【作者】 彭佳红；

【导师】 邹冬生；

【作者基本信息】 湖南农业大学 ， 生态学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 为了提高生态公益林服务功能价值评价的科学性和智能决策性,本文以生态经济学原理为指导,集成生态经济系统理论与方法,以及计算机软件与人工智能技术,开展了湖南省生态公益林服务功能价值评价智能决策支持系统研究,主要研究结果如下：1、针对湖南省生态公益林的结构、功能以及区域特性,选取杉木、马尾松、阔叶树、竹林、疏林灌木林等为主要林种类型,构建了以涵养水源、保育土壤、固碳释氧、生物贮能、生物多样性保护、公益林景观和游憩等为主体服务功能的价值评价指标体系与指标定量评价模型。2、结合需求分析和智能决策支持系统的特征,设计了湖南省生态公益林服务功能价值评价智能决策支持系统的前台和后台功能；构建了多种模型协同运作的模型库,对服务功能价值定量评价、影响服务功能价值的能力指标以及因素分析比较、生态公益林需求量进行预测；同时构建了知识库,通过数据挖掘中的关联规则、决策树和聚类分析获取了优势树种、起源、年龄、胸径、高度和郁闭度等林分信息之间生态公益林生长知识和决策树分析的分类知识,以及林种类型服务功能价值的功能性聚类知识。3、集成使用轻量级JavaEE的Struts2+Spring+Ibatis框架技术、MVC设计模式和数据库访问技术,实现了集界面友好、人机交互协同定性定量评价分析、数据挖掘、辅助预测与决策、以及可视化输出等多功能为一体、基于B/S结构的湖南省生态公益林服务功能价值智能决策支持系统。4、应用本系统对湖南省生态公益林服务功能价值进行定性定量评价、分析以及需求量预测实证研究。实证指出,湖南省生态公益林生态服务功能总价值为4032.04亿元,其中涵养水源、保育土壤、固定C02、释放02、生物贮能、生物多样性保护与生态旅游的服务功能价值分别合计为154.24亿元、143.99亿元、931.70亿元、2206.77亿元、250.50亿元、217.61亿元与127.23亿元,杉木、马尾松、阔叶树、竹林和疏林灌木林的服务功能总价值分别为1007.38亿元、850.54亿元、1112.37亿元、456.64亿元和605.11亿元；同时指出了不同林种服务功能能力差异,给出了基于区域社会经济和环境信息的公益林需求量预测模型；并且表明了本智能决策支持系统的可行性、有效性与实用性,能够辅助生态公益林科学管理与智能决策支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to improve the level of scientific and intelligent decision making in the value evaluation of the service function of ecological public welfare forest, this thesis exerts the ecological economics principles, integrates ecological economic system theories and methods with computer software and artificial intelligence technology, carried out the research on the intelligent Decision Support System that evaluates the value of service functions of Hunan province’s ecological public welfare forests. Main results were as follows:1. According to the structures, functions and regional features of Hunan province’s ecological public welfare forests, some main types of forests, like firs, Chinese red pines, broadleaf trees, bamboo forest, shrub forest was selected to construct the value evaluation index system and quantitative index evaluation model with water conserving, soil nursing, CO2fixing, O2emitting, bio-energy storing, biodiversity protection, public welfare landscape and relaxation as primary service functions.2. According to the features of demand analysis and IDSS, the foreground and background of service function value evaluation IDSS of Hunan province’s ecological public welfare forest was designed. The model base consisting of multiple models running collaboratively was built, which can carry out quantitative evaluation on above service functions, comparative analysis of capability indices and factors impacting the value of service functions as well as the demand forecasting of ecological public welfare forests. At the same time, the system’s knowledge base was built, and knowledge relating to the growth of ecological public welfare forest, decision making tree analysis and the functional clustering of forest types were acquired through the exertion of correlation rule, decision making tree and clustering analysis in data mining, the acquired knowledge was from the analysis of origin, age, chest diameter, height and closing degree of preponderant tree varieties.3. The combination of Struts2, Spring and Ibatis, a JavaEE’s lightweight framework technology, together with MVC designing pattern and database access technology, were integrated into the IDSS that evaluates the value of service functions of Hunan province’s ecological public welfare forests. Thery were confirmed that IDSS bases on B/S structure implements had friendly interface, the qualitative and quantitative analysis were integrated, all of data mining, aides forecasting and decision were as well as visual output, etc.4. The empirical research on qualitative and quantitative evaluation, analysis and prediction of Hunan province’s ecological public welfare forests based on this system was carried out. The results showed that the total value of service functions of Hunan province’s ecological public welfare forests was RMB403.204billion, which included15.424billion in water conserving,14.399billion in soil nursing,93.170billion in CO2fixing,220.677billion in O2emission,25.050billion in bio-energy storing,21.761billion in biodiversity protection and12.723billion in ecological tourism, and the total value of service functions of firs, Chinese red pines, broadleaf trees, bamboo forest, shrub forest was100.738billion,85.054billion,111.237billion,45.664billion and60.511billion respectively. The results also showed the differences in service ability of different forest types and a demand forecasting model of public welfare forest based on regional social economy and environmental information was given. The feasibility, effectiveness and practicability of this IDSS were confirmed by the results. Therefore, this IDSS can be used to aid the scientific management and intelligent decision making of public welfare forest.更多还原