【作者】 何文；

【导师】 安虎森；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 区域经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 随着外需对于我国经济高速增长的支撑作用日益减退,内需将成为推动我国经济保持高速增长最重要的驱动力。国家总理李克强曾说过：“城镇化是扩大内需的最大潜力”。改革开放三十多年来,我国的城镇化率从不足20%提高到了超过50%,城镇化速度很快,大量的农民涌入城镇,为我国经济发展源源不断地贡献着廉价劳动力,“人口红利”成为我国经济腾飞的重要支柱,但是我国城镇化的质量并不高,城镇化进程没有带来城乡差距的缩小,反而使得城乡矛盾更加尖锐。为了有利于从质和量两方面全面推进我国的城镇化进程,本文对城镇化的内生机制和影响因素进行深入的分析。通过对相关理论的回顾,本文以新经济地理学理论以及城乡二元结构理论作为理论基础,把我国国情作为现实基础,构建适用于分析我国城镇化进程的理论模型。并利用我国的现实数据对结论进行了实证检验。通过理论分析和实证检验,本文得到了下列结论：第一,居民消费结构中工业品所占份额的提高、工业品交易成本的降低、耕地的减少以及农业生产的规模化程度的提高是城镇化的推动力：而居民对住房重视程度的提高和房价水平的上升、城镇土地规模的扩张、农产品交易成本的降低以及户籍歧视则构成了城镇化的阻碍。在推动力中,居民消费结构变化的影响举足轻重,而其他因素影响较小。第二,居民消费结构中工业品所占份额的上升、居民对住房重视程度的提高、农村居住环境改善、工农业品交易成本的降低、房价水平的降低、农业生产规模化程度的提高以及工农业生产技术的进步提高了居民福利水平；而人口的增加、耕地的减少和城镇土地规模的扩张则降低了居民的福利水平。第三,城乡居民之间的实际福利差距略小于名义收入差异。户籍歧视提高城镇居民的福利水平,但是降低农民和农民工的福利水平；对于后者的降低效果远大于对于前者的提高效果,并且对于前者的提高效果日益减弱,而对于后者的降低效果则逐渐增强。相对于城镇居民,农民和农民工对于户籍歧视更为敏感,从而通过自身的调整,在一定程度上削弱了户籍歧视的影响。第四,按照2011年水平估算,如果完全消除城乡体制造成的户籍歧视,将提高实际城镇化率超过约二十个百分点,并提高农民和农民工福利水平近一倍,但会降低城镇居民福利水平约四分之一。第五,城镇体系的变化对于城镇化水平的影响较小；城镇的扩张模式受到居民消费结构、企业的市场势力以及工农业品的交易成本的影响,当前我国大多数地区的城镇对于企业的聚集力并不够强。最后,本文以这些结论为基础,逐一给出了相应的政策建议。通过总结,本文认为城镇化是一项系统工程,推进城镇化不能割裂城乡之间的联系,要兼顾城镇和农村的发展,此外还需要考虑城镇体系建设和城镇发展模式。本文在理论研究中,创新性地引入了农业生产的规模收益递减和耕地规模有限假设,从而使得理论分析框架更符合我国等发展中国家的情况。此外,通过对于现实中物流运输过程的考察,本文总结出了产品运输的经济体模式,并在此模式下尝试把理论研究的空间视角拓展到二维。城镇化是一个非常重要同时也是非常复杂的研究主题。本文的研究得到了许多有意义的结论,但还有很多尚待挖掘之处,对这一主题的研究需要继续并深入探索。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the supporting role of external demands for China’s high economic growth increasingly reduced, domestic demand will become the most important driving force to keep China’s economy growing at a good clip.Premier Li Keqiang once said that the urbanization is the greatest potential to expand domestic demand. For the last30years of reform and opening-up, China’s urbanization rate has risen from less than20%to more than50%, and the urbanization progress is significantly fast with a large number of fanners rushing into cities and towns, who continuously provide cheap labors to our country’s economic development. Demographic dividend has become the important pillar of China’s economic take-off. But the quality of urbanization in our country is deficiency. The process of urbanization did not narrow the gaps between the urban areas and rural areas;on the contrary, it made contradictions become increasingly acute. In order to advance the urbanization process from the aspects of both quality and quantity, this paper will analyzes both the mechanism and influence factors of urbanization deeply.After reviewing the relevant theories, this paper builds a theoretical model which is suitable to analyze the urbanization process in China, on the base of the new economic geography theory and the urban&rural dual structure theory as well as on the base of the situation of our country. Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper obtained the following conclusions:Firstly, the driving forces of the urbanization come from four aspects, that is, the increasing of the share of industrial goods in residents’ consumption structure, the decreasing of industrial products’transaction costs, the reduction of arable land and the advancement in the degree of scale of agricultural production. On the other side, there are five aspects that block the process of urbanization, that is, more residents’ attentions paid on living houses, a higher level of house prices, the expansion of the urban lands’scale, the reduction of agricultural products’transaction costs and the discrimination on the household registration. Within the driving powers, the most considerable factor is the change of resident consumption structure and the others’ influences are relatively small.Secondly, the factors which can improve the social welfares are the share of industrial goods in residents’ consumption structure, more residents’attentions paid on living houses, the improvement of the living environment in rural areas, the decreasing of industrial products’ transaction costs, the reduction of household price level the advancement in the degree of scale of agricultural production, and technology advancements. Conversely, the increasing of populations, the reduction of arable land, and the expansion of the urban lands’scale can reduce the welfare of the residents.Thirdly, the gaps of actual welfare are slightly less than the differences of the nominal incomes between urban and rural residents. The discrimination on the household registration can increase the urban citizens’welfares while it reduces the migrant workers’and peasants’welfares, and the reduction of the later are far above the increasing the former. At the same time, the increasing effect is becoming weakened and more badly, the decreasing effect of the later gradually becomes enhanced. Compared to urban citizens, migrant workers and peasants are more sensitive to the discrimination on the household registration, and the adjustment by their own weakens the influence of the household register discrimination.Fourthly, according to the year of2011’s level, if the discrimination on the household registration can totally eliminated, the actual urbanization rate will increase by more than twenty percent, and the level of farmers and migrant workers’ welfares can be nearly doubled, but the urban citizens’welfare will reduce by about one quarter.Fifthly, the change of the urban system has little effect on the urbanization level. Urban expansion mode can be affected by the residents’ consumption structure, enterprises’ market forces as well as the industrial and agricultural products transaction costs. Currently the towns’gather forces for enterprises are not strong enough in most areas of China.Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations. By summarizing, this paper fingers out that the urbanization is a systematic project, and when we promote urbanization, we need to consider both the development of urban and rural development as well as the connection between the two. In addition we also need to take into account urban system construction and urban development pattern.During the theoretical research, this paper creatively introduces the hypothesis of the decreasing return to scale of agricultural production and of the limited cultivated land. As a result, it makes the theoretical analysis framework more suitable for the analysis of the conditions in the developing countries such as our country. Furthermore, through the investigation of the logistics transportation patterns in the real world, this paper concludes the new economy model to deal with problem of the production transportation, under which the economic space in the theoretical research is extended from1-dimensional to2-dimensional.Urbanization is a very important and very complex research topic. This paper obtains many meaningful conclusions on this topic. But there are still plenty of conclusions that can be researched and more studies on this subject are needed to be done in the future.更多还原