【作者】 王立国；

【导师】 陈美球； 王光玉；

【作者基本信息】 江西农业大学 ， 森林经理学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 在全球气候变化的现实及政治博弈、环境及能源问题等背景下,森林碳汇的价值逐渐得到重视并通过市场补偿等多种形式体现出来,这将改变造林再造林、森林保护和管理方式等中国林业建设水平及发展方向。本文以三爪仑国家森林公园为研究对象,从碳补偿角度出发,运用低碳经济学及环境经济学等相关理论,建立森林碳汇和旅游碳足迹评估体系,并在游客、农户、当地政府等利益相关者意愿调查的基础上,构建碳汇管理决策行为模型,探讨森林公园利益相关者决策行为模式及其影响因素,分析森林公园碳补偿的动力机制,并提出碳补偿的可行途径,为森林公园的森林经营管理、社区参与、森林旅游可持续发展提供智力支持和决策借鉴,从而实现森林公园的经济、社会、环境效益统一,并最终达到其综合协调管理的目标。这不仅有利于探讨全球气候变化下森林公园经营管理新路径,有助于深化对森林生态旅游和森林经营管理理论的研究,而且为实践生态经济发展模式的课题探讨提供新思路,因而具有重要的理论和现实意义。主要研究内容和结论如下：(1)三爪仑森林公园碳汇潜力研究森林碳汇及其价值的测算可为森林碳补偿及管理提供依据。本文主要采用IPCC等方法分别估算各种植被的生物量,再根据生物量中碳元素含量推算碳储量及碳汇通过对研究区1999-2019年森林碳汇及其价值估算研究,结果表明：研究区的森林碳汇量和经济价值都很大,增长趋势明显。地类间的碳汇能力差异大,乔木林单位年增碳汇最多,为竹林的近60倍,乔木中混交类的碳汇能力是国外松的4倍多；林龄组间的碳汇能力差异大,过熟林是幼龄林的5倍。(2)三爪仑森林公园旅游碳足迹研究基于终端消费视角,从旅游六要素构建旅游产品层次的旅游碳足迹模型,测算出三爪仑森林公园旅游碳足迹。结果显示,2011年三爪仑旅游碳足迹总量为51233.65t,其中游览、住宿、餐饮、交通、购物、娱乐的碳足迹所占比重分别为7.55%、11.49%、7.62%、59%和5.28%；平均旅游碳足迹为36.66kg/人·次。(3)游客碳补偿行为研究在旅游碳足迹研究的基础上,通过问卷调查法和相关性分析、因子分析和多元回归分析等统计分析方法,探讨森林公园游客的碳补偿态度、动机、行为及其影响因素。研究表明：影响游客碳补偿决策行为的因素主要包括环境焦虑、参与动机及参与态度三个一级因子以及压力惧怕、制度焦虑、生境焦虑等七个二级因子；建立了游客碳补偿决策行为预测模型；分析并构建模型预测三种机制下碳补偿意愿强度；游客的年龄、职业和城乡差别会对其碳补偿参与行为产生显著影响。这些研究为游客碳补偿管理决策提供可靠依据。(4)农户碳汇管理决策行为研究通过问卷调查,应用有限理性模型和多元回归模型等方法,探讨了三爪仑农户的森林碳汇管理态度、动机、行为及其影响因素。结论为：农户对自然生态环境较关注;但大多数农户更在乎木材等实用价值胜于碳汇等附属价值；农户参与森林碳汇管理行为主要受补偿态度、未来信心、舆论态度等六个因素影响；农户碳汇管理决策模型可对农户参与概率进行预测：参与意愿强度主要受碳汇认知、收益态度等五个因素影响；据此构建了森林碳汇管理意愿强度预测模型。农户愿意参与的森林碳汇管理措施包括不移除林下枯死物、进行防火、林分抚育、管护、延长轮伐间隔期、减少森林砍伐和利用和增加生态公益林以增加生物多样性等。当前农户碳汇管理意愿强度不高,碳补偿对参与人数影响有限,但对提高碳汇管理意愿强度效果明显(5)政府碳汇管理决策行为研究通过问卷调查,应用一般统计分析方法,探讨地方政府的碳汇管理态度、动机、行为及其影响因素。结论为：地方政府对生态环境关注度和森林碳汇认知度非常高,参与组织农户森林碳汇管理的意愿较强；主要偏向于组织日常看管、防火和补植等森林经营管理活动。影响因素中,政绩因素能激励管理者理智地推进组织森林碳汇管理,经济因素是影响参与组织管理的重要考量。最后,根据上述研究,从旅游碳汇子市场、旅游碳汇基金、碳补偿门票等旅游碳补偿多样化手段,林业碳汇管理措施、政府制度性支持模式及社会支持网络体系等方面提出森林公园的碳汇管理对策及建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the context of the reality of global climate change and the political game, and the issues on the environment and energy, the value of the forest carbon sink is taken seriously gradually and reflected in various forms like market compensation, which will change the level of China’s forestry construction and development direction of the afforestation and reforestation, forest protection and management,etc. With Sanzhualun National Forest Park as a case, from the carbon offset perspective, the study, adopting low-carbon economic theory, environmental economics and other related theories, establishes forest carbon sink and travel carbon footprint evaluation system, and based on the willingness surveys of stakeholders concerning visitors, householders,etc, builds carbon-oriented forest management(COFM) decision models, explores decision-making(DM) patterns of forest Park stakeholders and its influencing factors, analyzes the dynamic mechanism of forest park carbon offset, proposes feasible ways in COFM, provides intellectual supports and DM references for forest management, community participation and sustainable development of forest tourism in order to achieve the integration of forest Park’s economic, social, and environmental benefits, ultimately accomplishing comprehensive coordination of management. This is not only beneficial to explore the new path of the forest park operation and management in the global climate change, helpful to deepen the study of forest eco-tourism and forest management theory and offers new ideas for practicing the subject exploration of eco-econornic development model and thus has important theoretical and practical significance. The main contents and results are as follows:(1)The research of carbon sequestration potential in Sanzhualun.Eestimation of the carbon sequestration and their value can provide the basis for compensation and COFM. This thesis adopts the IPCC and other methods to estimate the biomass of each forest vegetation, and then calculates the carbon storage and carbon sequestration. Estimation study of forest carbon sinks and the value in the study area showed in Sanzhualun the amount of forest carbon sinks and economic value are both great with the obvious growing trend. Carbon sink capacity varies greatly between forest types. Carbon sinks of arbo forestry units increase most in a year, nearly60times more than that of bamboo,and the carbon sink capacity of the mixed class in arbo forestry is four times more than the foreign pine trees; Forest carbon sink capacity has large differences among forestry age groups, and the over-mature forest is five times as great as the young forest in carbon sink capacity.(2)The Estimates of tourist carbon footprint(TCF).Based on the terminal consumer perspective, from six elements the TCF model of the travel product level is built, and the TCF of Sanzhualun Forest Park is estimated. The results showed that the total TCF was51233.65t in2011in Sanzhualun, including tours, accommodation, catering, transport, shopping, entertainment of7.55%,11.49%,7.62%,59%and5.28%; and the average TCFwas36.66kg/p.(3)The research on visitors’carbon offset behaviors. On the basis, through questionnaires and correlation analysis, factor analysis and multiple regression analysis and other statistical analysis methods the carbon offsets attitude of the forest visitors, motivation, behavior and its influencing factors are explored. Results are:The main factors affecting the DM behavior of visitors carbon offsets include the first-level ones namely environmental anxiety, participation motivation and attitude as well as seven second-level ones such as pressure fear, etc. The prediction model of carbon compensation DM is established; The model predicting carbon offset willingness strength in three mechanisms is analyzed and built; The age, occupation of visitors and urban-rural discrepancy has a significant impact on its carbon offset participation. These studies provide a reliable basis for carbon offset management decisions.(4)Study on COFM decision-making behavior of householders.By questionnaire, the finite rational model and multiple regression model, the forest carbon sink management attitude of Sanzhualun householders, motivation, behavior and its influencing factors are explored. Resultls are:householders are more concerned about the natural environment but most householders care more about the practical value of the timber than ancillary value like carbon sinks; The householders involved in COFM are mainly affected by six factors such as the compensation attitude, public opinion,etc.The farmer COFM decision-making model can predict the participation probability of householders; Participation willingness is mainly affected by the five factors like carbon sink cognition,etc; According to this the wish strength of COFM prediction model is constructed. Measures for householders to be willing to participate in COFM include non-removing the understory dead matter, fireproof, cut the miscellaneous, management and protection, extending the rotation interval, reducing deforestation and utilizing and increasing ecological forests to increase biodiversity. The current willingness strength of householders’COFM is not high, the carbon sink compensation has an limited impact on the number of participants, but enhances obviously wish intensity of COFM.(5) Study on the government COFM decision-making behavior.Through questionnaires, application of general statistical analysis methods, the local government’s COFM attitude, motivation, behavior and its influencing factors are explored. Results are:local governments have much attention and high cognition concerning the ecological environment and forest carbon sink, strongly willing to participate in the COFM, mainly tending to organize daily custody, fire proof, replanting and so on. In Influencing factors, the political performance ones can motivate managers to promote rationally the organization of COFM, and economic factors are important considerations affecting the participation in the organization and management.Based on above, Forest Park’s COFM countermeasures and suggestions are proposed, ranging from the travel carbon sink sub market, travel carbon sink fund, carbon offset tickets and varieties of means of travel carbon sequestration compensation, COFM measures to government policy support patterns and social support network systems, etc.更多还原