【作者】 杨朔；

【导师】 谢思全；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 党的十八大以来,城镇化被提到前所未有的高度。在十八大报告中,习近平主席指出,城镇化作为全面建设小康社会的载体,是实现经济发展方式转变的重点；要“坚持走中国特色新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化道路,推动信息化和工业化深度融合、工业化和城镇化良性互动、城镇化和农业现代化相互协调,促进工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同步发展”本文试图从理论上解释在最佳的城市规模基础上城市基础设施的最佳供给问题。首先,本文提出了以城市聚集效应最大化作为城市最佳规模的判定标准；在城市最佳规模基础上,分析了最佳的基础设施供给。其次,尝试建立衡量城市聚集效应的指标体系,由劳动力指数、技术指数、资本指数、收入分配指数、消费水平指数等来表征城市聚集效应,将以往单纯的使用经济指标,甚至工业生产指标衡量城市聚集效应的方法加以扩大,使衡量指标更加全面、合理。第三,在研究城市最佳规模基础之上,将城市规模与基础设施供给问题联系起来,重点分析在最佳城市规模上,多大体量的城市基础设施供给是最佳的供给量。第四,本文选取了环渤海地区30个城市作为研究对象,使文章更加具有实践意义和研究价值。中国地方政府融资平台(以下亦称“融资平台”或“平台”)是我国城市建设进程中投融资体制改革的产物。1988年,国务院发布《关于投资管理体制的近期改革方案》,国家成立六大专业投资公司,各省也相继组建了一批建设投资公司。在地方政府缺乏替代性的融资渠道,中国转移支付制度尚不完善背景下,地方政府融资平台缓解了地方财政提供地方公共服务的压力,极大地推动了我国的城市化进程和地方经济发展。尽管融资平台在地方经济建设,以及应对2008年金融危机方面,发挥了重大作用。但是一些地方的融资平台却存在着管理不规范、资本金不足和过度负债等诸多问题,潜在风险不容忽视。越来越多的学者专家注意到了其中所暴露的宏观与金融风险,尤其是政府隐性负债持续性增大,可能引发的政府信用透支,货币投放规模控制失灵,债务偿还风险放大等等。城镇化是经济社会发展的客观趋势。当前和今后相当长一段时间,我国城镇化处于快速发展阶段,由此产生的投资与消费需求巨大。融资平台在解决我国城市化进程中面临的资金瓶颈问题上还将继续发挥重要作用。但是,在实践中,越来越多的专家注意到政府过度负债所暴露的财政与金融风险。本论文试图通过合理财政赤字和金融风险的预警设计,准确量化风险,并通过制度安排降低或排除融资平台的隐性风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 The urbanization is raised to an unprecedented height since the Eighteenth Congress of the Communist Party of China. In the Eighteenth Chinese Communist Party Congress report, the President Xi Jinping pointed out that urbanization is the emphasis to achieve the shift of economic development mode as a carrier for building a moderately prosperous society;"We shold adhere to the road of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization of Chinese characteristics to promote the integration of informatization and industrialization, the benign interaction of industrialization, and the coordination of urbanization and agricultural modernization,to promote the simultaneous development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization ".This paper attempts to explain the problem of optimal supply of city infrastructure based on the optimal city size in theory. Firstly, the paper puts forward the city agglomeration effect maximization as the criterion of optimal city size,and analysis the best supply of infrastructure in the city based on the of the optimal scale. Secondly, trying to establish the index system to measure the city agglomeration effect, This paper characterize the urban agglomeration effect by the labor force index, technique index, capital index, income distribution index and consumption level index.Instead of using the simple economic indicators, or even industrial production indicators, the paper expands method to measure the city agglomeration effect, to make the measure more comprehensive, reasonable.Thirdly, On the basis of studying of the optimal city size, the paper makes the connection between the city scale and infrastructure supply, and focus on the analysis of the best urban infrastructure supply which adapt to the optimal city size.Fourthly, the paper selects thirty cities of annulus Bohai sea area as the research object, to make the study has more practical significance and research value.Chinese local government financing platform (hereinafter also known as the "financing platform" or "platform") is the reform product of investment and financing system in the process of China’s urban construction.In1988, the State Council of China issued "the recent reform program on the investment management system", and established six national professional investment company.The local provinces also have set up a group of construction investment company. For lacking of alternative financing channels to local governments and having not perfect transfer payment system, local government financing platform relieves the local govement finance pressure o provide local public services, which greatly promoted the Chinese city development and local economic development.Although the financing platform played a significant role in construction of the local economic construction, as well as deal with the financial crisis in2008year, some local financing platform have many problems, sunch as having not standard management, lacking of capital, excessive debt and many other issues.These issues cause potential risks that can not be ignored. More and more scholars and experts pay attention to the macroeconomic and financial risks, especially the implicit government liabilities increased continuously, Which may lead to overdraft of credit government, failure to control of the money supply scale, amplification of debt repayment risk etc.Urbanization is the objective trend of the economic and social development.At present and for quite a long time, China’s urbanization is in the stage of rapid development, which brings huge demand of investment and consumption therefrom.Financing platform will continue to play an important role to solve the capital bottlenecks problem faced in in the process of urbanization in our country for local government. In practice, fiscal and financial risks by more and more experts noted that excessive government debt exposure.However, in practice, more and more experts noted the exposed fiscal and financial risks of excessive government debt. This paper attempts to quantify the risk accurately by reasonable designing of early warning for fiscal deficit and financial risks, and to reduce or eliminate the hidden risks of financing platform by institutional arrangements.更多还原