【作者】 苏崇华；

【导师】 朱彤；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 上世纪70年代末80年代初中国实行改革开放政策以来,随着中国经济的持续高速发展,制造品出口在整个中国经济中起着重要作用,而且制造品已由自然资源与劳动力资源密集型初级产品出口为主,逐渐发展为资本与技术密集型制造品出口为主的贸易模式。中国的经验表明,对经济增长起关键作用的不在于出口数量的多少,而在于出口商品的结构。中国大力发展高技术含量制造品出口的贸易政策,保证了中国制造业产出的持续提高及整个经济的长期高速增长。因此,研究中国高科技制造品出口的主要影响因素,对制定促进其出口的政策措施有重要的理论指导意义。影响中国高科技制造品出口的因素既有来自产品自身的因素,也有源自外部的因素。产品内部因素主要涉及出口产品技术含量水平,外部因素涵盖全球生产网络中国内与国外因素的影响。本文对外部因素的研究主要包括以下两方面：一方面,因为加工贸易在中国高科技制造品总贸易中占据特殊重要的地位,且测度双边中间品贸易时,使用贸易增加值可以避免使用总贸易值时出现的重复计算贸易额的问题,因此,本文从分析出口增加值的角度,考查中国高科技制造品出口的主要影响因素。另一方面,作为全球生产网络中一环的中国高科技制造品贸易,不可避免地受到外部环境的冲击,尤其是直接经受国际金融市场的影响。目前,世界上大多数经济体实行浮动汇率制度,汇率变动势必会对中国高科技制造品贸易造成影响。因此,本文从汇率冲击影响的角度,分析这一外部因素对出口的影响。综之,本文分别从出口产品技术含量、出口增加值含量及汇率影响程度三个方面,对影响中国高科技制造品出口的作用机制进行系统分析,并实证检验了内、外部因素对中国高科技制造品出口的影响,在此基础上提出了政策建议。本文的研究包括六个部分。导论包括本文研究的背景、意义、研究思路、结构安排和创新之处。第一章为文献综述,简要介绍了对制造品出口的研究现状及影响因素。第二章为中国高科技制造品出口产品技术含量分析。首先,测算了样本国历年的制造品出口篮子技术含量(TCI)。在此基础上,分别就各国制造品出口商品篮子TCI对产出的作用及各类制造品技术含量(JFD)对出口的作用进行了理论与实证分析,并实证检验了制造品TCI与人均GDP的联系。进一步,对中国高科技制造品的贸易发展状况与技术含量进行分析。第三章从出口增加值的角度,分析了中国高科技中间投入制造品出口的主要影响因素。本文通过对产品出口增加值含量的理论分析,利用各国标准投入产出表及制造品与高科技制造品贸易数据,分别构建了相应的区域双边投入-产出表。进而测算了中国与OECD样本国制造品与高科技制造品双边贸易增加值含量。在此基础上,首先,比较了中国与各样本国制造品与高科技制造品的双边贸易增加值含量。其次,将中国与各样本国制造品与高科技制造品的总贸易余额与增加值余额分别进行比较。再次,在对中国高科技制造品中间投入经济效益分析的基础上,对中国高科技制造品出口增长质量进行分析。第四,通过分别对中国与各样本国制造品与高科技制造品出口增加值比率进行分解,分析了各国相应产品出口增加值含量变化的决定因素。同时,对总出口进行分解,分析影响各国制造品与高科技制造品出口的主要因素。第五,因为生产分担通过中间产品贸易得以体现,因此,本文通过一个修正的引力模型,对高科技制造品零部件贸易的决定因素进行理论分析,并对中国与美国的情况进行实证检验与比较。第四章从汇率对出口价格影响程度的角度,分析了中国高科技制造品出口的主要影响因素。本文使用一个异质企业的国际贸易模型,分析局部均衡状态下汇率调整对出口产品价格的影响。第五章总结了以上各章主要研究结论,并提出了相关政策建议。本文得出下述主要结论：在对中国高科技制造品出口产品技术含量的分析中发现：第一,对中国、日本及美国制造品TCI的发展趋势进行比较中,中国制造品的TCI以比美国及日本更快的速率上升。第二,各国制造品出口商品篮子TCI对制造品产出及各类制造品JFD对制造品出口均存在显著正向的促进作用。第三,制造品TCI与人均GDP有正向联系,而且中国制造品的TCI远超其人均GDP相应的TCI值。第四,中国各类高科技制造品的比较优势与竞争力均获得了较大提升,在中国高科技制造品总出口中,出口份额最大的也是技术含量最高的几类产品。中国高科技制造品出口篮子的技术含量历年来经历了持续快速增长,与发达国家的差距已大大缩小。在对中国中间投入制造品出口主要影响因素的分析中发现：第一,各国双边贸易中,总贸易值均高估了贸易增加值。第二,增加值余额在绝对值上均不同程度地小于总贸易余额。第三,中国高科技制造品中间投入经济效益呈递减趋势,且各类高科技制造品出口增长质量存在较大差异。第四,生产分担而非对各目的国的出口产品组成是决定该中国高科技制造品双边出口增加值含量变化的主要因素。第五,出口国GDP、人均GDP、法律规则、贸易基础设施、贸易协定与亚洲虚拟变量均显著正向促进了中、美两国高科技制造品零部件贸易的增长,而且,汇率也是影响两国中间品贸易的决定因素,贸易国地理距离及各国单位劳动力成本对中国高科技制造品零部件贸易起着显著阻碍作用,而这两个因素对美国的影响则不显著。在对汇率对中国高科技制造品出口价格影响程度的分析中发现：由于集约边际及扩展边际综合作用的结果,汇率对出口产品价格存在不完全传递,传递程度依赖于两种作用的力量大小。在不区分国家、使用全部样本国数据的情况下,汇率对高科技制造品出口价格存在较高程度的传递。考虑到各国进口产品的差异及汇率在样本期内存在的结构突变,对各样本国分别进行检验得出,除美国由于美元持续贬值,致使其汇率存在较高程度的传递外,其余单个样本国均表现出明显的不完全传递。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the implementation of the China’s reform and opening up policy in the early1980s, the manufactured exports have played an important role with china’s economy continuous and rapid development. What’s more, the trade pattern of the manufactured exports has evolved gradually from mainly of the natural resource-intensive and labor-intensive primary products to of capital-intensive and technology-intensive products. China’s experience shows what play a key role in economic growth does not lie in the exports volume, but in the exports structure. It is the trade policy of the vigorous development of the high-tech manufactured exports in China that ensures continuous improvement of the manufacturing output and long-term and rapid growth of the whole economy. Therefore, the study of the main factors affecting China’s high-tech manufactured exports has the important theoretical implications regarding the drawing up policies and measures to promote exports. Factors affecting China’s high-tech manufactured exports not only from the internal, but also from the external. The internal factor mainly related to the technology content of exports, while the external factors come from home and abroad in the global production network. The external factors in this paper mainly include the following two aspects. On the one hand, because processing trade plays a very important role in China’s high-tech manufactures trade, and the use of value added instead of total trade value can avoid of double counting of trade value when measuring bilateral intermediate trade. Therefore, analyzing from value-added export aspect, I examine one of the main external factors affecting China’s high-tech manufactured exports. On the other hand, since China’s high-tech manufactures trade being in the global production networks, which is’inevitably affected by the external enviromnent, In particular, it is directly subjected to the international financial market. At present, most of economies in the world adopt a floating exchange rate system, exchange rate changes is bound to affect China’s high-tech manufactures trade. Therefore, I analyze the effect of the other external factors on exports from exchange rate shocks aspect. In summary, I analyzed systematically the mechanism affecting China’s high-tech manufactured exports from above three aspects respectively, ie. export technology content, value-added exports and the degree of exchange rate pass-through. Moreover the effects of the internal and external factors on China’s high-tech manufactured exports are examined empirically. Finally, On the basis of them, polices and recommendations are propsed.This study consists of six parts. Introduction in this paper includes the background, significance, research ideas, structural arrangements and innovation. The first chapter is the literature review, a brief introduction on the research profile and the influencing factors on manufactured exports. The second chapter is the analysis of the technology content of China’s high-tech manufactured exports. Firstly, I measure the technogy content of each kind of manufactured exports (JFD) and the technology content of the sample countries’s manufactured exports basket (TCI) over the years. On the basis of it, analyze theoretically and empirically the effect of the TCI of each sample country on manufactures outputs and the JFD on manufactures export respectively, and examine empirically the relation of TCI and GDP per capita. What’s more, analyze the development status and the technology content of China’s high-tech manufactures trade. The third chapter is from value-added exports aspect, I analyze the main factors affecting China’s high-tech manufactured intermediate inputs exports. Through analyzing value added exports theoretically, and making use of standard input-output tables and the trade data of manufactures and high-tech manufactures of each sample country, construct regional bilateral input-output tables respectively. And then calculate bilateral value added manufactures trade in China and the OECD sample countries. Based on this, firstly, compare China’s bilateral value added manufactures and high-tech manufactures trade with that of each sample country. Secondly, compare the value added balance and total trade balance between them. Thirldly, through the analysis of the economic benefits of China’s high-tech manufactures intermediate inputs, analyze the growth quality of China’s high-tech manufactured exports. Fourthly, through the decomposition of the ratio of value added high-tech manufactures exports in China and each sample country, analyze the determinants of the difference of value added exports content of various type of high-tech manufactures in the sample countries. Furthermore, through the decomposition of the total exports, analyze the main factors affecting China’s manufactures and high-tech manufacture exports. Fifthly, because production-sharing is reflected by intermediate inputs trade, analyze theoretically the high-tech manufactures parts and components trade, what’s more, examine and compare empirically the cases of China and the United States. The fourth chapter is from exchange rate pass-through aspect, I analyze the main factor affecting China’s high-tech manufactured exports. Using a heterogeneous enterprise model of international trade, analyze the impact of exchange rate adjustment on exports prices. The fifth chapter summarizes the main conclusion studied in the chapters above, and put forward relevant policies and recommendations.The following main conclusions are drawn in this article. Through the analysis of the technological content of China’s high-tech manufactured exports, I find out that, firstly, China’s TCI rises at a faster rate than that of the United States when comparing the development trend of theTCI between China and the United States. Sceondly, the effect of both the TCI on output and the JFD of each category on export are all positive and significant.Moreover, the TCI has a positive relation with GDP per capita, and China’s TCI is far more than that corresponding to its GDP per capita. Fourthly, various types of China’s manufactures comparative advantage and competitiveness are all improved to a large extent. And it is the categories with the largest export share that is the highest technological content among China’s total high-tech manufactured exports. The TCI of China’s high-tech manufactured has experienced continuous and rapid growth over the years, and significantly narrowed the gap with the developed countries. Through the analysis of the value added exports of China’s high-tech manufactures, I found out that, firstly, the total trade value all overestimate the value added in each country’s bilateral trade. Secondly, the value added balance of each category is less than the total trade balance to varying degrees. Thirdly, the economic benefits of the intermediate inputs of China’s high-tech manufactures showes a decreasing trend, and there is a big difference among various types of high-tech manufactured exports. Fourthly, it is the production-sharing rather than what exporting to each destination country that determines the difference of China’s bilateral value added high-tech manufactures exports. Fifthly, GDP, per capita GDP, the rule of law, trade-related infrastructure of exporter and the dummy variables such as trade agreements and Asian all promote the manufactured intermediate inputs trade in both China and the United States. Moreover, the exchange rate is also the determinant that affecting the intermediate inputs trade in the both two countries. The geographical distance and the unit labor costs of each partner country discourage China’s manufactured intermediate inputs trade significantly while the two factors are not significant for the United States. Though the analysis of the effect of exchange rate on China’s high-tech manufacturd exports prices, I find out that, due to the combined result of the intensive and extensive margin, there is incomplete exchange rate pass-through to export prices, and the degree of pass-through depands on the strength of the two effects. Using the data of all sample countries, there is a higher degree of exchange rate pass-through to the export prices. Since the difference of imports and the structural breaks of exchange rate in various countries during the sample periods, I examine the sample countries respectively and the result is, since the US dollar continuous depreciation resulting in a higher degree of exchange rate pass-through, the remaining sample countries show incomplete pass-through significantly except for the United States.更多还原