【作者】 周胜强；

【导师】 孙森；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 金融学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 自1997年亚洲金融危机,特别是2008年全球金融危机以及欧债危机以来,世界各国不约而同地将调整经济结构(主要是调整产业结构)作为应对危机、走出困境,保持经济持续增长的主要手段和途径。经过三十多年的改革开放,中国已经发展成为世界第二大经济体,在经济总量矛盾已基本解决的情况下,结构性矛盾已成为影响中国经济发展的主要障碍。能否尽快促进和实现结构的调整升级,成为保持国民经济长期增长的关键。关于金融促进结构调整,西方发达国家走的是一条以资本市场促进结构调整的间接调控的“道路”。而处在经济转型时期的发展中国家,在产业结构调整任务迫切、市场机制还很不完善、间接融资占主导地位的经济条件下,并没有把促进结构调整的职能完全交给市场,通过制定实施信贷政策,对银行信贷投放进行了引导和干预,以促进产业结构调整和经济发展。但是在理论研究上,西方经济金融理论、中央银行教科书中没有关于信贷政策促进产业结构调整的阐述,而国内的研究没有摆脱货币政策框架下研究结构调整问题的理论束缚,对不完全市场条件下促进产业结构调整的信贷政策的内涵、作用、机制、目标、工具等关键问题还缺乏系统、深入的研究,没有形成一个完整的信贷政策理论体系。论文从理论和实践的角度,尝试研究建立不完全市场条件下、基于促进产业结构调整的信贷政策理论体系,并对我国信贷政策的再实践提出新的思路和有益的建议。论文第2、3章,介绍了有关理论基础及其与信贷政策的关系,并从实践层面,对一些国家信贷政策促进产业结构调整的情况进行了考察,总结分析了国外有益的经验和教训。在此基础上,第4、第5章系统研究分析了当前我国经济条件下的信贷政策的有关理论问题,对于信贷政策是什么、为什么需要信贷政策、其作用、政策制定主体、传导机制、政策目标、与其他政策的关系、以及政策工具及使用等问题,从理论上进行系统、全面的论述,从五个方面建立了信贷市场不完全条件下的、基于促进产业结构调整的信贷政策理论体系,这是目前学术研究很少涉及的。首先,从货币政策与促进产业结构调整和信贷政策相矛盾的角度出发,分析提出了“信贷政策独立于货币政策”的观点,并重新对信贷政策进行了定义；在此基础上,针对当前学术研究的争议,探讨了信贷政策存在的必要性问题,分析提出了信贷政策的作用是调整银行投放并在一定程度上弥补市场机制缺失和促进银行机构防范信贷风险、政策制定实施的主体是中央银行等观点。其次,从不完全市场条件下的信贷市场运行机制入手,以信贷配给理论为基础,运用模型分析了信贷政策影响银行信贷投放、信贷投放影响产业结构的信贷政策传导机制。通过对三个命题的证明,说明信贷政策可以通过影响银行贷款的成本、收入与风险来引导银行的信贷投放。第三,根据产业发展和产业政策的有关理论,分析提出了信贷政策促进产业结构调整的目标包括促进主导产业和战略性新兴产业加快发展、推动支柱产业优化升级、支持基础产业发展、限制特定行业发展等四个方面,并建立了衡量信贷政策目标实现的标准。第四,进一步分析了信贷政策与货币政策、产业政策的关系,探讨了制定信贷政策应遵循的主要原则和信贷政策发挥作用的环境。第五,在研究分析了信贷政策工具及其种类,总结提出了信贷政策工具使用的原则,对各个工具的特点和适用范围进行了分析归纳,并运用模型分析的方法,分析了不同类型的工具在信贷政策传导中的作用。从第6章开始转入到对我国实践的分析。第6章回顾、分析了新中国成立特别是改革开放以来中央银行促进产业结构调整的实践和问题。第7章对信贷政策在天津、河北、山西、内蒙古四省区市的实施效果进行了统计分析和实证检验,建立了三个含有虚拟变量的多元线性回归模型,并运用HP滤波法,分别对信贷政策与信贷结构、信贷政策与地区贷款总量、信贷结构与地区产业结构优化的关系进行了分析。实证表明,我国信贷政策对商业银行信贷投放存在的积极影响。第8章基于论文所建立的信贷政策理论体系,针对存在的问题,从完善信贷政策的制度安排,制定实施以促进产业结构调整为目标的信贷政策、提高信贷政策执行的有效性等三个方面,对完善我国信贷政策提出了一些新的建议。论文研究所提出的一些观点,不仅是对现有学术研究的突破和创新,而且这些观点及其论述共同形成了信贷市场不完全条件下的、基于促进产业结构调整的信贷政策理论体系,这更是现有研究所没有涉及到的,从而为我国制定实施信贷政策提供了理论支持,所提出的部分政策建议也就具有了参考的价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the Asia Financial Crisis in1997, especially the global financial crisis in2008and European sovereign debt crisis, every country in the world has chosen economic restructuring (mainly through industrial structure adjustment) as a major way to cope with crisis, exit from difficulties and maintain economic growth. By conducting reform and opening up policy in the last three decades, China has grown into the second largest economy in the world. Against the backdrop of an increased economic size, conflicts in the economic structure have become an obvious obstacle in China’s growth. How to restructure and upgrade the economy as soon as possible thus becomes the key in order to maintain economic growth in the long run.In western countries they have adopted an indirect way which uses capital market to encourage structure adjustment through finance medium. However, in developing countries, the economy still experiences transition, industrial restructuring is under urgent demand, market mechanism is less-developed, and indirect finance plays a dominant role, therefore market hasn’t taken a complete function in economic restructuring. Instead this role is taken through conducting credit policy to guide and intervene with credit lending in commercial banks for the purpose of industrial structure adjustment and economic growth.However in theoretical studies, there are no relevant demonstrations on using credit policy to promote industrial restructuring either in western economic and financial theories or in central banking textbooks. Existing research in China is bounded by the theoretical mechanism of studying structure adjustment under monetary policy framework, and hasn’t reached consensus on some important issues such as the meaning, function, mechanism, goals and tools of credit policy in promoting industrial restructuring, neither has constructed a complete credit policy theory framework. Gaps and lags in theoretical research lead to confused thinking and understanding, and increasingly prevents the role of credit policy.From the perspective of theory and practice, the paper research on a credit policy theory framework of promoting industrial structure adjustment under incomplete credit market.In chapter Ⅱ and Ⅲ, the paper introduces relevant theories and their relationships with credit policy, examines some countries’ experience of promoting industrial structure adjustment through national credit policy from a practical perspective, and sums up some useful experience and lessons from foreign countries. Based on this analysis, the paper then conducts systemic research on China’s credit policy theory under current economic conditions. In Chapter IV and V the paper systematically and thoroughly demonstrates a series problems from a theoretical perspective including what is credit policy, why we need credit policy, its function, policy making authority, transmission mechanism, policy targets, its relationship with other policies, and policy tools and usage. A credit policy theory framework of promoting industrial structure adjustment under incomplete credit market is constructed in five aspects. First, from the conflicting goals of monetary policy and promoting industrial structure adjustment, it advances that "credit policy is independent of monetary policy", and redefines the meaning of credit policy. On this basis, in response to current arguments in academia, the paper brings about the views that the role of credit policy is to adjust bank lending and make up the gap in market mechanism and promote the banks to prevent lending risks, policy making authority is the central bank etc. Second, from the viewpoint of credit market working mechanism under incomplete market and on the basis of credit rationing theory, the paper applies the perspectives of lending cost, income and risk to construct models which analyzes the credit policy transmission mechanism through which credit policy influences bank lending, and bank lending influences industrial structure adjustment. Third, based on, the theories of industry development and industry policy, the paper demonstrates the targets of credit policy to promote industrial structure adjustment consisting of four aspects, including encouraging rapid development of leading and strategic uprising industries, promoting upgrading of pillar industries, supporting fundamental industries and restricting specific industries, and builds up the benchmark to measure fulfillment of credit policy targets. Fourth, the paper elaborates the relationships of credit policy with monetary policy and industry policy, environment of credit policy and major principles of formulating credit policy. Fifth, in response to gaps in current academia, the paper conducts research on the tools of credit policy and its types and functions, categorizes each type’s characteristics and application scope, sums up the principles of using credit policy tools, and uses modeling analysis to demonstrate the roles of each tool in credit policy transmission.From Chapter VI the paper starts to analyze practice in China. Chapter VI reviews and analyzes the practice and problems in central bank promoting industrial restructuring since the foundation of New China especially since economic reform and opening up. Chapter VII conducts statistical analysis and test on credit policy effects in Tianjin, Hebei Province, Shanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from2006to2010respectively, constructs three multi-linear regression models with dummy variables, and uses HP filter method to study the relationships of credit policy and lending structure, credit policy and regional credit aggregate, lending structure and optimizing regional industrial structure respectively. Evidence examination shows that China’s credit policy has a positive influence on commercial banks’lending behavior. Based on the theory framework of credit policy constructed in this paper and in order to tackle some current issues, Chapter VIII gives out some innovative suggestions on improving credit policy formulation from three aspects, including optimizing institutional arrangement of credit policy, conducting credit policy around industrial structure adjustment, and increasing the effectiveness of credit policy’s execution.Some viewpoints in this paper not only are breakthrough and innovation to existing studies, but also construct a credit policy theory framework about encouraging industrial restructuring under incomplete credit market, which hasn’t been covered in previous academic research. Therefore, this paper provides theoretical support for adopting credit policy to adjust credit lending, and its suggestions are worth considering for policy making.更多还原