中国发生经济危机的可能性研究

【作者】 杨溢；

【导师】 刘熀松；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 西方经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 自从1825年英国爆发第一次周期性普遍生产过剩的经济危机以来,经济危机就成为困扰市场经济正常运行的重要因素。而对经济危机的理论研究也随着不同时期经济危机的出现而不断发展和完善。而本文的主要目的,是通过对历史上三次大型的经济危机——1929年美国大萧条、1991年日本经济泡沫破灭、以及2008年美国次贷危机——的具体分析,找出危机爆发原因的共同点,并能对当前中国经济发展中遇到的问题作出一定的指引。三次危机的爆发,从短期原因来看,都是起始于股票市场或者房地产市场泡沫的破灭。产生资产泡沫的原因,主要来自于危机爆发之前政府所采取的宽松的货币政策,表现在长期偏低的实际利率、宽松的银行信贷,以及银行贷款对房地产业过度的倾斜等方面。而从长期因素看,贫富不均的加剧、不利的人口因素,都会制约经济的增长。以这些指标为借鉴,本文在详细分析中国货币政策、股票市场和房地产市场的泡沫、金融系统风险、贫富差距、人口状况和城市化道路的基础上,评估了中国爆发经济危机的可能性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since its first burst in England in1825, economic crises has become the factor that significantly influenced the working of macro economy. The economic crises theory has also been improved and perfected with the break out of crises in different period.The purpose of this paper, is to find out the common reasons of economic crises, through the analysis of three crises in history, which is the great depression in U.S. A in1929, the Japanese economy bubbles in1991, and the subprime crises in2008, and finally to give some suggestion to the economic problem what China is confronted with now. The short term common reason of these crises is the bubble burst of the stock market or real estate market, which mainly derived from the easy monetary policy, such as the low real interest rate, the high bank credit growth, and the significant increase of the real estate loan from commercial bank. For long term, the wealth inequality and the negative demographic factor also slowed down the economic growth. Based on the international experience, we analyzed the prevailing monetary policy, bubbles in stock and real estate market, risk from financial system, inequality, demographic factor and the process of urbanization in detail, and finally made a systematic evaluation of the possibility of economic crises burst in China.更多还原