【作者】 邓郁凡；

【导师】 戴金平；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 金融学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 当前,全球性的主权债务危机的爆发成为人们关注的交点。从冰岛债务危机到美国债务危机,再到欧洲债务危机,债务危机的爆发开始更加频繁,更加凶猛。很多学者都在质疑当前各国的宏观经济政策,认为正是由于宏观经济政策的不恰当才导致了债务危机的频繁爆发。许多经济学家甚至喊出了“埋葬凯恩斯主义”的说法。宏观经济政策和主权债务危机到底存在怎样的联系,本文从宏观经济政策的视角对债务危机进行了详细的分析和考察。首先本文通过对宏观经济政策的历史争论进行了理论综述,分别从新古典主义和凯恩斯主义的角度分析了各自宏观经济政策的特点以及其对主权债务危机爆发的作用。另外,对于主权债务危机的研究本文也做了相应的综述梳理,研究了各国学者对于历次主权债务危机分析的一些结论,以及他们对于宏观经济政策与主权债务危机的关系的研究结论。其次,历史上全球爆发过多次债务危机,本文分别研究和梳理了拉美债务危机、俄罗斯债务危机、阿根廷债务危机以及当前的欧债危机和美债危机。通过对这些债务危机爆发的历史背景的考察,本文归纳了这些债务危机爆发的原因以及过程。此外,通过从宏观经济政策的角度对历次主权债务危机的爆发进行原因分析发现,各国不合本国实际的经济发展战略、过度的政府支出、不合理的货币政策和汇率政策等是导致主权债务危机爆发的主要的宏观经济政策的原因。接着,本文建立了一个一般均衡的简单分析框架,推导出了政府支出、经常项目、利率变动对于一国债务的影响。在这个分析结论基础上,本文建立了logit模型和probit模型进行了实证检验,发现历史上债务危机的爆发中,这些因素的变动的确能够影响债务危机爆发的概率。最后,针对本文的研究结论,本文提出,一个国家的发展要注重内外均衡,并且凯恩斯主义的宏观经济政策要谨慎使用；并对当前的主权债务危机进行了展望分析,对我国的地方性的政府债务危机提出了相应的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, the global sovereign debt crises become the focus of the world. From the Iceland debt crisis to the debt crisis in the United States, and the European debt crisis, debt crisises become more frequent and ferocious. Many scholars are questioning that the inappropriate macroeconomic policies led to the frequent outbreak of the debt crisis. Many economists even shouted "Bury Keynesian"。 What kind of relationship between macroeconomic policies and the sovereign debt crisis? We studied this question in the debt crisis from the perspective of macroeconomic policy.First, we review the historical debate on macroeconomic policies, and analyzes in new neoclassical and Keynesian perspective to find there characteristics of the macroeconomic policies and their impact on the role of the sovereign debt crisis. In addition, we make a summary of the research in the sovereign debt crisis, analysis some of the conclusions draw by scholars from various countries. Also we find some conclusions of the study of the relationship between macroeconomic policies and the sovereign debt crisis.Second, there is a number of debt crisises in history. This paper research and combing the Latin American debt crisis, the Russian debt crisis, the debt crisis in Argentina and the current European debt crisis,U.S. debt crisis. Through the study of the historical background of the debt crisis, the paper summarizes the reasons and the process for the outbreak of the debt crisis.By examing the macroeconomic policies of the previous sovereign debt crisis, we draw a conclusion that countries in sub-national economic development strategy, excessive government spending, irrational monetary policy and exchange rate policy lead to a sovereign debt crisis.Then, we established a simple framework of a general equilibrium analysis, and deduced that government spending, current account, changes in interest rates will influence the debt of a country. Based on this conclusion we build the logit model and the probit model to make empirical tests, and we found these factors can indeed affect the probability of the debt crisis.Finally, according the conclusions of this study, the paper proposes that the development of a country shoud pay attention to the internal and external balance, and Keynesian macroeconomic policy should be used with caution. Then we make an outlook of the current sovereign debt crisises, and put forward some recommendations of China’s local government’s debt.更多还原