【作者】 刘克华；

【导师】 赵其国； 周生路；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 自然地理学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 精明增长理念作为一种全新的城市发展思路,在发达国家已逐渐成熟并取得较大进展。它强调社会经济与资源环境全面协调发展,通过城镇用地功能置换、城市控制边界划定、生态环境保护以及旧城改造等手段,促进城市紧凑、集中与高效发展。当前我国大多数城市呈现出以内核为圆心的外延“摊大饼”扩展模式,导致城市规模失控与土地资源的低效利用,不断加剧城市发展与用地需求的矛盾,较大程度地制约了城市的持续快速发展。新版泉州城市总体规划(2008-2030年)在上版规划基础上进一步扩大中心城区范围至980km2,划入环湾各城镇的泉州中心城区同样面临城市发展路径与模式的选择,精明增长理念无疑可为其城市化道路提供有益借鉴,对于解决土地资源约束下快速城市化进程中面临的一系列问题具有重要的现实意义。论文首先介绍了研究的选题背景,国内外相关研究进展以及开展研究的思路,介绍泉州市自然、社会经济及中心城区概况,指出加强中心城区建设对缓解土地利用问题,促进土地资源高效集约利用具有重要意义；其次,对泉州中心城区土地利用现状进行分析,并评价其土地利用效益,在此基础上总结了中心城区的土地利用特征与问题；接着,通过建立SLEUTH元胞自动机模型,设置城市自由扩展预案与规划增长预案两种情景模拟预测中心城区未来的城市发展状况,确定规划增长预案为其城市增长的适宜情景,并对适宜情景下的泉州中心城区城镇用地扩展的空间分异、总体模式以及影响因素进行了分析；然后基于城市扩展模拟与人口预测,综合估算中心城区近期建设用地需求量,并从存量、增量两方面汇总建设用地的供应潜力,针对供需平衡分析,从刚性控制、先期引导、内涵发展三个方面提出用地平衡的战略取向；最后从建设用地供需方式的调控、城市发展方向和增长边界的设置、交通基础设施对土地利用的引导、产业结构与布局的优化等方面架构了精明增长下城市用地扩展调控体系,并就泉州中心城区开展了实证分析,指出城市精明发展的实施重点。论文的研究结论主要体现在以下四方面：(1)中心城区凝聚力不强,土地利用效益较低,加强其建设有利于培育泉州市域城市增长极核,促进土地资源的高效利用。泉州综合经济实力较强,具有县域经济发达的典型特征,而其中心城区社会经济凝聚力不强,不能充分发挥“龙头”作用,呈现“小马拉大车”区域发展状况。打造环湾滨海区域,加强泉州中心城区的建设,可有效地解决发展空间与生态环境问题,利于土地集约利用程度的提高以及耕地资源的保护,充分发挥中心城区的凝聚力与先导作用,带动大泉州的城市建设与繁荣。(2)中心城区城市增长潜力强劲,基于SLEUTH模型的城镇用地扩展模拟结果较好的体现了其未来城市发展方向。据SLEUTH模型城市扩展模拟结果,2020年泉州中心城区新增城镇用地104.73km2,新增比例达78.45%；2030年新增城镇用地158.24km2,新增比例达118.53%,未来城市增长潜力强劲。城市扩展模拟结果较好地体现了中心城区的城市总体发展方向,新增城镇用地主要集中于环泉州湾核心区域及中心城区东部惠安县域内,外围城镇用地扩展较慢,基本符合泉州市城市总体规划确定的“东进、南下、北优、西控”城市用地发展方向。(3)近期、远期中心城区城镇用地扩展呈现分异,城镇拓展总体模式为“以工业用地为主导,以住宅用地为辅助,其他用地拓展并存”。2008-2020年,泉州中心城区城镇用地年均扩展速率为0.9%,各城镇单元扩展速率呈现“圈层式”结构,扩展活跃中心则呈现“分散式”特征;随着年份推移,中心城区城镇用地扩展速率逐渐下降,2021-2030年,其城镇用地年均扩展速率下降至0.55%,各城镇单元扩展速率呈现“方位式”结构,扩展活跃中心则呈现“集中式”特征。(4)中心城区未来城市增长的用地需求与供给潜力存在较大缺口,提出用地平衡的战略取向,应精心架构土地资源约束下城市精明增长的调控体系,并指导泉州中心实践。近期中心城区建设用地需求总量为51.77km2,其中城镇用地需求量为44.04km2,农村居民点、水利设施用地等非城镇建设用地需求量为7.73km2；建设用地供应总潜力为48.08km2,其中存量用地供应潜力为9.40kmm2,增量用地供应潜力为38.68km2。近期中心城区应以增量建设用地供应为主,存量用地供应为辅,从刚性控制、先期引导、内涵发展三个方面实施用地平衡策略,并从建设用地供需方式的调控、城市发展方向和增长边界的设置、交通基础实施对土地利用的引导、产业结构与布局的优化四个方面架构了土地资源约束下城市精明增长的调控体系。论文研究在以下方面具有一定的创新性：(1)改进了SLEUTH元胞自动机模型,设置不同情景预案模拟预测泉州中心城区城市扩展状况。构建SLEUTH元胞自动机模型于城市扩展研究中,根据研究目的对模型进行适当改进,设置自由扩展预案与规划增长预案两类情景模拟预测了泉州中心城区未来城镇用地增长情况,并对优选方案下中心城区城市扩展的分异特征、总体形式、主导因素进行了分析。(2)架构了精明增长下城市用地扩展的调控体系,并开展了实证研究。从建设用地供需方式的调控、城市发展方向和增长边界的设置、交通基础设施对土地利用的引导、产业结构与布局的优化等方面架构了精明增长下城市用地扩展的调控体系,并指出泉州中心城区城市精明发展的实施重点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Smart growth theory, a new urban development idea, has gradually matured and made great progress in developed countries. It emphasizes the overall harmonious development between social economic and natural environment through function replacement of urban land, control of urban boundary delimitation, the ecological protection, urban renewal and other means to make the city compact, focused and develop efficiently. At present, most cities in our country expand in a "pie" mode with the kernel as the center, resulting in loss of control of city size and the inefficient use of land resources and continually aggravate the contradiction between urban development and land demands. Therefore to a great degree it restricts its sustained and rapid development.In new version of Quanzhou City General Plan (2008-2030) the scope of central districts further expand into980km2. Based on the previous version, the towns included in central districts of Quanzhou also face to choose the path and mode of urban development. Smart growth theory will no doubt provide beneficial references for its urbanization. It has a practical significance in settling a series of problems in rapid urbanization under land constraints. This paper set the central districts in Quanzhou as an example to carry out a study between land constraints and smart growth, mainly including four parts:At first the paper mainly introduces the research background, domestic and international progress in the study; describes the natural, socio-economic profiles and features in the central district of Quanzhou. It is of great significance to strengthen the downtown building to alleviate land usage issues in city and promote high efficient and intensive land use. Secondly the paper analysises the current land use status in central district of Quanzhou and evaluates the land use efficiency. Based on it, it summes up characteristics and problems of the downtown land use. After that, through the establishment of SLEUTH cellular automaton model, it sets two scenarios of free expansion and preplanned growth to simulate and predicts the development status in the downtown in the future and confirms that the scenario of preplanned growth is more appropriate for urban growth; then analyzes spatial variation, overall pattern and influencing factors of urban expansion in the optimal scenario in Quanzhou City. Afterwords it bases on two approaches, simulation of urban expansion and population prediction to comprehensively estimate the recent demand of construction land in central district. And figure the potential of construction land supply in aspect of stock and increment, According to the analysis of balance between supply and demand, the paper come up with strategy of land use balance in three respects:rigid control, lead in advance, content development. At last, it proposes the guidelines for implementation of smart growth in Quanzhou, including regulation of demand and supply of construction land, direction of urban development and setting boundary delimitation, the guidance of transport infrastructure on land use, the optimization of industrial structure and layout. These measurements make up the regulation system of urban smart growth under land restrain. This paper is to carry out the empirical analysis to point out the priority of implementation of the smart growth in city.The conclusion is mainly divided into five parts:(1) Cohesion of central district in Quanzhou is not strong and land use efficiency is low, strengthening its construction is conducive to fostering growth kernel and promoting efficiency of land use. The overall economic strength is strong in Quanzhou and it has typical characteristics of the county economic development. However the cohesion of social-economic in central districts is not so strong and can not fully play a "leading" role, showing "a little horse drew a large cart". To develop around the gulf and Coastal region and strengthen the construction of central city can effectively solve the problem of development and ecological environment. It is conducive to a higher level of intensive land use and protection and fully plays the leading role of downtown cohesion. As a result it will bring out the whole prosperity of Quanzhou.(2) The growth potential in the central city is fairly strong. The results of simulation based on SLEUTH model of urban expansion better reflect its direction of urban development in the future. According to the results of simulation based on SLEUTH model of urban expansion, the newly increased land in Quanzhou in2020reach by104.73kmz, with an increased proportion of78.45%; in2030new urban land is added to158.24km2, with an increased proportion of118.53percent. It shows a strong potential for future urban growth. The results of the simulation better reflected the general direction of urban development, newly increased land are mainly distributed around the central bay of Quanzhou and Huian county, which lie on the east of central district. The external urban expansion is rather slow. The result mainly corresponds with the overall planning in Quanzhou which includes "toward the east, down to the south, give priority to the north, control the west".(3)There are diversities in urban land expansion in long-term and short-term. In the overall pattern of urban development, the industrial land plays a leading role with residential land as an assistant and other land expansion co-existed." In2008-2020, the average annual growth rate of urban land expansion is0.9%. The expansion rate of urban units grows like a "circle" while the center area of active expansion has a feature of "distribution". As the year goes on, the growth rate of land expansion in central districts decreased gradually. In2021-2030, its average annual growth rate of urban land decreased to0.55%, the growth rate of urban units shows characteristics of "Position type" structure, while the active expansion area show a feature of "centralization".(4)According to the calculation of increasing potential of land demands and supply in the central city, this paper proposed land use balance strategy and conceive a regulation system of smart growth for urban land under the land constraints. At present, the overall land demand for construction in central district is51.77km2. Including44.04km2of land demands in towns, there are7.73km2of land demands including residential settlements, water facilities and other non-urban construction usage. The overall supply potential for construction is as large as48.08km2with stock9.40km2and increment38.68km2.At present, the increment has a large part in the construction land supply while the stock is just supplemented in central districts with a margin of3.68km2. According to analysis of the land balance, this paper proposes some strategies to balance land use through the following three aspects:control rigidly, guide in advance, develop connotation and preliminary design the regulation system of smart growth under land restricted. There are some innovations in this research as follows:(1) This paper improves the SLEUTH model and innovates in terms of its application. It makes full use of it and establishes and applys the model in this paper to predict the urban development in the future. The model is improved according to the obejective of research. So it sets two scenarios of free expansion and preplanned growth to simulate and predict growth of urban land in Quanzhou City, then analyzes spatial variation, overall pattern and influencing factors of urban expansion in the optimal scenario in Quanzhou City.(2) It conceives the regulation system of urban smart growth under land constraints including following aspects:mode of supply and demand of the construction land, the direction of urban development and new boundary setting, the guidance of transport infrastructure on land use, the optimization of industrial structure and layout of the city finally the paper points out the focus of implementation. And it is applied to an empirical study.更多还原