【作者】 徐慧；

【导师】 黄贤金；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 土地利用与规划， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 农户作为盐碱地土地利用的主体,其行为选择对土地持续利用具有重要的作用。本研究以黄河三角洲、松嫩平原西部、伊犁河谷地区为研究区域,在理解盐碱农用地持续利用内涵的基础上,以盐碱地产权安排为切入点,从农户决策行为入手,借鉴相关计量经济学模型,讨论了盐碱地产权制度安排、农户行为响应与盐碱农用地持续利用三者之间的关系。全文的研究主要有以下几个方面：(1)盐碱地产权安排与农业持续利用作用机理分析。在对土地产权理论、可持续农业理论和农户行为理论梳理的基础上,界定了农地产权和盐碱农用地持续利用的内涵,并根据国内外实践和研究成果,提出了本研究的前提假设,并进一步分析了盐碱地产权与农业持续利用的作用机理。(2)盐碱地产权安排的农户耕作行为响应分析。基于Tobit函数,在农户层次上,建立了盐碱地产权安排的农户土地经营行为响应模型。从区域整体分析：①盐碱地产权安排对农户土地经营的影响主要体现在产权的稳定性、流转安全性以及由产权制度安排所引起的土地细碎化程度和人地资源协调度等方面。产权稳定性每提高1个单位,将会使农户流入耕地面积占家庭经营总面积的比例(以下简写为y1)增加15.8%；流转安全性指标每提高1个单位,y1绝对值将会增加0.156；农户家庭人均责任田耕地面积每增加1%,y1会降低16.8%；而农户家庭承包经营的责任田田块数量每降低1%,则会引起y1增加的绝对量为0.198。②影响y1的农户自身因素按照显著性从高到低依次为：农户收入结构>户主年龄>耕种意愿>劳动力数量>教育水平。其中,农户收入结构、劳动力数量、农户对盐碱农用地耕种意愿、户主教育水平等因素与y1正相关,而户主年龄与之负相关。③农业保险与yl正相关,而土壤盐碱化程度和农业补贴等因素与y1负相关。从区域差异性分析：①垦利县、镇赉县土地种植结构单一、复种指数低,分别为单季棉和单季稻。察布查尔县熟化盐碱地采取水旱轮作的方式,种植结构相对多样,而新增盐碱地以水田为主,撂荒现象严重。总体看来,以耐盐经济作物和粮食作物规模种植为主,特种耐盐植物、耐盐饲草等先锋作物比重很低。②垦利县农户盐碱地规模经营最明显,镇赉县次之,察布查尔县最低。维护产权稳定、减少田块数量、增加单个地块面积有利于提高垦利县农户耕作意愿。镇赉县宜通过盐碱地改良技术示范、推广,通过货币、政策、实物等多样化的技术补贴,提高农户耕种规模。察布查尔县则宜根据盐碱地改良的不同阶段,采取差异化、步进式补贴方式。(3)盐碱地产权安排的农户培肥行为响应分析。基于有序Probit函数,在田块层次上,建立了盐碱地产权安排的农户改良性培肥行为响应模型。分析表明：①从整体样本数据分析,影响农户改良性培肥行为选择(以下简称为y2)的盐碱地产权因素按照其显著性从高到低排序依次为：产权类型>产权的稳定性>农户对产权的认知水平>农户盐碱地产权抵押的意愿。盐碱地产权越稳定,农户对产权的认知水平越高,农户土地抵押意愿越强,农户越倾向于选择盐碱地改良性培肥行为。与责任田和转包地相比,农户更倾向于在自家开荒地上进行盐碱地土壤改良投资。除了盐碱地产权因素之外,是否有肥料补贴、农户种地意愿强度、盐碱地改良技术及配套程度、田块土地利用类型等农业政策及服务体系、农户特征和土地利用特征与y2关系均较为密切。②根据分区县样本分析,盐碱地产权因素对y2的影响差异较大。第一,在垦利县,影响y2的产权指标按照显著性从大到小依次为：产权安全性>土地调整频率>产权类型>农户对产权的认知水平等；其次,田块面积与y2正相关,而户主受教育水平、农业收入占家庭总收入的比重则与y2负相关。第二,在镇赉县,影响y2的产权指标主要有产权类型和产权抵押意愿2个指标。而田块指标和农户自身特征对因变量影响突出,其中,土地盐碱化程度、户主受教育水平、农业收入占家庭总收入的比重、农户盐碱地农业开发及耕种意愿等指标与y2负相关,家庭耕种土地总面积与y2呈现正相关关系。第三,在察布查尔县,农地产权因素对y2的影响并不明显,而肥料补贴、土地利用类型、农户盐碱地农业开发及耕种意愿、农户对产权的认知水平以及盐碱农用地利用技术及配套完备程度等则是主要驱动因素。根据回归结果,信贷的便利性以及土地产权抵押意愿也是影响y2的重要因素,但与之负相关。(4)盐碱地产权安排的农户水资源利用行为响应分析。基于二元Logistic函数,在农户层次上,建立了盐碱地产权安排的农户水资源利用行为响应模型。以农户是否采取盐碱地农业水资源利用行为为因变量(以下简称y3),区分农田水利设施是否涉及耕地占用和调整两种情形(如果是,记为情形Ⅰ；如果否,记为情形Ⅱ),分别进行定量模拟。分析表明,①全部样本数据模拟结果中,盐碱地资源利用及产权因素、水资源利用因素、农户特征及政府补贴等外部支持因素对y3均有密切影响。第一,耕地规模与y3正相关,并且在情形Ⅱ下,影响程度显著增强：土地越细碎化,土地调整越频繁,农户合理性灌溉行为选择意愿越弱。第二,水资源保证率越低,水费在农业生产总投入的比重越大,农户合理性灌溉行为选择意愿越强,并且在情形Ⅱ下,农田水利设施的完备度也成为影响y3的因素之一,并与之正向关联。第三,家庭劳动力和农业收入占家庭收入比重等农户特征与y3负相关,而政府对于水资源利用方式和农田水利设施投入的补贴则对农户的行为选择起到了催化作用。②在情形Ⅰ下,分县样本数据模拟结果表明,在垦利县,影响y3的因素按照显著性从高到低依次为：补贴≥土地产权稳定性≥耕地规模>水资源短缺程度>水利工程设施的完备程度,政府补贴越多、盐碱地产权越稳定、水资源越短缺、水利工程设施越完备、农户经营耕地规模越大,农户越倾向于选择合理性灌溉行为；镇赉县影响y3的因素按照显著性从高到低依次为：土地利用类型>地块数量>户主教育水平>水资源短缺程度>政府补贴,水田面积比重越大、地块总数量越少、户主受教育水平越高、水资源越短缺、政府补贴比例越高,农户越倾向于选择合理性灌溉行为；察布查尔县影响y3的因素按照显著性,从高到低依次为土地利用类型>水利工程设施的完备程度≥劳动力数量>耕地总面积。③在情形Ⅱ下,方程拟合优度较好,但各地区影响农户灌溉行为选择的因素显著性不明显,并且区域间差异较大。(5)在上述研究基础上,根据公共政策供给与需求理论,结合我国典型地区盐碱农用地利用实践,以盐碱地产权制度为切入点,区分国有土地和集体土地、新增土地和存量土地,按照盐碱地开发、利用和保护的思路,提出盐碱农用地持续利用管理方式集成方案。①针对新增国有盐碱农用地建议采用政府主导的开发与整治方式,采用市场主导的经营方式；②针对存量国有盐碱农用地建议在遵循原经营主体意愿的前提下,采用政府与市场主导相结合的方式进行盐碱地改良与经营；③针对新增集体盐碱农用地建议采用村集体主导方式进行开发整治与经营；④针对存量集体盐碱农用地建议采用中低产田改造等国家立项与村集体主导相结合的方式,综合采取补贴、信贷、保险等措施,促进盐碱地持续利用。在此基础上,对垦利县、镇赉县和察布查尔县等典型地区盐碱农用地持续利用管理从盐碱地开发、农业利用与土地资源保护等方面提出了优化方案和保障体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land salt-alkalinization is the prelude of desertification, which is the interactions result of the natural factors such as climate, water, light, heat and the patterns of land use for human beings. Land-use behaviors of farm households play an important role of the sustainable development of agriculture and saline-alkali land resources. Taking the Yellow River delta, the Western Songnen Plain and Yily valley region as the study area, on the basis of connotation of sustainable development of agriculture and saline-alkali land resources, the study discussed the relationship among the arrangement of property rights system of saline-alkali land, farm households’decision behavior and sustainable development of agriculture and saline-alkali land resources by the relevant econometric model, which was from perspective of the property rights system of saline-alkali land. The study included the following aspects:(1) The mechanism analysis of property rights system of saline-alkali land and the sustainable development of agriculture. On the basis of land property rights theory, sustainable agriculture theory and farmer households’ behavior theory, this study defined the connotation of farmland property rights and sustainable development of agriculture and saline-alkali land resources. Then, according to practice and research result, domestic and international, this part proposed the premise hypothesis, further analyzed the action mechanism of property rights system of saline-alkali land and sustainable development of agriculture.(2) The response of the farmers’ cultivation decision-making behavior to the arrangement of property rights system of saline-alkali land. Based on the tobit function, the response model of the farmers’land management behavior to the arrangement of property right system of saline-alkali land was built. The results showed that:①The impact of the arrangement of property right system of saline-alkali land to the farmers’land management mainly reflected on the steady of the farmland property rights, the safety of farmland transfer, the fragmentation of farmland and the coordination degree between human and farmland resource. With the growth of every unit of the steady of the farmland property right, the proportion of the area of farmer household inflow cultivated land to the whole operating area(abbreviated as y1in the following) would increase by15.8%; With growth of every unit of the safety of the farmland transfer, the absolute value of y1would increase0.156; With increase of per-capita contracted field areas of farmer households by1%, y1would reduce by16.8%; With decrease of the pieces of farmer households’contracted field by1%, the absolute value of y1would increase0.198.②The factors of farmer household themselves which influenced y1, the order was from high to low:farmer household income structure> the age of farm household> farming willingness to saline-alkali land of farm households> the amount of labor force> educational level. Among all the factors.farmer household income structure, the amount of labor force, farming willingness to saline-alkali land of farm households, educational level were correlated positively with y1, while the age of farm household had a negative correlation with1.③The factor of agriculture insurance had a positive correlation with y1, while the factors of the degree of salt-alkilinization and agricultural subsidy had a negative correlation with y1. According the regional difference, the results showed that:①the characters of single planting structure and low multiple cropping index are obvious in Kenli and Zhenlai with cotton and rice differently. In Chabuchaer, the paddy-upland crop rotation and multiple cropping modes are adopted on the stock saline-alkali land, while the abandonment phenomena are serious on the new saline-alkali land. In the all, the halophytic economic crop and food crop are main land use types, while the scale of halophytic plant and age crop is lower.②the dependent variable of y1is the highest in Kenli, Zhenlai second, Chabuchaer the last. It is good for y1to improve the safety of farmland transfer and reduce the fragmentation of farmland in Kenli. In Zhenlai, technology demonstration and multiple subdies including monetary, policy and physical subsidies play the important role. In Chabuchaer, the measure of subsidy strategic with stage differentiation in the saline-alkali land reclamation should be taken.(3) The response of the farmers’fertilization behavior to the arrangement of property rights system of saline-alkali land. Based on the ordered probit function, the response model of the farmers’ behavior of the ameliorative fertilizer application to the arrangement of property right system of saline-alkali land was built. The results showed that:①With the whole sample data, the order of the farmland property right factors was:the type of farmland property rights> the steady of the farmland property rights> the cognitive level of farmer households to the farmland property rights> the willingness of farmland mortgage for farm households, which influenced the decision-making to the ameliorative fertilizer application for farm householders (abbreviated as y2in the following). The more stable the farmland property rights, the higher cognitive level of farmer household to the farmland property right, the higher willingness to mortgage their land, the farm households were more willing to apply the ameliorative fertilizer to saline-alkali land. Compared to contracted field and sub-contracted field, farmer households prefer to improve the investment on the saline-alkali land developed by themselves. In addition, the agriculture policy and service system and the farm households’ characteristics were related to y2closely, including subsidy of manure fertilizer or not, farming willingness to saline-alkali land of farm households, improving technology of saline-alkali land and the degree of completeness, the type of land utilization in descending order by the influence degree.②According to the samples investigated from different counties, the simulation results existed great differences. Firstly, in Kenli County, by the decline order, the farmland property right factors were:the safety of farmland property right> the steady of the farmland property rights> the type of farmland property rights> the cognitive level of farmer households to the farmland property rights. While the area of sample field had a positive correlation with y2, the factors of educational level and farmer household income structure had a negative correlation with y2. Secondly, in Zhenlai county, the property right factors which influence y2, mainly included the type of farmland property rights and the willingness of farmland mortgage for farm households. The characteristics of sample fields and the farm households had great influence on the dependent variable. In particular, the following factors had significant negative correlation with y2which including the degree of salt-alkilinization, educational level of farm householder, farmer household income structure and farming willingness to saline-alkali land of farm households, while the operation scale of farm households was positively correlated with y2. Thirdly, in Chabuchaer county, the factor of farmland property right didn’t have an obvious impact on y2, but the others were the main positively driving factors, including subsidy of manure fertilizer, the type of land utilization, farming willingness to saline-alkali land of farm households, the cognitive level of farmer households to the farmland property rights and the improving technology of saline-alkali land and the degree of completeness. According to the regression results, the convenience of credit and the willingness of farmland mortgage for farm households were important factors to y2with the negative correlation.(4) The response of the farmers’ water resources utilization behavior to the arrangement of property rights system of saline-alkali land. Base on binary Logistic function, the response model of the farmers’behavior of water resources utilization to the arrangement of property right system of saline-alkali land was built. In this chapter, with the farmers’behavior of water resources utilization as the dependent variable (abbreviated as y3in the following), two scenarios were defined according whether the farm household was involved with cultivated land occupation or not(if so, taken as scenario Ⅰ; if not, taken as scenario Ⅱ), and then quantitative simulation was carried out respectively. The results showed that:①The factors of saline-alkali land resource utilization and property right, water resource utilization, farmer household characteristics and the external support of government subsidy were closely related with y3by the whole samples. In particular, firstly, the operation scale of farm households had a positive correlation with y3. In scenario Ⅱ, the influence degree was significantly increased. Besides, the worse the fragmentation of farmland, the more frequency of land adjustment, the lower willingness for farm households to adopt the right irrigation technologies. Secondly, the lower the guarantee degree of irrigation water resources, the greater the proportion of water expense in the whole agriculture investment, the stronger willingness for farm households to adopt the right irrigation technologies. In scenario Ⅱ, the matching degree of irrigation and water conservancy facilities affected y3also with a positive correlation.Thirdly, the factors of the amount of labor force and farmer household income structure had a negative correlation with y3. While the subsidy to irrigation and water conservancy facilities from government played an important driving role to the farmer households’decision-making.②In scenario I, the result of simulation based on the county samples shows that in Kenli county, the order of factors influencing y3from high to low was the subsidy to irrigation and water conservancy facilities> the steady of the farmland property rights> the operation scale of farm households> the shortage of water resource> the matching degree of irrigation and water conservancy facilities. The more subsidy supplied by the government, the more stable the farmland property rights, the worse the shortage of water resource, the more completed the irrigation and water conservancy facilities and the bigger the operation scale of farm households, the stronger willingness for farm households to adopt the right irrigation technologies. In Zhenlai county, the order of factors influencing y3from high to low followed:the type of land utilization> the fragmentation of farmland> educational level of farm household> the shortage of water resource> the subsidy to irrigation and water conservancy facilities. The more subsidy supplied by the government, the higher proportion of paddy fields, the worse the shortage of water resource, the higher education level of farmer household, the less the number of field, the stronger willingness for farm households to adopt the right irrigation technologies. In Chabuchaer county, the order of factors influencing y3from high to low was:the type of land utilization> the matching degree of irrigation and water conservancy facilities≥the amount of labor force> the operation scale of farm households.③In scenario Ⅱ, the goodness of fit test performed well, but the factors there weren’t significant correlation with the obvious difference respectively in the study areas.(5) Based on the above analysis and the public policy supply and demand theory, combined with the agriculture practice in typical saline-alkali land areas in China, the study put forward the integrated system of management methods for the purpose of sustainable development of agriculture and saline-alkali land resources.①For the new state-owned saline-alkali land, development by the country and government and operation by market-leading is the suitable improvement measure;②For the stock state-owned saline-alkali land, on the premise of respect for the willingness of farm households, the government-leading in combination with market is right;③For the new collective saline-alkali land, the development and operation should adopt the village collective organizations-leading mode;④For the stock collective saline-alkali land, the national project combined with the village collective organizations leading is efficient with the agricultural subsidy, credit support, agricultural insurance for the purpose of the sustainable land use. On the base of the above all, the optimized scheme and security system were established from the aspects of the development of saline-alkali land resources, agriculture operation and land resource protection in Kenli county, Zhenlai county and Chabuchaer county differently.更多还原