【作者】 屈国栋；

【导师】 楼章华； 严齐斌；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 区域水资源合理配置是解决区域日益严重的水资源短缺问题的有效途径,对区域内的水资源状况进行评价,研究如何让有限的水资源能够承载区域经济、社会、生态环境持续健康发展,就需要对区域水资源进行有效的合理配置。本文在对国内外水资源合理配置研究综述的基础上,根据研究区域周口市的实际状况,对该区域的水资源合理配置和配置方案的综合效益进行评价研究,主要研究内容和结论如下：(1)对研究区域水资源现状进行分析,对各子区水资源承载力进行综合评价。对周口市水资源利用状况进行调查分析,对水资源开发利用中存在的问题进行分析研究。根据水资源承载力的影响因素,组建水资源承载力评价指标体系；引进支持向量机技术,利用其在统计学习理论中结构风险最小化的原理,以及其解决非线性和高维识别中的优势,特别是其能克服主观因素的不利影响,构建了区域水资源承载力综合评价模型,并对周口市当前水资源承载能力进行综合评价,为区域水资源合理配置提供依据。(2)根据研究区域的经济社会发展规律和当前的水资源利用状况,对研究区域规划水平年的经济、社会及各行业用水量的发展趋势进行分析,组建适合研究区域特征的预测模型,对规划水平年研究区域各子区的需水量进行预测分析。(3)构建区域水资源合理配置模型,以区域用水的经济效益、社会效益、环境效益综合效益最大为目标构建区域水资源合理配置模型,针对多水源、多用户、多目标区域水资源合理配置在模型求解时容易出现“维数灾”或陷入局部最优等问题,本文提出基于免疫进化算法的粒子群优化算法,该算法将免疫原理引入粒子群算法中,利用其免疫记忆与自我调节机制保持适应度层次的粒子维持一定浓度,保证种群的多样性。充分利用了免疫进化算法的全局搜索特性和粒子群算法的局部搜索能力,克服了粒子群寻优中对初始种群的依耐和易陷入局部最优的不足。将该模型应用于周口市的水资源配置,得到规划水平年2015、2025年75%保证率下的水资源合理配置方案。(4)对水资源配置方案进行综合效益评价。系统的研究了方案综合效益评价的整个过程,建立了基于模糊物元和熵权迭代理论的水资源配置方案综合效益评价模型,该模型引入信息论中的熵值理论,从评价指标本身所反映的信息的无序化效应值来计算权重值,使得权重的推求有了理论依据。同时,将主观权重和熵权结合起来,形成综合权重,充分考虑了主观权重和客观权重各自蕴含的信息,兼顾了专家意见和客观数据属性,评价结果更加客观可信。评价结果表明,通过求解优化模型得到的合理配置方案综合效益高,对区域实现科学发展有实际指导意义。(5)针对周口市日益严重的水资源问题,以科学发展观为指导,提出了区域科学发展的具体措施。研究成果对促进区域水资源合理配置,实现区域经济、社会、生态环境的可持续发展有一定指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional water resources rational allocation is an effective way to solve the region’s growing water shortage, to evaluate the status of water resources in the region, and study how the limited water resources to be able to host the sustained and healthy development of regional economic, social, ecological environment, the need are effective regional water resources rational allocation. The study reviews the rational allocation of water resources at home and abroad, and on the basis of the actual situation according to the study area Zhoukou City, the region’s water resources rational allocation and the overall efficiency of the configuration program evaluation studies, the main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) Analysis the water resources status of the study region, a comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity for each sub-area. Investigation and analysis water use situation of Zhoukou City, analysis and research the existing problems in the development and utilization of water resources. According to the water resources bearing capacity factors, formating water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system; introduce support vector machine technology, use theory of structural risk minimization principle in statistical learning, as well as the advantages to solve the non-linear and high-dimensional identification, especially to overcome the subjective factors adversely affected, build a comprehensive evaluation model of regional water resources carrying capacity, and comprehensive evaluate the resources carrying capacity of Zhoukou City, and to provide a basis for the rational allocation of regional water resources.(2) According to the the economic laws of social development and utilization of water resources in the current situation of the study area, the planning year of the study area economy, society and industry water consumption trends analysis, formating a prediction model for the study area characteristics, and forecast the water demand in the planning year of the study area promoter region.(3) Constructing the rational allocation model of regional water resources, the model of regional water resources is built with the purpose of maximizing the comprehensive economic, social and environmental benefits of regional water consumption. In order to solve the problems that easily appear during the model solution of regional water resource optimal allocation with multiple water sources, multiple users and multiple objectives like "Curse of Dimensionality" or sinking into local optimum, this paper has proposed a particle swarm optimization algorithm based on immune evolutionary algorithm. This algorithm introduces immunology principle into particle swarm algorithm. Its immune memorizing and self-adjusting mechanism is utilized to keep the particles in the fitness level at a certain concentration and guarantee the diversity of population. Also, the global search characteristics of immune evolutionary algorithm and the local search capacity of particle swarm algorithm have been fully utilized to overcome the dependence of particle swarm optimization on initial swarm and the deficiency of vulnerability to local optimum. After applying this model to the allocation of water resources in Zhoukou, we obtain the scheme for optimization allocation of water resources in the planning level years, i.e.2015and2025under the guarantee rate of75%. The calculation results indicate the application of this algorithm to solve the issue of optimal allocation of regional water resources is reliable and reasonable, thus offering a new idea for solving the issue of optimal allocation of water resources.(4) Overall benefit evaluation of the the water resources allocation program. Systematic study of the overall efficiency of the whole process of the program evaluation, establish the allocation of water resources program effectiveness evaluation model based on fuzzy matter-element and Entropy iteration theory, the model introduces the theory of entropy in information theory, evaluation index itself reflects the disordering effect value of the information to calculate the weight value so that the weight of calculating theoretical basis. At the same time, the combination of subjective weight and Entropy form a comprehensive weight, give full consideration to the subjective weight and objective weight contains information, taking into account the expert opinion and objective data attributes, the results of the evaluation more objective and credible. The evaluation showed high overall efficiency of the rational allocation scheme obtained by solving the optimization model, and practical guidance to achieve scientific development to the region.(5) For the growing water problem Zhoukou, the scientific development concept as a guide, specific measures are proposed for scientific development of the regional. The research results have certain guiding significance on the promotion of regional water resources rational allocation and the sustainable development of regional economic, social and ecological environment.更多还原