【作者】 康顺岐；

【导师】 张波；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业与农村社会发展， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 人口老龄化已成为一个世界性难题,我国所面临的挑战尤为严峻。表现为老年群体绝对数量大、规模增速快,占总人口比例提高迅速的特征。特别是在数量庞大的老年人中,农村老年人占了七成以上,成为制约我国经济社会发展的重要问题。陕西地处我国中西部,经济社会发展水平不高,农村老年人口的养老保障问题日益突出。显然,探索在这样一个经济社会发展水平较低的省份构建起卓有成效的养老保障体系,具有重大而现实的意义。本文通过预测陕西农村老年人数量以及养老资金的需求,为建立健全农村社会养老保障制度提供政策的支持。研究以此为题,就是要以科学发展观为指导,希冀为解决农村老龄人口的养老保障做出局地的探索,对实现农村社会永续和谐发展有所裨益。研究以人口学、社会保障理论和公共政策理论为理论基础,综合采用定性分析法、定量分析法、比较分析方法、历史文献法以及问卷调查和实证研究的方法,对陕西农村老年人口的现状、规模走势、养老保障的资金需求和资金缺口进行了深入研究。研究的基本结构是：首先介绍了陕西农村养老保障需求的研究背景；其次,对陕西农村社会养老制度进行了简单的历史回溯,并对新旧农村养老保障制度做了整体性评价,以此作为论文的切入点,构成论文的逻辑起点；再次,以陕西农村老年人口的数量特征为基础,对比分析了陕西老年人口数量和年龄结构的城乡差异；根据中国2010年人口普查数据序列,运用人口规模的预测模型,对陕西2010-2050年的农村人口发展做了预测,描述了陕西农村老年人口数量规模和结构的变动趋势；第四,基于陕西农村地区老年人口分性别、分年龄的生活来源的调研数据,依据扩展线性支出模型,测算了陕西农村老年人口人均最低保障需求和基本保障需求,预测了未来陕西最低保障需求总量和基本保障需求总量；最后,研究通过对工业化国家农村人口状况、农村养老保险发展阶段、模式、特点与我国的农村养老保障制度进行了比较和借鉴。综合上述研究,论文从政策法律体系建设、道德文化建设、传统孝文化的弘扬、农村社区服务型居家养老模式创新以及农村商业养老保险的完善等方面,提出陕西农村养老政策建议。研究认为：1.陕西农村人口老龄化会随着农村人口比重的下降进一步加速。受出生人口队列规模变化的影响,陕西农村老龄化程度将明显高于城镇老龄化水平,且高龄老人数量增幅超过其他各年龄段的人口数量增幅；陕西农村老年人的经济收入来源主要集中在家庭其他成员的供养和老年人自己的离退休金,并存在明显的性别和年龄差异。2.陕西新农保规定的可以领取的基础养老金的数额,与最低生活保障和基本生活保障差距较大。从2011年开始,陕西农村60岁以上老年人口的最低和基本社会保障需求总量一直保持较快的增长,2030年最低社会保障需求总量为351.97亿元,基本社会保障需求总量为394.21亿元。到2050年,最低社会保障需求为453.33亿元,基本社会保障需求为502.41亿元。从最低生活保障需求来看,2010年最低生活保障需求为2502.99元,基本保障需求为2949.43元,折合每月最低生活保障为208元,而基本生活保障为245元。显然,新农保规定的可以领取的基础养老金的数额,与最低生活保障和基本生活保障差距比较大。3.应以财政支持为中心,建立完善农村养老保障制度,公共财政的投入是农村养老保险制度运行的保证；弘扬中国传统文化,巩固农村家庭养老保障。农村养老保障制度不能完全脱离家庭养老和土地的保障作用,建立以社会养老保障为主,家庭养老等其它养老形式为辅的农村养老保障制度；加大陕西农村养老保障制度创新；农村养老保险要从县级统筹逐渐发展到省级统筹,增加基金的分散风险的能力。论文的可能创新之处：1.系统分析了陕西农村养老制度的变迁,解读评价了旧农保和新农保的政策制度及其效果,并对比国外农村养老保障的制度发展阶段,提炼出可借鉴的发展经验和针对性较强的发展思路,对陕西这样目前还不是很发达的西部省份建设农村养老保障具有一定借鉴意义。2.现有的研究都是直接进行制度设计,而后通过社会保障模拟进行养老保障需求的预测。本研究把这个问题拆分开来,在设计农村养老保障体系的时候,先分析老年人口的结构,之后才根据人口结构状况进行预测,这样更有助于制度设计,也使得养老保障的需求更有说服力。论文在体系上,综合运用了人口学、社会保障性、政策分析等方法系统地对人口发展未来保障需求和陕西养老保障制度进行了设计。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, the aging of the population has become a worldwide problem, particularly acute challenges facing China. Especially in a huge number of the elderly, the elderly in rural areas account for70%.With the social and economic development, China’s aging population has brought increasingly heavy burden of the pension. China’s aging problem shows the characteristics of the big absolute number of the elderly groups, the rapid increase in scale and proportion of the total population. Located in the west of China, Shaanxi’s economic and social development level is not high, and the old-age security issues have become increasingly prominent in the elderly population in rural areas, which has become the major constraints in harmonious development in rural Shaanxi. Hereby, it’s of great practical significance to discover and build effective pension system in such a less developed province. By predicting the number of elderly people and the elderly pension fund requirements in rural areas in Shaanxi Province, this dissertation is aimed to provide policy supports for establishing a rural social old-age security system. With the scientific development concept as a guide, this research hopes to make local exploration for the rural old-age security and contribution to the sustainable and harmonious development for rural society.Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, demography, social security theory and public policy theory as the theoretical basis, the study integrates the statistical population method, comparative analysis, population forecasting models with empirical research methods, and explores into the status of rural elderly population in Shaanxi, the scale trend, the capital of the old-age security needs and funding gaps. The basic structure of the study is as following:Firstly, it introduces the research background of the Shaanxi elderly population demand for old-age security; Secondly, with brief historical retrospective and review of Shaanxi rural old-age security system as the entry point, the paper finds its the logical starting point; Thirdly, based on the quantity characteristics of the elderly population in rural areas, it makes the analysis of the urban-rural differences in the population number and the age structure; According to the2010census data sequence, using the predictive models of population size, the study has made predictions aboux the development of the rural population in Shaanxi Province in2020-2050, described the development tendency of the elderly population size and structure, and put forward the rural elderly population dependency ratio coefficient; Fourthly, with the survey data of the rural elderly people by sex, age, source of livelihood, and the extended linear expenditure model, it has estimated the minimum security requirements and basic security needs of Shaanxi rural elderly population per capita, and predicted the total demand; Finally, the study makes systematic comparison and reference by exploring into the rural population status, the stage, model, features of development of rural endowment insurance in industrialized countries. To sum up, this research has raised rural old-age policy recommendations in five aspects:the construction of policy and legal system, the construction of moral culture, carry-forward of the traditional culture of filial piety, the innovation of types of home care model in rural community service, and improvement of commercial pension insurance.1. The aging process of Shaanxi rural population will accelerate with the decrease of the proportion of the rural population. Influenced by birth cohort size change, the degree of aging in rural Shaanxi will be significantly higher than that of the urban, and the number increase size of the elderly will exceed any other age interval. The income sources of the rural elderly are mainly concentrated in the family support of other members and their retirees with significant gender and age differences.2. There is a large gap between the need of the minimum living security and basic living security and the amount of the basic pension of the new agricultural insurance provisions can afford. The total amount of the minimum living security and basic living security that the population aging60or older demand has maintained a rapid growth since2011.They will touch35.197billion yuan and39.421billion yuan in2030, and45.333billion yuan and50.241billion yuan in2050respectively. From the minimum living standard security demands, the minimum living security needed2502.99yuan in2010, and the basic security2949.43yuan, equivalent to a monthly minimum living allowance of208yuan, and the basic livelihood guarantee of245yuan. Obviously, the disparity between the basic pension amount the new farmer’s insurance supports and the minimum living security and basic living security is relatively large.3. The rural old-age security system should be established and improved with financial support. The guarantee of rural pension insurance system operation depends on public finance investment. At the same time, Chinese traditional culture should carried forward to strengthen rural family pension security. Rural old-age security system can not be completely divorced from the role of family pension and land protection. It should be established based on social old-age security, supplemented by family pension and other forms of rural old-age pension systems. Shaanxi rural pension system needs to be innovated. It must be co-ordinated from the county level to provincial level to increase the funds ability in risk diversification.Based on the previous study, the dissertation tries to innovate in the following aspects:1. With a systematic analysis of the change of Shaanxi rural pension system, interpretation and evaluation of the effects of former and present farmer’s insurance policies, and contrast with international rural old-age security systems, the research has extracted rich experiences and highly targeted development ideas, which may be revelatory to Shaanxi and other less developed western provinces.2. Existing studies usually make direct system design, and forecast the social security pension demands through pension simulation. This study has dissolved the problem. When rural old-age security system is designed, the structure of the elderly population is analyzed, then the prediction gained based on demographic conditions, which as a result will be more conducive and persuasive to system design. In the system of the thesis, the demographic, social security, policy analysis and other methods are used comprehensively to forecas the future security needs and to design Shaanxi old pension institution.更多还原