【作者】 李春梅；

【导师】 黄兆基；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 自改革开放以来,我国的加工贸易取得蓬勃发展,体现出对国际制造业部分工序环节的强大吸引力。专业化分工能提高生产效率和生产规模。随着科技的不断进步,尤其是运输、通讯成本的不断下降,产品生产环节的分工也日益细化,各环节的要素配置比例细分取代了整体产品的要素特征。比如产品的研发,设计、营销环节为知识资本密集型,而中间品的组装,集成往往是劳动密集型的。在跨国企业通过全球配置生产环节降低成本,提高竞争力的同时,更细化的分工模式也进一步突显了全球不同区域的要素禀赋差异。作为全球非熟练劳动力禀赋相对最丰富的国家之一,中国在参与产品分工过程中实现了潜在优势向实际优势的转变。加工贸易出口额从1981年的11.3亿美元增长到2010年的7403.3亿美元,成为世界生产基地。承接大规模的国际产品内分工引致的劳动力需求高度开发了我国非熟练劳动力资源。同时,我国二元经济结构特征使我国城市部门的劳动力禀赋变化具有动态特征。农村剩余劳动力转移的不同阶段,其与产品内分工的相互关系将发生变化。在“刘易斯拐点”之前,农村部门沉积的大量剩余劳动力向城市部门转移时,城市工业经济发展面临着无限弹性的非熟练劳动力供给。此时,承接产品内分工规模变化引起的劳动力需求变化决定了次级劳动力市场就业的均衡位置。这是本文四五章的逻辑分析背景。当农村劳动力转移临近“刘易斯拐点”或至少城市部门可获得的非熟练劳动力不再具备无限供给特征时,现代制造部门的对外禀赋优势将产生变化,从而制约产品内分工承接的规模。本文第六章对这种“反向作用”进行了实证。本文以产品内分工和二元劳动力市场的动态变化为视角,讨论了产品内分与二元劳动力市场转变过程中的互动影响。第一、二章分别为研究背景和相关文献综述。第三章建立了非熟练劳动力市场需求、供给以及制度约束下的分析框架。第一节使用统计数据阐述了二元劳动力市场农村劳动力的转移过程和转移阶段。讨论了当前我国农村劳动力转移是否达到了“刘易斯”转折点,并列举了农村剩余劳动力进一步转移存在的制度约束；第二节分析了以FDI为代表的国际需求对农村劳动力转移过程的速度和规模的影响,加工贸易出口的变化成为我国经济增长的风向标,其变化趋势先行影响我国的发展速度,从而以乘数方式影响农业剩余劳动力转移的规模；第三节为开放经济下,二元经济结构中农村剩余劳动力在无制度约束和制度约束下的转移模式及其对非熟练劳动力市场影响的均衡分析。短期内,均衡结果为更高的收入水平和就业,但长期内,会引起企业退出或选择偏向技术密集型发展模式,将导致未来大规模的非熟练劳动力失业；第四节对分析框架进行经验验证。第四章对我国参与产品内分工的规模及其背景下的出口就业效应进行了估计。前三节分别使用VSS比率、BEC中间产品比率和加工贸易比例指标对我国承接产品内分工的规模及发展趋势进行检验：VSS比率考虑了产业间的完全消耗,对出口品中包含的进口成分衡量最为准确；BEC方法从动态角度勾勒出国外进口投入在我国总产出中所占的比例,补充了VSS比率5年周期变化的细节；加工贸易规模方法进一步对前两种判断进行补充和验证。三种方法一致的结论为：(1)我国承接产品内分工的绝对规模在扩大,但我国经济在进入21世纪前十年之内,几乎所有行业的产品内分工相对规模都出现明显下降趋势；(2)2005年,每单位办公、会计和计算机设备出口中,国外的零部件和半成品占74%,每单位广播、电视和通信设备出口中,国外的零部件和半成品占58%,中国高科技产品出口规模的扩张的确存在较高比例的统计假象,中国独立生产并出口高科技产品的能力尚未形成。运用OECD非竞争性投入产出表对出口带动就业进行估计结果显示,在扣除产品内分工背景下生产中的国外投入品后,1995年,2000年和2005年我国出口产生的就业量为1.3亿,1.4亿和2.3亿,净出口引起的就业为0.27亿、0.4亿和0.43亿,我国的贸易结构仍然为劳动力净输出型。若不考虑完全消耗中的国外中间品投入,将引起引致就业效应的高估,以2000年计,出口带动的就业量将高估19.9%,净出口高估16.9%。第五章使用1989年到2010的宏观数据分析了产品内分工对我国熟练劳动力和非熟练劳动力相对需求的长期影响。协整分析表明,我国非熟练劳动力的相对供给与相对收入长期内显著负相关。二元经济结构转型下的农村剩余劳动力大规模进入城市引起城市劳动力市场上熟练劳动力相对供给不断下降是相对工资显著上升的重要解释因素；我国以加工贸易方式参与的产品内分工提高了非熟练劳动力的相对需求,引起我国相对收入差距下降。承接产品内分工是吸收我国农村转移劳动力的重要渠道。第六章使用2001年后的省际面板数据对非熟练劳动力供给偏紧背景下,省内非熟练劳动力聚集的相对规模和最低工资影响各省加工贸易出口效应进行相对短期估计。第一节使用统计数据描述了非熟练劳动力(农村转移劳动力)2001年后日益增强的全国性供给小于需求的结构和在省际间工作地与户籍地分离规模结构；第二节使用各省最低工资的竞争性调整建立了各省之间劳动力市场的分割和聚集“农民工”的竞争结构。利用2002年至2007年各省最低工资水平与次级劳动力市场规模面板数据进行实证,发现了二者间的正向联系；第三节用2008年29省26个工业行业的面板数据进行实证,发现次级劳动力市场规模越大的地区,在加工贸易出口较高的行业将获得正向的出口优势,对一般贸易占比较高的行业具有负向影响。用最低工资水平替换次级劳动力市场规模,得出最低工资水平与加工贸易出口间的正向联系。即最低工资水平越高的省份,次级劳动力市场规模越大,从而从事加工环节的优势也越大；第四节用2002年至2007年的面板数据估计了29省省内次级劳动力市场规模和最低工资水平对加工贸易出口的影响。次级劳动力市场相对较大的省份或者最低工资水平相对高的省份以加工贸易方式出口了更多的产品。这一正向联系的作用机制主要是由于我国的最低工资水平还处于非常低的阶段,其提升作为一种信号能在劳动力供给偏紧的背景下吸引相对更多的低价劳动力。最后一节利用GMM估计讨论了相关变量的内生性。最后一章为全文的主要结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, China’s processing has developed sharply, reflecting the strong competitiveness in accepting international division of labor in intra-product. Specialization can increase the efficiency and enlarge the scale of production. With the constant progress of science and technology, especially the falling cost of transportation and communication, division of labor in intra-product has become more detailed and the factor input of production has become more important than the whole product. For example, research and development, design and marketing of product belong to the human capital intensive, while the intermediate product assembly tends to be unskilled labor-intensive. When the multinational enterprises allocate the production globally to improve the competitiveness, the factor endowments in different areas of the world become more prominent. As one of the most abundant unskilled Labor endowment of the world, China has shifted the potential advantages into actual advantages through accepting the international division of labor in intra-product. The export value of China’s processing trade increased from＄1.13billion in1981to＄740.33billion in2010, becoming the world’s production base. Undertaking large-scale international division of labor in intra-product highly improved the demand of our unskilled Labor.At the same time, the dual economic structure in China has leaded dynamic changes in the labor market of urban. The rural department has transferred a large number of surplus labors into city departments, greatly changing the city’s unskilled Labor endowments. Once the process in which the rural labors transfer to the town reaches or is close to hitting the Lewis turning point, the city labor market can’t keep unlimited supplying of unskilled labor and the comparative advantage coming from factor endowment will change.This article based on an approach connecting the division of labor in intra-product and the dynamic changes of the dual Labor market, discusses the interactive influence between international division of labor and the dual labor market transformation.The first chapter is the research background and the second chapter is the literature review.The third chapter established a framework which analyzed the influence of supply and demand forces and institutions on city unskilled Labor market. Section one describes the transfer stages of rural surplus labor using statistics. Section two analyses how the international labor demand force including FDI affected the speed and scale of the rural labor transfer process. We finds that the processing trade export changes before the economic growth in China and thus influences the transfer of surplus agricultural labor in a multiplier way. In the third quarter, we compare the different way of rural labor transfer process without institutions limitation and under the institutions limitation. When there are labor transfer limitations, the unskilled labors earn more and have a higher employment in a short run, but massive unemployment would happen for many firms would exit or select bias technology intensive production technology. In the fourth quarter before three discussion, on the basis of open economy and the institutional constraints is established for unskilled Labor market impact of equilibrium analysis. Last section is facts verification.The fourth chapter estimated the size of labor division of intra-product undertaking by our country and its effect on employment. The first three sections used VSS ratio, BEC way of the ratio of the intermediate products and the processing trade proportion respectively. The advantage of VSS ratio is accurate because this way considers the complete consumption between the industries whose exports including imported components; BEC method has data year by year and thus provides a detailed change than VSS ratio way, which changes only in five years. Processing trade scale method can be a kind of further supplement and verification to the first two methods. The common conclusions are as follows:(1) The absolute size of the division of labor in intra-product we undertaking is enlarging, but in the first10years entering21st century, nearly all the industries’relative size of the division of labor in intra-product have shown a significant downward trend;(2) In2005, the per unit office, accounting and computer equipment export, foreign parts and semi-finished products accounted for74%, and per unit of radio, television and communication equipment export, foreign components and semi-finished products accounted for58%. These mean that there is a higher proportion of statistical illusion in China’s high-tech product export expansion and the independent production and export of high-tech products has not yet formed.Using OECD non-competitive input-output tables to estimate export-led employment, after deducting the foreign input, China’s exports drove employment for130million,140million and230million in1995,2000and2005and the net exports drove employment for27million,40million and43million. China’s trade structure is still labor net export type. If we do not consider completely consumed in intermediate inputs abroad, we will overestimate the effects caused by employment. For example, export-led employment will be overestimated by19.9%and net exports by16.9%in2000.The fifth chapter analyzed long-term effects of the division of labor in intra-product on relatively demand for skilled workers and unskilled workers using china’s macro data from1989to2010. Cointegration analysis showed that the relative supply of unskilled Labor in China had obviously negative correlation with relative income in the long term. That large-scale rural surplus labor force entered into the city labor market and lowed the relative supply of skilled workers under the dual economic structure transformation is an important factor to explain a marked increase in the relative wages. By way of processing trade in our country to participate in the division of labor in intra-product increased the relative demand of unskilled Labor and caused a decline in relative income gap of our country. Undertaking the division of labor in intra-product is an important channel to absorb the transfer of rural labor force in China.Using the provincial panel data from2001years after which year the relative supply of unskilled Labor has been tight, the sixth chapter estimated a short-term effect of the relative size of the unskilled labor force gathered in the province and the minimum wage on the provinces’processing trade export. Section one describes the unskilled Labor (the transfer of rural labor force) national supply less than demand structure after2001and the structure of work with the separation of domicile with statistical data. In the second section, we established the Labor market segmentation and gathering Migrant workers competition structure between provinces by a way of competitively adjusting provincial minimum wage level. The empirical with panel data from2002to2007found a positive relation between the secondary labor market scale and the provincial minimum wage.The third section firstly using the panel data of29provinces by26industries in2008found that the greater of the secondary labor market scale in a province, the processing trade exported higher industry would gain positive export advantage, and general trade account highly industry would have a negative impact in that province. Replace secondary labor market size with minimum wage, we then found the minimum wage had a positive relationship with processing trade exports. That is, when a provinces is higher in the minimum wage, it tend to be has a greater secondary labor market scale and has more advantages in the processing trade. The fourth section estimated the secondary labor market scale in the province and the minimum wage effect on the export of processing trade presents with29provinces’ panel data from2002to2007. As a province has a relatively larger secondary labor market or relatively higher minimum wage level, the province will export more products by way of processing trade. The mechanism of action of the positive contact is mainly due to the minimum wage in China is still in the stage of very low, which increase as a signal to attract relatively more low-cost labor under the relatively tight supply background. The fifth section is endogenous variables analysis by GMM.The last chapter is the conclusion of previous chapters.更多还原