【作者】 张绚；

【导师】 白志鹏；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 环境科学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的高速发展,经济发达地区颗粒物(PM₁₀)和细颗粒物（PM2.5）污染日趋严重,城市光化学烟雾及区域灰霾现象频繁发生,典型城市群区域复合型污染特征明显。2009年11月26日在哥本哈根气候变化大会上,国务院总理温家宝正式对外宣布我国控制温室气体排放的行动目标,到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%45%。我国许多城市由于经济发展模式和能源结构的差异,呈现煤烟、机动车尾气以及开放源复合型污染并存的态势,现在又同时面临着温室气体减排压力。我国富煤缺油少气的能源资源特点决定了我国以煤为主的能源结构在未来几十年内不会发生根本性的改变,由此造成的严重环境污染和能源利用率低下等多方面问题,成为我国目前亟待解决的问题。中国经济资源有限且空气污染问题严重,自身经济需保持稳定快速增长且国际温室气体减排压力巨大,因此需要研究颗粒物和温室气体的协同减排关系,实施气候友好型空气颗粒物削减战略。本研究旨在实施城市空气颗粒物削减政策措施的同时,减少温室气体排放,实现气候友好。我国十二五经济社会处于快速发展阶段,同时面临着温室气体减排和大气污染物控制的双重挑战。电力行业是国民经济发展和节能减排的重点行业,煤炭是中国的能源消费的主体。本文对发达国家温室气体减排及大气颗粒物减排政策进行了对比,根据重点区域天津的社会经济现状及环境现状,使用成本效益分析方法,识别颗粒物及温室气体的减排技术及情景,对15个治理措施的成本费用和节能减排潜力进行分析评估。基于协同减排成本效益分析,本研究通过对结果的政策排序和优化,提出了以最低成本同时实现空气质量改善和温室气体减排为目标的协同减排方案。本研究目标如下：在国家政策层面,针对国家节能减排法律法规修改兼顾国家部委应对气候变化、控制空气污染及促进工业转型的行业节能减排技术需求,通过核算可变运行维护成本及将固定成本年均花计算了火电行业单项节能减排技术或技术集合的减排成本,通过技术的减排效率及装备的综合能源消费量核算了技术的年潜力并排序；在地方政策层面,本文为重点节能减排区域地方政府及重点企业筛选优秀节能减排技术,为地方政府制定行业节能减排技术政策提供减排技术方案；在企业和公众层面,为重点行业企业筛选最具成本有效性的节能减排技术。本文中的典型城市选取天津,重点行业选择火电行业。首先,本文分析了2010年天津火电行业颗粒物及温室气体排放现状,并预估了2015年天津火电行业颗粒物及温室气体的排放情况,选取了了“十二五”天津市颗粒物减排目标和温室气体减排目标。第二,本文构建了自底向上的火电行业控制技术成本效益分析模型——火电行业节能减排成本优化模型。第三,筛选出火电行业中各典型机组的15项颗粒物减排技术、13项温室气体减排技术、10项颗粒物温室气体协同减排技术的可选择控制技术及措施清单。第四,设计天津市颗粒物和温室气体减排的4个控制情景：经济如常情景（BAU）、颗粒物减排情景（LAP）、温室气体减排情景（GHG）及区域协同减排情景（IES）。基于成本效益分析,本研究通过文献调研及专家咨询等方式收集了排放清单、排放因子、技术去除效率、初期投资、运行成本等数据。本文首先在颗粒物减排情景（LAP）中,对火电行业15项颗粒物减排技术进行了年减排潜力及年减排成本进行核算,得出各减排技术的单位颗粒物减排成本清单并进行排序,依据政策排序得出了天津市火电行业颗粒物减排政策建议。同样,在温室气体减排情景（GHG）中对13项温室气体减排技术进行了成本效益分析,得出其单位温室气体减排成本清单并进行排序,并依据政策排序得出了天津市火电行业颗粒物减排政策建议。最后,在区域协同减排情景（IES）中分析了10项温室气体减排技术的颗粒物减排潜力及减排成本,’得出了协同减排单位成本排序。通过成本效益分析及政策排序,研究结果表明：首先在火电行业颗粒物减排方面,最具成本有效性的技术是对现有300MW机组改建电袋复合式除尘器。其次,在温室气体减排方面,对已有电厂300MW机组加装CCS-MEA设备是最经济的选择。在确保安全的基础上,对于新建电厂最优温室气体减排政策建议是1000MW核电,与之相对单位减排成本最高的政策是太阳能光伏发电技术。在协同成本效益分析的基础上,得出了以下结论：在颗粒物减排技术方面,在现有机组上加装烟气脱硫装置是最具协同减排成本有效性的技术；在温室气体减排技术方面；用核电厂替代火电机组是最具协同成本有效性的技术;如考虑区域安全问题则IGCC电厂更适合天津市,为重点区域地方政府及企业提供了最具经济性的技术选择。区域协同减排情景（IES）依次提出以下政策建议：关闭第一热电厂的50MW机组、在陈塘热电厂300MW机组上加装温室气体吸收装置及袋式除尘器、新建250MW IGCC电厂。在区域协同减排情景下,十二五颗粒物总减排潜力为35930.73吨（减排48%）,温室气体总减排潜力为2809.54万吨（减排36.7%）,相应总成本为96.9亿元人民币,可以最低成本实现颗粒物减排及温室气体减排的双重减排目标,为地方政府执行国家政策提供经济有效的十二五节能减排路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Like many countries, China is trying to balance environmental and global climate change concerns against economic growth. Previous government policies to improve air quality in Tianjin have achieved remarkable outcomes. However, many measures have reached their limits of effectiveness due to the rapidly economic development in China. Recognition of these serious challenges led to the formal announcement of action reduction target control that cut carbon emission40%-45%per unit in GDP by2020in comparison with that of2005by Premier Wen Jiabao in2009. In addition to aggressively pursuing improved air quality, China has joined international efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) by attending the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Durban, South Africa Nov.28,2011.More recently, the Chinese government announced a GHG reduction target of cutting17%CO2and16%energy consumption per unit GDP, increasing3.1%,from8.3%to11.4%, non-fossil energy consumption, and reducing total emissions of major pollutants from8%to10%by2015in The General Plan of Save Energy and Reduce Emission in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. The consensus-building process will be based on a mitigation potential study conducted by key research institutions that will set out three mitigation scenario options for2015. This co-benefits analysis is based on the current price of GDP in Tianjin in2010as the base year and2015as the target year.For China, implementing integrated measures that address both Local Air Pollutant (LAP) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) is essential to achieving necessary air pollution reductions and preparing for future agreements on climate change. Integrated strategies have been implemented worldwide as cost-benefit mechanisms to reduce LAP and GHG which are co-generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. Previous co-benefit studies have shown that GHG mitigation policies have had a positive effect on regional air quality (Rypdal et al.,2007; Williams,2007; Vuuren et al.,2006), though relatively few studies available document how air quality management affects GHG emissions (Xu and Masui,2009) and how tackling both problems could be optimized. Based on cost effectiveness, this study develops an alternative scenario for emission reduction measures through optimization in order to achieve both air quality improvements and GHG reduction targets at a minimum cost.Based on the status quo of PM10and CO2emission in2010and the presupposed situation in2015, this study assesses the co-benefits of the Local Air Particulate Matter (LAP) reduction plan and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) control plan in coal-fired power industry in Tianjin, China. This co-benefit analysis used the Ambient Least Cost Model (ALC) to estimate PM10and CO2emission reduction and cost, then creating PM10and CO2control technologies inventory. Through ordering the technologies we can find that retrofit elect-baghouse precipitator in300MW units is most cost-benefit in PM10emission reduction in thermal power plant. For CO2emission reduction, CCS-MEA is the most effective option for the existing plant. The correlation of cost-benefit analysis indicated that the Nuclear Power plant was the most cost effective option to reduce PM10and CO2emissions at the same time, but IGCC is a safer choice for Tianjin. The integrated environmental strategy (IES) scenario make it possible to reduce28,095,386t (36.7%) of CO2and35,930.73t (48%) of PM10emissions and cost9.69billion Yuan from2010to2015, which beyond both suggested targets (ST) of PM10and CO2during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.更多还原