【作者】 赵红雷；

【导师】 贾金荣；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农产品国际贸易与政策， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 中国是世界上仅次于美国的第二大玉米出口国，也是重要的玉米进口国，其玉米生产、消费及在进出口贸易的波动，都将直接影响着世界玉米贸易格局。改革开放三十多年来中国年际间玉米进出口贸易呈现较大波动，在净出口国和净进口国之间多次转换。在中国玉米国内市场供求同世界玉米市场联系日益紧密的情况下，中国玉米进出口大幅涨落，必然会对国内和国际玉米市场带来不良影响。对中国来讲，大起大落的玉米进出口波动，给政府调控国内玉米市场供求、稳定价格带来很大困难，当这种贸易涨落与国内玉米市场供求矛盾出现不同步或者反应过度时，就会不正常地刺激国内市场玉米价格，放大或加剧国内玉米供求矛盾；对国际市场而言，中国玉米进出口贸易波动可使世界其他主要玉米贸易国对中国玉米进出口贸易需求不可预测，同时可能会导致国际市场玉米价格大幅动荡，因此研究中国玉米进出口贸易波动特点及成因，探寻波动规律和影响因素，研究有效调控波动的政策措施，对于稳定发展中国玉米进出口贸易、保障中国玉米产业安全乃至农业经济健康发展具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。本文应用经济学、统计学和国际贸易学等学科的基本理论，按照“认识波动-分析波动-调控波动”的研究思路，在对中国玉米进出口贸易发展历程和中国玉米参与国际市场竞争的优劣势分析基础上，首先利用速度法测算出中国玉米进出口贸易波动周期，并与世界其它玉米贸易大国的波动强度进行比较，全面认识中国玉米进出口贸易波动的总体状况。其次利用内部传导和外部冲击的波动产生理论分析中国玉米进出口贸易波动的影响因素及其相关性，运用中国与玉米贸易伙伴国的面板数据，分别构建出中国玉米进口贸易和出口贸易引力方程，并对各因素进行弹性分析，进一步利用市场恒定市场份额模型对中国玉米进出口贸易波动成因进行了事后再分析，得出各影响因素的影响方向和程度。在充分认识中国玉米进出口贸易波动特征和波动影响因素的基础上，最后理清调控中国玉米进出口贸易波动思路，提出中国玉米进出口贸易波动的调控对策与措施。本文得出的主要研究结论有：（1）中国玉米参与国际竞争的优劣势并存，国际竞争力较弱。中国玉米参与国际竞争的优势在于市场区位、非转基因、提高玉米单产和品质的潜力大；但在生产成本、商品品质、市场流通等方面存在劣势，通过测算中国玉米国际竞争力及与其它玉米出口大国的比较得出，中国玉米国际竞争力较弱且呈下降趋势。（2）利用速度法测算出1961-2010年中国玉米进出口贸易量的波动周期，发现中国玉米进出口贸易每隔4.45年就要发生一次大的波动，通过与世界其它玉米出口大国和进口大国贸易波动强度的比较发现中国玉米进出口贸易波动强度较大。（3）中国玉米进出口贸易密切相关的内部传导影响因素有生产、消费、价格，外部冲击因素有自然灾害、进出口贸易政策、购买力水平、运输成本、人民币实际有效汇率和国际竞争力等。（4）构建出中国玉米进出口贸易引力模型方程，弹性分析发现与中国玉米出口规模正相关的影响因素有中国及中国玉米出口国的国内生产总值，与中国玉米出口规模负相关的影响因素有中国及中国玉米出口国的人均可支配收入、中国玉米出口平均价格、人民币汇率、贸易双方之间的距离、贸易双方拥有共同边界，其中中国人均可支配收入的弹性系数为-11.9072，中国玉米出口国人均可支配收入的弹性系数为-1.1017，中国玉米出口平均价格的弹性系数为-7.3101；与中国玉米进口规模正相关的影响因素有中国玉米进口来源国的国内生产总值和国内玉米生产量、中国玉米国内价格，与中国玉米进口规模负相关的影响因素有中国国内生产总值和国内人均可支配收入、中国玉米进口平均价格、国际市场玉米价格、汇率、中国与贸易伙伴国之间的距离，其中中国国内人均可支配收入的弹性系数为-13.1771，中国玉米进口平均价格的弹性系数为-0.6499，中国玉米国内价格的弹性系数为3.2969、国际市场玉米价格的弹性系数为-2.8314。（5）竞争力效应与中国玉米出口额变动保持严格的同步性，并且贡献巨大，市场规模效应对中国玉米出口波动的作用表现为促进增长或减缓降低，市场分布效应对中国玉米出口都表现为制约增长或加剧减少，引力效应与中国玉米进口额变动保持严格的同步性，并且贡献较大，需求效应和中国玉米进口变动保持一致。本文认为调控中国玉米进出口贸易波动的对策和措施主要有：一是加强玉米进出口贸易波动相关研究；二是建立玉米进出口贸易监测和异常波动预警系统；三是充分发挥玉米期货市场价格发现功能，调控国内玉米市场价格；四是提高玉米种植积极性和单产，增强中国玉米生产供给能力；五是全面兼顾，合理协调消费需求；六是努力提高中国玉米国际竞争力；七是制定可持续性的玉米进出口贸易政策；八是准确把握玉米进出口时机和规模、合理协调玉米进出口配额。本研究的主要创新点在于：（1）运用速度法对中国玉米进出口贸易的波动周期进行划分，用“峰-峰”法把中国玉米出口贸易量和进口贸易量均划分为11个周期，发现中国玉米进出口贸易平均波动周期皆为4.45年，即中国玉米进出口贸易每隔4-5年就要发生一次大的波动；（2）运用国家“钻石”模型对中国玉米国际竞争力较弱的原因进行了分析，中国玉米生产的要素禀赋不丰富、国内需求水平过高、相关及辅助性产业总体上不发达、生产规模小、进出口贸易管理不当是造成中国玉米国际竞争力较弱且呈逐渐下降趋势的原因。（3）利用面板数据分别构建出中国玉米进出口贸易引力模型方程，对影响中国玉米进出口规模的因素进行了弹性分析，发现不同因素的影响效应具有较大差异，得出中国和贸易伙伴国的人均可支配收入对中国玉米进出口贸易规模的收入弹性系数，以及中国玉米进口平均价格、国内价格与国际市场价格对中国玉米进口规模的价格弹性系数。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is the world’s second largest maize exporter after the United States at one time oranother, and the main maize importer, its maize production, consumption and the volatility inthe international trade will directly affect the world maize trade pattern. China’s maize tradepresents larger fluctuation after reform an opening up, its status shifts many times between thenet exporter and importer. As the increasing connection between China’s maize supply in thedomestic and international market, the fluctuation of the maize import and export mayinevitably bring adverse effects to the domestic and international maize market. Theincreasing volatility increases the government difficulties to regulate the supply and demand,to stabilize the price. When the volatility is not synchronized with the supply and demand inthe domestic market, the maize price will become more abnormal, the contradictions betweenthe supply and demand will become more seriously. For the international market, thefluctuations make world’s other major trading nations not to predict international tradedemand of China’s maize is unpredictable, and may result maize prices turmoil in theinternational market. So, the analysis of China’s maize trade fluctuation characteristics andreasons, the exploration of inherent laws and influence factors, the study on the policies ofhow to regulate and control the volatility, all these have important theoretical and practicalsignificance to steady develop the China’s maize trade, to guarantee the safety of maizeindustry and to develop the national economy.This paper applies the basic theories of economics, statistics and international trade, etc.according to the research thinking of "know fluctuations-analysis fluctuations-regulate-fluctuations",bases on the analysis on the world maize trade pattern, China’s maize importand export trade development process, the advantages and disadvantages of China’s maizeparticipate in the international market competition, firstly measures China’s maize import andexport trade fluctuation cycle with the speed measuring method, compares with othercountries, understands the general status of China’s maize import and export trade fluctuationcomprehensively. Secondly, this paper makes the correlation analysis to the influence factorsof China’s maize import and export trade fluctuations with the fluctuation produce theory, using panel data, gravity model equation and market constant market share model analysis theinfluence factors and the fluctuations of China’s maize import and export trade. Basing onabove analysis, this paper finally clears the research thinking of how to regulate and controlthe trade fluctuations, proposes corresponding measures to regulate and control China’s maizeimport and export trade fluctuations.The main conclusions of this paper include:(1) there are both advantages anddisadvantages when China’s maize participates in the international competition and itscompetition is not strong. The advantages main includes market location, non-transgenic,potential of maize yield and quality; the disadvantages main includes production costs,product quality and market liquidity. After the calculation, finds that China’s maizecompetition is very weak, and this situation presents a descend tendency.(2) After calculatingthe maize import and export trade period of waves from1961-2010with speed estimate, findsthat the maize import and export trade in our country appears a wave every4.45years, andthis is very short than the other countries.(3) The endogenous conduction influencing factorswhich are closely related to our countries’ maize trade include production, consumption andprice, the external impact factors which are closely related to our countries’ maize tradeinclude natural disasters, import and export trade policies, purchasing power levels,transportation costs, exchange rates and international competitiveness, etc.(4) Constructs thegravity model equation of China’s maize import and export, finds that the influence factorswhich have positive correction to China’s maize exit dimensions mainly include China’s GDPand the maize importer’s GDP, the influence factors which have negative correction mainlyinclude both sides’ national income per head, China’s maize exports average price, and theRMB exchange rate, the distance and the common boundary. China’s per capita of nationalincome elasticity coefficient is11.9072, China’s maize exporter’s national income per capitaelastic coefficient is1.1017, China’s maize exports average price elastic coefficient is7.3101.The influence factors which have positive correction to China’s maize importdimensions mainly include the exporter’s GDP and domestic maize production, China’s maizedomestic prices, China’s maize import scale, the influence factors which have negativecorrection mainly include China’s gross domestic product and domestic national income perhead, China’s maize import average price, maize prices in international market, exchangerates, the distance between the trade partners. China’s domestic per capita national incomeelasticity coefficient is13.1771, China’s maize import average price elastic coefficient is0.6499, and the domestic price of China’s maize elastic coefficient is3.2969, the internationalmarket price elastic coefficient of maize for2.8314.(5) China’s export competitiveness effectmaintains strict change synchronicity with the export, and has great contribution, the size of the market effect on the export of China’s maize fluctuation mainly shows promote growth orslowed reduce, the market distribution effect mainly shows restrict growth or aggravationreduce, the gravitational effect mainly maintains strict change synchronicity with the export,and has great contribution, the demand effect has consistent change with China’s maizeimport.The paper suggests some countermeasures to control international trade fluctuation ofChina’s maize are: First, strengthen the related research on maize international tradefluctuations; Second, establish monitoring and early warning systems of maize abnormalfluctuations of international trade; Third, give full play to maize futures market pricediscovery function to regulation of the domestic market price of corn; Fourth, improveChina’s maize production motivation and yields to enhance and supply capacity; Fifth,coordination reasonably consumer demand; Sixth, improve effectively the internationalcompetitiveness of China’s maize; Seventh, develop sustainable maize international tradepolicy; Eighth, accurately grasp the timing and scale of international trade of China’s maize,and coordinate properly corn export quotas.The main innovation points of this paper include:(1) Divides the fluctuation cycle ofChina’s maize export and import with the speed method, divides China’s maize export andimport to elven cycles with the method of peak-peak, at the same time, analyses thecharacteristics of the cycles.(2) Analyses the reasons of China’s maize weak internationalcompetitiveness with the national diamond Model, the reasons include less China’s maizeproduction factor endowments, high domestic demand, underdeveloped relevant and auxiliaryindustry, small production scale and improper management.(3) Constructs China’s maizeimport and export gravity model equation by using the panel data, analyses the factors whichinfluence China’s maize trade scale, and the different factors has big different influence effect,educe income elasticity coefficients for China’s and trade copartners’ per national income tothe China’s maize import and export scale, and price elastic coefficients for China’s maizeimport average price, domestic price and international price to the China’s maize importexport scale.更多还原