异,不同能耗特征的各个工业行业的能源消耗的显著影响因素及其影响程度大小的不尽相同,因此在保证中国经济持续增长的前提下,节能措施的采取应对不同的工业行业进行具体分析、区别对待。总的来讲,中国能源节约的重点行业是制造业,主要手段是技术进步。关于中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策研究,主要通过建立中国人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP关系的LSTR模型,并分别以经济增长速度和能源强度为阈值变量进行了分析。研究表明,中国人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP的关系在不同经济环境下(如不同的经济增长速度和能源强度)而不同。为了实现中国碳减排和经济增长之双赢,并使得能源节约、碳减排与经济增长协调发展,必须在如何降低能源强度上下功夫。文章还基于全国的角度、省域的角度和行业的角度对如何降低能源强度进行了全面的分析。由全国能源强度的结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM)的脉冲响应和方差分解分析可知,为了实现能源强度的下降,短期内,能源价格改革和扩大对外开放程度成为“迅速”降低中国能源强度的关键。长期而言,必须大力发展中国的可再生能源和清洁能源,彻底改变中国的能源消耗结构。由省域能源强度的脉冲响应和方差分解可知,对于各个省、市、自治区的碳减排要从不同方面(如产业政策等)区别对待。总体来讲,优化能源消耗结构和产业结构是降低各个省、市、自治区能源强度的关键,要以技术进步和能源价格调整做为降低能源强度主要手段。具体来说,对于高能源强度组的青海、贵州、山西和宁夏而言,主要在产业结构和能源消耗结构调整上下工夫；对于中能源消耗组的四川、重庆、黑龙江、陕西、云南、吉林、辽宁、河北、新疆、内蒙古和甘肃而言,应主要在调整产业结构和技术进步上下功夫；对于低能源消耗组的福建、广东、海南、江苏、上海、江西、广西、山东、北京、湖南、安徽、天津和河南而言,因各个影响因素的作用均较小,所以节能减排的压力也较小。由行业能源强度的脉冲响应和方差分解可知,各个影响因素受到冲击后,能源消耗结构、技术进步和能源价格具有反向作用,贸易结构具有正向作用,均对降低能源强度有积极的持续作用,其中作用最大的是能源消耗结构,其余的作用较小。从方差分解结果可以看出,能源相对价格和能源消耗结构的贡献最大,技术进步和贸易结构贡献较小。因此,对于行业而言,节能减排的重点依然是能源消耗结构的大力调整。更多还原

【Abstract】 Resource conservation is a common concern of mankind. Environmental protection and economic growth remain a focus of academic research, in which energy conservation, carbon emission reduction and economic growth occupy the prominant position. If we recognize the status quo of the imbalance and uncoordination between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, that is due to China’s extensive economic growth which brings about by the characteristics of the development of China’s industrialization, the curing demand structure in the stage of the process of promoting urbanization and the low-end of the global industrial division. So, in facing of the energy shortage, the contradiction between carbon emissions and economic growth and the international pressure on the world’s climate change, we should raise a comprehensive resource conservation and carbon emission reduction from different angles to achieve the commitments made by China in the international climate negotiations, that is the carbon dioxide emissions of per unit GDP (carbon intensity of GDP) decreased by40-45%in2020, compared to2005and the proportion of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption dropped to15%.Firstly, this paper combs the research literature on the relationship between resources (energy), the environment (carbon emissions) and economic growth, and finds that the resources and environment have gone through different development stages during which they are once neglected, payed full attention to in the mainstream economic growth theory. With the emphasis on the role of natural resources (energy) factors in economic growth, and environmental damage resulted from economic growth, especially the increasing environmental pollution which is caused by the consumption of natural resources, such as greenhouse gas effect, the resources and environmental issues in the theory of economic growth, the coordination of them, that is, the sustainable economic growth, energy saving and carbon emission reduction has become the core of the current study.However, another aspect of the problem is how we achieve sustainable economic growth under the constraints of resources (energy) and environment (carbon emissions). This paper, based on the neoclassical growth theory and new growth theory (endogenous growth theory) respectively, by bringing energy resources and carbon emissions into the economic growth model, and setting for the various parameters appropriately, and parsing through the equilibrium solution, reaches the basic conditions for sustained economic growth, that is the growth rate of energy consumption can not be greater than the stock of energy, which means that the stock of energy has to meet the energy demand, while the growth rate of the pollutants can not be greater than0, that is the quality of the environment can not be declined infinitely with the scale of the economic output.Secondly, the article makes a preliminary study of the motivation of China’s economic growth from the perspective of energy consumption, and does an empirical estimate of the coordination of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. The Granger causality tests of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth show that the energy consumption constitutes a mutual causal relationship with carbon emissions and economic growth; The path analysis show that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; economic growth has causal relationship on carbon emissions and is also the same for energy consumption and carbon emissions, which, to some extent, indicates that China’s economic growth is heavily dependent on energy consumption and leads to the environment deterioration. Next, by using the nonlinear programming techniques, the article measures the environment efficiency of the environment and economic output based on directional distance function. The results indicate that the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is in imbalance in central and western regions of China; while, it’s harmonious in the developed eastern coastal regions; however, the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth continues to deteriorate on the terms of each province in China. The uncoordinated relationship shows once again that the sharp contradictions between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, so there is still a long way to go for achieving China’s economic green growth.Since, under the certain conditions, economic growth is sustainable, that is the resources (energy), environment (carbon emissions) and economic growth can be developed coordinately, therefore, we shall adopt policies or market’s laws to achive coordination and balance development of the three factors, and to achieve the’good and fast’ development of China’s economy fundamentally. Thus, in the particular historical stage of China’s industrialization and urbanization, a more intuitive problem is that:under the premise of maintaining sustainable economic growth, how to control the consumptions of energy, especially the one-off or fossil energy resources, and how to achieve a real reduction of carbon emissions in China.Under the two clearly objectives and the current stage of China’s excessive energy consumption, in particular the consumption of disposable fossil energy, which causes pollutants seriously overweight, especially over carbon emissions, the paper focuses on the energy saving countermeasures under China’s sustainable economic growth and the carbon emission reduction countermeasures under China’s continuous economic growth.The research of resource saving countermeasures under China’s sustained economic growth starting from the energy intensity targets in the coming2015and2020is mainly a model construction of energy consumption and the causing factors, in which the stage of industrialization and urbanization are considered.By setting the coming value of energy influencing factors, this paper predicts per capita energy consumption in2015and2020, and then gets the predicted energy intensity value which is slightly higher than the government planned value, which shows that China’s future energy economical pressure still remains high. Finally, giving the deviation of setting the future value of the influencing factors, this paper makes univariate sensitivity analysis by fine-tuning these factors, and finds that the adjustment of industrial structure and technological progress will become preferred choice to achieve future energy intensity target or energy conservation of China, followed by changing energy relative prices and trade structure. Accordingly, this paper proposes the policy recommendations of energy savings which is that we must implement mandatory energy savings during active advocating energy savings. On this basis, the article also makes a comprehensive analysis by using the above model to establish the panel data model from the provincial and industrial point view of. Provincially, China’s energy savings can be achived by optimizing the industrial structure and reducing the proportion of some industries, especially the high energy-consuming industries in the national economy; to enhance relative energy prices is not conducive to energy consumption savings of China, and it harms the low-energy, mid-energy and high-energy consumption units; improving the high efficiency energy such as electric power to replace the low efficiency energy such as coal is conducive to ultimate energy consumption savings of China, but different measures should be taken according to local conditions. From the industry perspective, there is a big difference of energy consumption between many industries within China’s industrial sectors, so the significantly influencing factors and the size of impact of energy consumption are various in the differently industries with different energy consumption characteristics. Therefore, under the premising of China’s sustained economic growth, the energy saving measures should be specific analysis and treated differently for different industries. Generally, the key energy-saving industry are manufacturing and the primary means is relying on the technological progress.The research of carbon emission reduction countermeasures of China under sustainable economic growth is mainly through establishing the LSTR model of carbon dioxide emissions per capita and GDP per capita, by using the rate of economic growth and energy intensity as the threshold variable respectively. The results show that the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and GDP per capita is various under different economic environment (such as different economic growth rate and energy intensity). To achieving a win-win of carbon emission reduction and economic growth, and making the coordinating development between energy savings, carbon emissions and economic growth, we must work hard on how to reduce energy intensity. Next, this paper comprehensively analyze how to reduce energy intensity based on the point of view of the national, provinces and industries. By analyzing the impulse response and variance decomposition of the structure vector error correction model (SVECM) of the national energy intensity, we find that the energy price reform and improving the openness are the key reasons to reduce energy intensity quickly in the short-term, while in the long-term, we must vigorously develop renewable energy and clean energy to changer our energy consumption structure completely. From the provincial energy intensity impulse response and variance decomposition, we find that the carbon emission reduction should be treated differently for various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from different aspects. Overall, it’s the key to reduce energy intensity of various provinces which is optimizing the energy consumption structure and industrial structure, and make technological progress and energy price adjusting as the main means of reducing energy intensity. Specifically, for the higher energy intensity group, which include the province of Qinghai, Guizhou, Shanxi and Ningxia, we have to make effort on the adjustment of the industrial structure and energy consumption; for the mid energy intensity group, which include Sichuan, Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, we have focus on adjusting industrial structure and technological progress; for the low energy intensity group, which consist of Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Shandong, Beijing, Hunan, Anhui, Tianjin and Henan, due to the role of the various factors are smaller, so the pressure on energy savings is smaller. By analyzing the impulse response and variance decomposition of industry energy intensity, we find that, after impacting various influencing factors, there exist the reverse effect between energy consumption structure, technological progress and energy prices, while a positive role for trade structure, both have the actively continuing effect to reducing energy intensity, in which the effect of energy consumption structure is the largest and the rest are less. From the variance decomposition results, it can be seen that the contributions of energy prices and energy consumption structure to energy savings is the largest and is small for technological progress and trade structure. Therefore, for the terms of industries, the focus of energy saving is still based on the deeply adjustment of the structure of energy consumption.更多还原