【作者】 王旺平；

【导师】 郝寿义；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 区域经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 住房作为人类生存与生活的场所,对人类的生产生活起着非常重要的作用。住房的重要性使得住房成为了人们生活中最为重要的需求之一,因此,拥有合适的住房也就成了大多数人为之奋斗的目标。住房作为一种产品,具有商品属性,人们一般可以通过市场来满足自己的住房需求。但是住房同时又具有价格昂贵性、外部性等特殊属性,使得社会上并不是每一个人都能在房价上涨时通过市场来解决自身的住房问题。因此,为了限制住房价格,实现住有所居,大部分国家都会通过住房政策来对住房市场进行干预,以解决城镇住房问题。自从1998年底我国实行住房货币化改革以来,我国城镇住房价格从2003年起开始经历了快速增长的过程,房价的飙升严重影响了中低收入阶层住房问题的解决。为了限制房价的快速上涨,中央政府从2003年起开始实施了一系列的房地产宏观调控政策,以防止房价快速上涨而产生的城镇住房问题。然而,房价还是在调控中陷入了越调越涨,越涨越调的政策陷阱当中,已经严重超出了大多数人的支付能力。因此,如何控制房价,解决城镇中低收入阶层住房难的问题一直困扰着政府部门。本文从住房商品市场与公共住房市场两个角度把政策分为经济政策与公共政策来对我国住房政策体系进行研究,以便能够从整体上尝试提出解决当前我国房价居高不下的难题,并在此基础上提出了解决好城镇住房问题的政策建议。因此本文主要从房价与政策的关系入手,分析了当前我国城镇住房政策对房价影响的有效性以及建立与完善住房政策体系后住房政策对住房价格的影响。根据上面的分析,本文分六章对我国城镇住房政策体系进行研究。第一章是绪论,主要从当前我国城镇住房价格现状出发,分析当前我国存在高房价事实,并分析了高房价所产生的住房问题,以此引出本文研究的意义。在此基础上从政策的角度,分析了国内外对住房政策与政策体系的研究现状,从中发现当前我国住房政策体系存在的问题,并提出研究的方法、思路以及本文拟可能的创新点。第二章则是对住房的属性、住房政策体系内容、政策分析方法等问题进行分析。住房的特征决定了它的特殊性,由此导致了住房属性的复杂性,住房属性的复杂性决定了住房市场结构也具有复杂性。因此,住房政策应该是包括不同市场结构的政策集合,这些政策集合体组成了住房政策体系。在此基础上,对政策分析的方法进行了归纳整理,以便为后面提供分析的基础。第三章则从理论的角度对住房政策体系的理论进行分析。住房政策体系作为政府政策体系的一个重要组成部分,在促进国民经济增长、维护社会公平公正等方面具有非常重要的作用。因此,本章从经济增长理论、政府干预理论、公平效率理论、公共产品理论、系统动力学理论对住房政策体系的理论基础进行了分析。并在对住房市场供给原理和政府与市场组合关系的分析基础上对存流量模型进行修正,建立了分析住房政策体系的理论模型,最后运用四象限理论模型对住房政策体系当中的经济政策与公共政策对房价影响的作用机理进行了分析。第四章是实证部分,主要从实证的角度分析了我国当前住房政策对住房价格影响的有效性。本章先对我国住房制度改革历程进行了分析,在此基础上对当前我国住房市场上主要的政策进行了简要介绍,接着运用博弈论的方法对住房政策有效性的微观机理进行了分析,并根据住房政策体系的理论模型与作用机理建立面板数据模型,在分析房价上涨合理性的基础上,从单个政策和组合政策角度对住房政策对房价的影响进行了实证研究。研究表明单个住房政策对住房价格缺乏解释能力,而不同的组合政策虽然在一定程度上能解释住房价格,但是对住房价格的解释能力还不够,由此可以判断出当前我国的住房政策对住房价格的影响缺乏有效性。第五章是在前面分析的基础上,提出了建立与完善我国城镇住房政策体系的思路,构建了住房政策体系的框架,并以天津市为例运用系统动力学的方法对政策有效性进行了仿真模拟分析。研究表明,随着国民经济的发展,在没有政策干预的情况下,天津市的房价会因经济增长而持续上涨,但在增加保有成本与扩大租赁在市场中比例的情况下,房价上涨趋势会减缓；且在住房公共政策中,土地、补贴、租赁等政策对住房价格也具有一定的抑制作用,而在住房经济政策与公共政策的共同作用下,天津市的住房价格在未来会呈现一种平缓上升的趋势。由此说明建立与完善当前我国的住房政策体系,对稳定住房价格与维护住房市场的公平具有非常重要的作用。第六章是结论部分,主要是对本文的结论做一个简单总结,并从产权、买卖租赁、保有、公共住房等几个关键环节提出了完善我国当前住房政策的政策建议,并在最后提出了未来的研究方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Housing serves as the place of human survival and production plays a very important role in human. The important of Housing makes it becoming one of the important requirements in people’s lives. So, the most people’s goals are to have a house. Housing as a product first show the nature of goods that people can buy it through market. However, due to the particularity of housing such as expensive, externality, which makes not everyone can solve their housing problem through the market, especially the Middle and Low income people. In order to resolve the housing problem, most country carries out the policy of housing to help the people who entrap in low income. For example in our country, the Chinese first carry out the monetization of housing policy from1998. But, along with the development of housing marketization, the house price has experience a rapid growth from2003. The price grow has influent the middle and low income to resolve their housing problem. So the governmengt began to intervent the house market from2003, which to control the housing price. But the housing prices always show a rapid growth under intervence, it has beyond the middle and low income pay ability. This performance of housing price puzzled the government forward.This essay analysis our hosing policy system from commodity and public market, and divide the system into economic policy and public policy. We hope to resolve the housing price from whole and propose the policy suggestion about the problem of housing. So, this paper mainly analysis the relationship between housing price and policy, and analysis the effectiveness of housing policy and the effluence of housing policy after build and perfect the housing policy system.Based on this, this essay can divid into six sections to analysis the housing system.The first chapter is introduction, which start with the house price of china to analysis the fact that housing price is high in town, though we analyze the house problem. This peper analysiz the research values after that. Based on this policy angle, we analysis the abroad and home housing policy and housing policy system, we can get what problem our housing policy has existent. The next is to analysis the analysis method, thinking and the possible innovation.The second chapter is to analysis the house nature, the concept, goal, content of housing policy system. Then, we conclude the theory method of policy to prepare for next analysis.The third chapter is to analysize the housing policy system from the theory angle. The housing policy system as a part of government policy system, which has a important role in prompting the growth of economic, maintant social fainess and so on. So, this chapter from the theory of economic growth, government intervation, equity and efficency public goods and system dynamic to analysiz the system of housing policy theory. And then, we construct a model from stock and flow method, after that we use four quadrant to anlysis the economic policy and public policy mechanism of action.The forth chapter is empirical for our housing policy effectiveness. This chapter first analysis the reform of Chinese housing policy, then we analysis the main housing polices in our town and on the basis of the third chapter to build a panal data model, which we can analysis the effectiveness of signle policy and group polices. The result show that signle policy lack of interpret ablity on housing price, but the group policy can example the housing price to some extent. So, there has something to think the housing policy system as a whole.The fifth chapter is to analysis the method of build and perfect policy system, and we construct the framework of policy system, then we use system dynamic method to nanalysize the effectiveness of the framework in Tianjin. The result show that the housing price will continue growth under the growth of economic, but it will slow down after we add the fator of ownership cost, and the public policy of land, subsidy, rent have the inhibitional effect on housing price. So, under the housing economic policy and public policy, the housing price will show a gentle growth, which we get that it is very important to build and perfect the housing system.The finally chapter is conclusion. In this chapter, our object is to make a simple conclusion and to offer a proposal on how to build and construct the housing policy system. In the last, we come up with the research oriention in the future.更多还原