【作者】 林冬梅；

【导师】 刘军；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 我国铁路客运网络的扩展、网络售票的推广和旅客出行需求的不断增长,为旅客出行服务的发展提供了良好的契机。旅客出行服务问题的研究旨在为出行者提供全程的个性化出行方案,对提升出行服务运营企业和中介企业的服务品质有着重要的意义。本文提出了一般化的旅客出行服务设计和评价问题,并结合我国铁路客运的特点,针对铁路旅程规划和出行方案可靠性评价进行了研究。论文主要研究工作包括：1.从旅客出行的时空活动出发,将旅客出行全过程抽象为由出行服务构成的出行方案。以规划全程出行方案为目标,从时空结合的角度提出了旅客出行服务设计问题,给出了通用模型和一般求解过程,突破了原有研究将出行规划时空问题分割的缺陷。2.以出行方案的可靠性为评价对象提出了旅客出行服务评价问题,并对不同领域出行服务评价问题的基本特征和共性进行了分析,从理论上提出了出行方案的时间可靠性和服务能力可靠性评价的一般方法。3.针对我国铁路旅程规划问题,以铁路客运服务为描述对象建立了铁路换乘服务网络,给出了铁路旅客出行方案的定义,建立了不同优化目标下,可实现不限中转地点和同城换乘的旅程规划问题模型。4.针对铁路旅程规划模型,提出了换乘节点匹配法和高等级节点优先法对模型进行快速求解。前者采用先求可行解后优化的两阶段求解思路,可快速求解一定换乘次数以内的最优出行方案；后者采用优先寻找较高等级节点作为中转城市的方法,通过节省搜索空间能够快速求解较优的可行出行方案。算法经实例验证。5.针对铁路旅客出行方案可靠性评价问题,分析了可靠性评价研究的层次和影响可靠性的因素,然后从服务层次角度提出了行程时间可靠性评价和服务能力可靠性评价两个问题。6.针对行程时间可靠性评价问题,研究了单弧段行程时间可靠性的评价方法和换乘出行方案的接续可靠性评价方法,提出了通过分析列车延误历史数据评价出行方案接续可靠性的方法,并经算例验证。7.针对服务能力可靠性评价问题,结合我国铁路客票系统数据的现状,从旅客购票难易程度出发,提出了通过分析列车票额和旅客历史购票规律判断OD间购票紧张程度,进而评价出行方案服务能力可靠性的方法,并经实例验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 The expansion of China’s railway passenger network, the popularization of online ticketing and growing passenger travel demand have laid the foundation for the development of travel services. Researches on travel services aim to provide travelers with personalized travel plans that cover their whole journey. The researches have a significant influence to improve the service quality of travel service providers and agencies. This paper proposes a generalized travel services problem and dissects it into two subproblems, design and evaluation. From the perspective of railway travelers, this paper focuses on the model and algorithms for railway travel planning problem, as well as methods on reliability evaluation of railway travel plans. The main research work of this paper can be concluded as follows:1. For all intents and purposes, a traveler’s journey consists of a series of activities, so the whole journey can be abstracted as a travel plan consisted of travel services that support travel activities. In order to design travel plans that cover the whole journey the paper proposes a novel problem-travel services design problem (TSDP) from the perspective of combining time and space. A generalized model and solution of TSDP is proposed, which breaks the limitation that existent researches separate time and space problems.2. From the perspective of evaluating the reliability of travel plans, the paper presents travel services evaluation problem (TSEP). Common characteristics of TSEP in different fields are analyzed, and the paper theoretically proposes the general evaluation methods on reliability of travel time and service capacity.3. For railway travel planning problem, a transit service network is constructed to describe railway passenger services. The definition of railway travel plan is given. A railway travel planning model with personalized optimization objectives is proposed, and it models a realistic travel planning problem with non-designated transfer points and possible co-station transfers.4. To solve railway travel planning model, the paper proposes two algorithms with respect to different application scope. First algorithm is called transfer node matching. Following a two-stage strategy, it searches a set of feasible travel plans within a certain number of transfers and then from the set selects optimal travel plans. The other algorithm is called ranking-based travel plan search. When searching travel plans, it chooses alternative transit cities from a selective set of prioritized cities. As it saves search space, the algorithm can efficiently find feasible travel plans. Examples of both algorithms are given.5. For railway travel plan reliability evaluation, it discusses the levels of reliability researches and factors that affect travel time reliability and service capacity reliability. From the perspective of service reliability, the paper focuses on the following two issues: travel time reliability evaluation and service capacity reliability evaluation.6. In travel time reliability evaluation, methods to measure travel time reliability of a single-legged travel plan and connecting reliability of a multi-legged travel plan are proposed. Travel time reliability and connecting reliability can be calculated based on trains’ punctuality data.7. In service capacity reliability evaluation, considering the status quo of China Railway Ticketing System’s data structure, the paper proposes a method to assess the train’s service capacity reliability by measuring the degree of difficulty for passengers to buy tickets. The probability of tickets in short supply is calculated by analyzing the process of passengers buying tickets, and then the service capacity reliability of a travel plan is measured based on the probabilities.更多还原