金融发展视角下FDI溢出效应对贸易增长的影响研究

【作者】 李华敏；

【导师】 周晓唯；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 国民经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 在金融发展视角下,FDI、国际贸易与经济增长的关系成为经济学领域研究的热点问题。金融发展对于FDI溢出效用促进经济增长的文献逐渐增多,在内生增长理论的基础上,随着FDI进入数量增多,引入外资企业获得的技术外溢效应越多,东道国通过FDI的技术溢出效用越增加,本国的贸易增长效用越大。经济一体化的加快,金融市场与贸易在不同地域间产业的融合与互动关系日益加剧,金融、FDI与贸易的关系越来越引起学者们的重视,金融发展能否通过FDI影响对外贸易?金融发展如何影响一国的贸易结构,促进一国的经济增长?尤其是否促进我国外贸出口的规模增长和外贸出口的结构的优化?影响的机理和途径是什么?这些问题都是金融发展理论和国际贸易理论中的前沿问题。本文构建了金融发展、FDI影响贸易增长的理论框架,力求在前人研究的基础上,归纳出金融发展如何通过FDI对贸易增长影响的机理体系。并对贸易增长影响因素进行分析,并分别建立了金融发展、FDI对贸易影响的机理与传导模型。在模型分析上,从宏观经济视角运用VAR模型对金融发展和FDI两个变量、与贸易增长的关系进行分析和协整检验。从地域视角对各区域金融发展的对贸易效应进行了实证检验,并分析金融发展规模、效率及金融市场对贸易发展的规模和外贸出口商品结构发展的差异性影响程度。进一步从产业结构与升级视角检验了金融发展我国对贸易影响的传导途径,利用增长理论、规模经济、融资规模对制造业出口结构影响的作用机理,进一步探寻金融发展如何影响我国贸易的增长,通过金融市场的发展带动贸易结构的优化,促进经济增长的可持续性。本文主要以内生增长理论、金融深化理论等相关理论为研究基础,并结合实证研究方法,试图探究不同金融发展水平下,FDI溢出效应对促进贸易增长、经济增长的影响途径。在金融发展视角下,FDI溢出效应通过不同路径来推动我国贸易的增长,进而促进国家的经济增长,由于我国金融市场发展的不完善性,金融市场促进FDI溢出效应的作用并不显著。金融发展对FDI的技术进步的影响不显著,因此需要国家重视贸易政策,加大对贸易的支持力度,促进金融市场的发展和金融结构的完善,增强金融市场的效率促进FDI溢出的技术吸收能力。进一步发展我国金融体系以促进FDI的经济溢出效应,增进贸易增长,增强经济增长的可持续性,并提出了相应的政策建议。本文的主要创新点在于：(1)构建了金融发展对贸易增长影响的机理框架。在理论综述和比较分析的基础上,结合金融发展理论、FDI溢出效应理论和国际贸易理论,分析金融发展前提下,FDI溢出效用对贸易发展的影响路径,建立本研究的理论框架。(2)基于金融发展、FDI溢出对贸易的影响机理和传动路径的分析,以国家、地域、产业三个视角利用面板数据,通过建立多变量VAR模型,协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等方法进行实证检验。对金融发展影响贸易增长进行建模研究,使用单位根检验过程与独立回归的判别标准,对其影响关系进行相关问题的验证。研究结论支持了金融发展和贸易增长之间理论上存在的关系,不同层面的检验表明传动机理的影响过程有一定的差异。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the perspective of financial development, the relationships among FDI, international trade and economic growth have become hot issues of economic research.The literature of FDI spillover effect promoting economic growth under financial development is gradually increased.Based on the endogenous growth theory,as the number of FDI entering into China is on the rise, the more technology spillover effect obtained by the domestic enterprises, the more technology spillover accumulation of the host country through FDI, and the more trade growth effect of the country’s economy.With the further development of economic integration,financial market and trade’s industry fusion and transmission relationship between different regions have become increasingly prominent, so more and more attentions are payed to the issues of FDI, finance and trade. Can financial development influence foreign trade through the FDI? How does financial development influence trade structure and then promoting the economic growth of a Country? Especially whether it promotes the growth of China’s foreign trade export scale and export structure optimization? And what are the influencing mechanism and ways? These questions are the frontier problems in the theory of financial development and international trade.This paper has constructed the theory framework of financial development and FDI influencing trade growth,and striving to summarize the mechanism of the financial development affecting trade growth through FDI on the basis of previous scholars’ research.And then analyzed the influencing factors of the trade development, furthermore separately established mechanism model and conduction model of financial development’s impact on trade.On the analysis of the models, using VAR model to take an empirical testing about financial development,FDI and their relationships with trade growth from the macro-economic perspective.In the meantime,it has tested about the foreign trade effect of the regional financial development from regional perspective,and analyzed the difference influence degree of financial development scale, efficiency and financial market on the trade development’scale and structure of foreign trade exports. From the upgrading of industrial structure perspectivet has further inspected the conduction ways of the financial development’s impact on foreign trade in our country, the use of growth theory, economy of scale, financing scale for manufacturing export structure influence mechanism, furthermore find out how does financial development affect our country’s trade growth and the perfection of trade structure,and then the sustainability of economic growth.This paper is mainly based on the endogenous economic growth theory and the financial development theory, combining empirical analysis method, tries to study the influencing paths of FDI spillover effect simulating trade growth and economic growth under different levels of financial development.In the perspective of financial development, FDI spillover effect promotes our country’s trade growth through different routes, and then promotes the economic growth of our country. Because of the imperfection of the financial market’s development, the role of the financial market promoting FDI spillover effect is not obvious. Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to the trade policy, and increase the strength of financial’s support on trade, and then improve the development of the financial market and perfection of the financial structure.Then further develop China’s financial system and perfect financial market to promote the FDI spillover effect, promote trade growth, enhance the sustainability of economic growth, and proposes the specific policy recommendations.The main innovative points are:1. It has built the mechanism frame of financial development’s influence on trade. On the basis of related theoretical overview and comparative analysis, combining the theory of financial development, FDI spillover effect and international trade, this paper has analyzed the mechanism and transmission effect between FDI spillover effect and trade development under the financial development, and put forward a theory analysis system of the financial development’s influence on China’s foreign trade.2. Based on the analysis of influencing mechanism and transmission path between financial developmentFDI spillover and trade,it has established a multivariate VAR model through the panel data analysis, and applied methods such as co integration test and Granger causality test to the empirical test from the national perspective, regional perspective and industrial perspective.Models and analyses are made of the financial development’s impact on trade growth,and use the unit root process and independent regression discriminated rule to verify the influencing relationships.The research conclusion demonstrated the existing relationships between financial development and trade growth in theory, and the tests of different levels show different influencing processes of the transmission mechanism.更多还原