【作者】 詹伟；

【导师】 尚岳全；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 防灾减灾工程及防护工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国高速公路的快速发展,长隧道越来越多,在山区往往座座相邻,形成隧道群区域。隧道及隧道群由于其呈隐蔽带状分布的结构特点,给交通环境带来了不利影响,在大交通流量下,行车条件恶化,通行能力下降,安全问题突出。因此,分析高速公路隧道群路段的交通流特性,揭示隧道群区域交通事故的发生规律,开展隧道群区域交通安全保障技术研究,对提高高速公路运营管理水平、指导新建公路的规划设计具有借鉴意义。本文在已运营长大隧道群路段交通安全问题调查的基础上,围绕交通安全领域的核心技术问题,针对山区高速公路长大隧道群区域的运营特点和环境特征,进行隧道群区域交通事故特征分析及交通流特性研究,揭示了交通事故多发的主要致因,并建立事故预测模型和事故应急保障体系,建立交通安全管理的方法体系和基本框架,提升山区公路交通安全保障系统的技术水平。获得了以下几个方面的研究成果和结论：(1)开展了山区高速公路长大隧道群区域交通事故调查研究。通过对浙江省典型山区高速公路隧道路段事故资料的收集、整理、统计和分析,总结山区高速公路隧道和隧道群区域交通事故的空间分布,时间分布和事故形态分布规律,并通过和一般路段事故资料的对比分析,找出高速公路隧道区交通事故的分布特征和交通安全中存在的问题。(2)在典型高速公路隧道群路段交通流监测数据的基础上,利用车流速度、流量和密度三参数之间的关系分析了隧道群路段的交通流特征。根据实测数据研究了隧道群路段交通流的突变特征,利用突变模型分析得到了临界密度,量化了隧道群路段车流阻塞预警值,当实际监测的车流密度接近或达到临界密度时,公路管理部门就应采取相应的预警措施,保证该路段的畅通。(3)高速公路隧道群路段事故率明显高于一般路段,这与隧道群特殊环境、交通设施等确定性因素有关,同时又受交通流量变化、驾驶员心理状态、天气及气候异常等不确定因素的影响。(4)在调查分析典型高速公路隧道群路段交通事故原始数据的基础上,运用灰色理论建立预测模型,并利用残差模型进行修正,分析隧道群路段交通事故发展变化趋势,在此基础上引入马尔可夫优化,使得预测精度得到提高,可为高速公路隧道群路段交通事故预警和安全控制提供有效的决策支持。(5)进行了山区高速公路长大隧道群区域突发事件应急保障技术研究。结合典型隧道群路段事故和应急救援特点,分析突发事件管理的互动方式,探讨应急处理的组织机构和指挥体系的架构方法,为隧道区域突发事件的应急救援和疏散提供理论支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of highway in China, long tunnels become more and more in the mountain area. Tunnel group region with concealed and zonal structural characteristics have a negative impact on the traffic environment. The worse traffic condition and lower traffic capacity have resulted in decreased efficiency of transportation under large traffic volume. Therefore analysis of the traffic flow characteristics of the highway tunnel group region under large traffic volume and research on traffic safety protective technology have referential significance to improve the level of highway management and to guide the planning of new highway.Based on the survey of traffic safety problem and the original data of traffic volume in highway tunnel group region, the characteristics of traffic accident and traffic flow were studied. And the main cause of traffic accident in highway tunnel group region was analyzed. Then the forecasting model was founded to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The accident emergency security system was established to promote the level of safety protective technology. The results and conclusions are as follows:(1) The traffic accident of large tunnel group area in mountain highway was studied. The spatial distribution, time distribution and species distribution of accident were summarized by collecting and analyzing the accident information in Zhejiang province. Then the accident distribution characteristics and the traffic safety problems were researched by comparative analysis on accident information of common road section.(2) Based on the field monitoring data of traffic flow in a typical highway tunnel group region, the traffic flow characteristics were analyzed with statistical analyzing method of the relationship among the speed, volume and density of the traffic flow. The catastrophe characteristics of traffic flow were analyzed on the basis of field monitoring data and the value of critical density was obtained. The early warning measures should be taken in time by management when the monitoring data of density approaches to the critical value.(3) The accident rate of highway tunnel group region was much higher than the common road. It was related to many factors, not only the certain ones such as tunnel environment, traffic facilities, but also the uncertain factors such as the change of traffic flow, psychological state of drivers, weather changes and so on.(4) Based on the original data of traffic accidents in a typical highway tunnel group region, grey forecasting model which was modified by residual error model was founded to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The forecasting accuracy was improved by Markov optimization. The method has a better forecasting accuracy and practicality in a period than other common forecasting method. It can be used for the forecasting analysis of traffic accidents and for security early warning in highway tunnel group region.(5) The traffic safety protective technology of tunnel group area in mountain highway was studied. The management of sudden event was analyzed according to the characteristics of accident and emergency rescue. The measures of organization and command system were proposed to be used for the reference of emergency rescue and evacuation in highway tunnel group region更多还原