【作者】 沈扬扬；

【导师】 陈宗胜；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 本文系统研究了经济增长与差别扩大中的中国农村贫困问题。分析过程分为宏观认识、经验测度与政策研究三个部分，层层递进的脉络下兼有对整体及分类农户的并列式研究。在方法上，本文主要选用了非参数核密度估计法、亲贫困判定法、Shapley分解、弹性测算等。基本结论包括：农村收入增长有利于减贫，但收入差别扩大会抑制减贫；近一阶段我国农村减贫步伐放缓，主要在于“增长”因子的减贫效应有所降低，“差距”因子的恶贫效应有所提高。在宏观认知部分，本文发现我国贫困问题日趋复杂，表现为以下特征：相对贫困和绝对贫困现象并存、贫困人口普遍分布与地域集中分布现象并存、不同类别农户贫困状况之间差异化明显等。本文借用非参数核密度方法，绘制了农村最低收入户的绝对和相对收入分布图，详细分析了上世纪80年代以来中国农村贫困变动状况。研究发现：在农村绝对贫困逐步得到缓解（但最贫困人口数量似有所上升）的同时，相对贫困状况日趋恶化；贫困人口持续减少的“表象”，主要源于贫困线绝对值长期保持不变，或其增幅阶段性放缓的特征。在经验测度部分，第一，研究了中国农村经济增长的亲贫困性质。结果表明：尽管农村居民整体收入呈现增长势头，但只有1995-2002年农村经济增长呈现严格的亲贫困性态，其它时期的增长仅有助于降低整体贫困程度。按农户类型划分后的规律表现为：增长对务工农户的亲贫性质最强，对务农农户的亲贫性质最弱；对高学历农户的惠贫效果更高，对低学历农户尤其是文盲家户的惠贫效果最小；更有利于东部地区贫困户提高收入，而西部地区增长的亲贫效果则不明显；更有助于山区和丘陵地区贫困户摆脱贫困，而不利于山区减少贫困。第二，基于Shapley值方法测度增长和收入差别对减贫的贡献。并发现增长在农村减贫中起到了很大的正向效应，不断扩大的收入差别则削弱了这种效应。从时段上看，20世纪九十年代中后期农村减贫趋势放缓。按农户类型看，增长对外出务工农户、高学历农户的减贫效应更大，?对务农农户和文盲农户效应较弱；如果进一步分析区位因素，增长是山区、平原地貌，以及东、西部经济区域农户减贫的主动力，对丘陵或者中部地区而言，增长和差距呈现出稳定的惠贫和益贫功效，且前者力量大于后者。第三，弹性测算研究表明：1.改革开放初期，适度的收入分化利于农户贫困缓解；近期增长和差距变动对贫困的作用程度均在增强，且后者更高。2.分类型农户测算结果显示：务农农户、文化程度较低农户、西部欠发达地区农户、山区地区农户的贫困度始终对增长或差距变动最为敏感，而务工农户、高学历农户、东部及平原农户所受影响较小。3.组间极化程度的适度提高不会恶化组间贫困状况，尽管政策层面很少关注组内收入极化现象，但縮小组内收入极化程度的减贫效果明显。4.现阶段贫困的增长弹性明显高于贫困的不平等弹性，重视控制组内不平等程度也是当务之急。政策研究方面，本文就政府补贴及价格调整对各组农户贫困影响做了模拟分析，研究发现：定额补贴会显著降低收入水平较低组别农户的贫困水平，家庭经营费用、生产性固定资产、食品价格及居住费用的提升不利于贫困缓解。相应的政策建议有：第一，加大对极端贫困人口的扶助力度，消除绝对贫困；第二，设置“相对贫困线”，缓解相对贫困；第三，构建多维指标，提高贫困人口的可行发展能力；第四，构建幵发式扶贫、社会救助及社会保护并行的贫困救助体系；第五，加强对特定类别农户，尤其是收入水平较低组别农户的定额补贴；第六，控制相关产品价格的过快上涨。本研究的创新工作体现在：第一，本文以全新视角审视经典问题，发现相对贫困现象是当今农村贫困领域更为重要的问题。随着经济发展，我国部分穷困人口收入增长显著落后于平均水平，故除了绝对贫困，相对贫困正成为农村面临的主要问题。第二，本文关注增长的惠贫质量，通过研究亲贫困增长率及亲贫困判定曲线，发现并不是所有时期的增长均严格有利于穷人，新世纪以来的发展模式更为“亲富”。第三，考虑到同等程度增长对各组农户的惠贫性质不同，在分类基础上本文发现外出务工行为、高学历、居住在经济发达地区（东部及平原地区）更有利于农户脱贫，而单纯从事务农活动、低学历、居住在西部或山区等经济欠发达地区则不会显著减少农户组内贫困程度。第四，利用Aararand Duclos(2007)的政策模拟方法，本文发现对务农农户、低学历以及山区、西部区域农户提供定额补助的减贫成效更高，家庭经营费用、生产性固定资产和食品价格的变动会更为显著的影响到收入水平较高农户组。第i，本文勾画出社会救助、社会保护以及幵发式扶贫"三驾马车”并行的反贫困政策体系，并提出由村级瞄准向家庭瞄准单位转变构想；第六，技术上，选用了具有较强实用性的Ungrouping方法处理宏观分组数据，更利于有效使用NBS分组数据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The itiesis systematically studied rural poverty issues in China in the perspectiveof the growth and inequality. It’s divided into three parts: macroscopic description,empirical measurements and policy research. It proceeded by logic steps with carefulconsideration on types of rural households. With regards to methodology, this thesisadopted Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimaiton method, Pro-poor judgmentmethod, Shapley Decomposition method and Elasticity calculation. The mainfindings are rural income growth helps reduce poverty while the widening incomegap will restrain poverty reduction; the poverty reduction rate slows down recently,owing to the decreasing poverty reduction effect of "Growth" factor and the oppositeeffect of "Inequality" factor.In the macroscopic descirption part’, its found that China’s poverty issue iscomplicated with following characteirstics. Relative poverty and absolute povertycoexist, widely and concentrated distirbution of poverty population coexists, andthere are signiifcant differences on poverty status among different types of householdetc. Using Non-parametric Kernel Density method, this paper presented graphs onabsolute and relative income distirbution of the lowest income of rural households,and made a detailed analysis on rural poverty in China since the80’s of the lastcentury to obtain an objective and accurate understanding of the development andtrend of rural poverty. It’s been revealed that while the absolute poverty has beenrelieved gradually (but the poorest populaiton seems to be irsing), relative poverty isgetting worse; the characteristic of the relief of absolute poverty mainly attirbutes tothe measurement standard, that is，the poverty line stays unchanged or at least at aslowdown speed; it’s just because of the decline of the relative poverty line that keeps*poverty incidence going down step by step.In the empirical measurement part, ifrst，pro-poor measurement for the economicgrowth in rural China was implemented. The results show that, although the overallincome of rural residents takes on a growing trend, only the period of1995-2002witnessed a strict pro-poor growth feature while other years only see an effect on the overall reduction of poverty level. When we look into the types of rural households,the "Growth" has a strongest pro-poor feature on those working on non-farmingactivities, while weakest on those working on farming; it beneifts the poor better ifthe farmers have a higher education level, and less on those with lower educationlevel, especially those illiteracies; it’s more conducive to the east to increase incomebut the effects of pro-poor growth in the west region is not obvious; it is more helpfulfor the poor in the mountainous and hilly areas to get out of poverty, but not as sameas conducive to reducing poverty in the plain area.Second, we calculated the contirbution to poverty reduction of the "Growth" and"Inequality" based on the Shapley Decomposition method. It turned out thateconomic growth has played a positive effect in poverty reduction while theenlargement of income gap drags down the effect. By peirods, it’s shown China’srural poverty reduction has slowed down in the late90’s last century. By types offarmers,"Growth" beneifts more to those who are migrant workers and moreeducated farmers, less to those involved in farming activities and even illiteracyfarmers."Growth" is the main force for the mountains and plains farmers to reducewithin-group poverty, while the "Inequality" factor plays a large negative role inpovetry reduction for farmers in hilly area. In the eastern region, the two factors exertmore or less an equal effect on the within-group poverty reduction. Poverty reductionin the central region mainly depends on growth effect, and for farmers in the West,who hold weak capacities to earn growing incomes, the effects of "Inequality" factorbecome larger than that of "Growth" in some years, which leads to the irse of thewithin-group poverty level.Third, the Elasticity calculation result shows that,(1) at the beginning of reformand opening up, a modest income differentiation helps poverty alleviation, while inrecent years,"Growth" and "Inequality" are both playing enhancing roles on povertywith a larger effect rfom the "Inequality" factor;(2) calculation results by householdstypes show, the poverty level of those who are farming households, low educated, inless-developed West areas, and in mountainous area, is always most sensitive to thechange of "Growth" and "Inequality", while migrant households, high educatedfarmers, farmers in eastern developed areas and in plain areas are less affected;(3) the moderate improvement of the extreme level among the groups will not result inpoverty deteiroration; although the policy rarely highlights the differentiationphenomenon among the groups, shirnking the extreme extent among these groupsplays an important role in poverty reduction;(4) the elasticity of the "Growth" issigniifcantly higher than that of "Inequality", thus emphasis on controlling thewithin-group "Inequality" is also pressing.In the Policy research part, it made policy simulation analysis to see how thegovernment subsidies and price adjustment affect poverty situations of all groups.The result shows, ifx-level subsidies will signiifcantly reduce the poverty level of thepoor in the lower percentile, and the incre^e of family operation fees，productiveifxed assets, food prices and the residence fees are not conductive on povertyreduciton. Corresponding solutions are，(1) strengthening the support system for thepoor in lowest percentile to eliminate absolute poverty;(2) setting "relative povertyline" to ease relative poverty;(3) building multi-index evaluation and enhance thecapacities of the poor;(4) construcitng a poverty support system with a combinationof poverty alleviation through development, social assistance and social protection;(5)improving the fix-level subsidies to certain groups, speciifcally the poor in lowpercentiles;(6) keeping the price of relevant product under control.The innovative points of this study can be summairzed as follows. First itrevisited an old issue rfom a new sight view，uncovered the relative poverty a moreessential problem. Along with economic development, part of the poor population inChina who’s income growth lagged signiifcantly behind the average. So，besides theabsolute poverty problem, the relative poverty is now the main problem the ruralChina facing by. Second, by calculating pro-poor growth rate and drawing the judgingcurve，we investigate the quality of the economic growth, and ifnd that not all thepeirods of growth are strictly pro-poor. The model of development in the new century0is more "pro-rich". Third, taking into account the same degree of growth for*eachgroup of farmers have different pro-poor nature, based on the classiifcation of farmers,we ifnd that off-farm employment activity, the high-education, living in the westernregion or the plain areas are more conducive to the farmers out of poverty. However,pure faming, low education, living in the western region or the mountain areas will not significantly reduce the level of poverty in the farmers group.Fourth, adopting thepolicy simulation method proposed by Araar and Duclos (2007)，we found that thefixed subsidy has higher effectiveness of poverty reduction effects for the purefarmers, the low education attainment, and the famers who live in the western regionor mountain areas. Fitfh, we suggest to improve the targeting accuracy of povertygroup, and at the same itme, we suggest to build up a support system including threeparts, which are development-oirented poverty alleviation program, social assistancesystem and social protection system. Last but not least, technically, it employed theUngrouping method to deal with the macro grouped data rfom the NBS，which ishelpful for better accuracy.更多还原