【作者】 孙楠；

【导师】 赵忠；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 森林培育， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 陕西是中华民族的发祥地，历史悠久，物产丰富，在二十多万平方公里的土地上，曾广布有茂密的森林。森林是陕西省宝贵的自然资源，在经济建设及人民的生活中，特别是在调节气候，保持水土，涵养水源，防风固沙，改良土壤，环境保护，促进生态平衡，维护人类生存环境方面，都具有非常重要的意义。永寿县位于陕西省中部，渭北高原南缘，生态区位重要，是陕西省生态环境建设的重要区域。以永寿县为实例，研究陕西省林业的可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。本文主要采用专家咨询法、理论分析法、频度分析法及软系统归纳集成法(SSMII)进行评价指标的筛选，形成陕西省县域林业可持续发展综合评价指标体系，研究提出了陕西省林业可持续发展评价指标体系的设计思路和结果。指标体系分为总体层(l个指标)、综合评价层(4个指标)、项目评价层(10个指标)和子项目评价层(63个指标)四个层次。在此基础上，根据陕西省永寿县区域特点，结合当地林业发展现状，采用熵权法来获取指标权重，选取三种不同的评价方法，即传统的层次分析法（AHP）、基于组合权重的层次分析法与基于AHP的模糊综合评价法（F-AHP）对永寿县林业可持续发展进行评价。从评价结果可知，传统层次分析法（AHP）评价结果分数为15.745。基于组合权重的层次分析法得出的评价结果分数为60.991。基于AHP的模糊综合评价法（F-AHP）得出的评价结果为64.576。前者的结论显示永寿县林业可持续发展水平为欠发达的林业，而后面两种评价方法得出永寿县林业可持续发展水平为转型期的林业。仔细分析各种评价方法可知，层次分析法（AHP）在对事物做出评价的过程中全是主观信息的综合，各项权重的获取也是靠专家或是笔者的主观经验，忽略了客观信息，因而做出的评级结果有失真实性。后两种评价方法的评价得分虽有差异，但得出的结论皆为转型期的林业。三种方法得出的评级结论，有两种结果得出永寿县林业持续发展水平为转型期的林业，且此两种方法综合了主客观信息，得出的权重更加贴近实际，故本文采取后两种评级方法得出的结论，即永寿县林业可持续发展水平为转型期的林业，并对陕西林业可持续发展的策略进行了探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shaanxi Province, which has a long history as well as rich products, is the birthplace ofthe Chinese nation. There were thick forests covering this land of more than two hundredthousand kilometers. The forest is the precious natural resource for Shaanxi Province, it hasgreat significance in economic construction and the improvement of people’s livelihood,especially in the following aspects, such as climate regulation, water and soil conservation,windbreak and sand-fixation, soil improvement, environmental protection, ecological balanceand the safeguard of living environment of mankind. Located in the middle of ShaanxiProvince and the rim of Weibei plateau, Yongshou County is an important ecological district,takes the vital part in the environmental construction of Shaanxi Province as well. Hence, it isof great significance to consider the case of Yongshou County as an example to study thesustainable development of forestry in Shaanxi Province.The evaluation indexes which are determined by Delphi Technique, theory analysismethod, method of frequency analysis and SSMII, form the comprehensive evaluation indexsystem. The study proposes the design approaches and results of the sustainable developmentevaluation index system of forestry in Shaanxi Province. The index system consists of fourlevels: the overall level (1index), the level of comprehensive evaluation index (4indexes),the level of projects evaluation (10indexes) and the level of subprojects evaluation (63indexes). Combining this index system with the district characteristic of Yongshou Countyand its current status of forestry development, three different evaluation methods are chosenaccording to the index weight based on entropy method. These three different evaluationmethods of traditional AHP, AHP based on the combined weight and F-AHP based on AHPare employed in the evaluation of the sustainable development of forestry in YongshouCounty.The results show that the evaluation scores based on these three different evaluationmethods are respectively15.475(AHP),60.991(AHP based on the combined weight) and64.576(F-AHP based on AHP). The first score reveals the underdevelopment status of thesustainable development of forestry in Yongshou County. However, the other two scoressuggest the current transitional period of that. Comparing these three methods, the evaluation based on AHP is obtained through the systemization of subjective information, its indexweights are also determined by experts or the author of this essay according to theirexperience which ignores objective information and would inevitably lead to biased results. Indespite of different evaluation scores, the results of the other two methods both suggest thetransitional period for the sustainable development of forestry in Yongshou County. What’smore, with the consideration of both subjective and objective information, the index weightsof these two methods are closer to the real situation. Considering the above reasons, the studyadopts the results that the sustainable development level of the forestry in Yongshou County isexperiencing a transitional period, and explores the strategies for the sustainable developmentof forestry in Shaanxi Province.更多还原