要素流动与全球经济失衡

【作者】 申蕾；

【导师】 张幼文；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 世界经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 近年来随着全球经济失衡不断加剧,学者们围绕失衡的原因、趋势等问题进行了大量探索研究,但尚无统一定论。实际上,当前的全球经济失衡局面并不在于一些短期的政策性因素、也不在于中期的周期性因素,而应归结为长期的历史性因素,这个历史因素即为生产要素的国际流动。单从现象来看,失衡突出体现在发达国家与新兴经济体之间的贸易失衡上但本质上的形成原因在于生产要素的国际流动。其中流动性极强的资本要素是最重要的根本性因素,鉴于资本的逐利性,资本要素通常由低价格区域流向高价格区域以获取更高收益。发达国家资产存量丰富,资本价格较低因而成为资本流出国家,其进行对外直接投资(FDI)的动因是以寻求稀缺的劳动力要素为主,通过以资本要素流动为本质的FDI达成了这一主观目的,同时在客观上造成了产业转移的结果。新兴经济体资产存量匮乏,资本价格较高因而成为资本流入国家,其大量的廉价劳动力要素是吸引外资流入的重要原因,同时通过参与全球产业转移迅速积累起大量贸易顺差,但低附加值的加工贸易方式使其处在全球产业分工价值链中的低端位置。新兴经济体所积累的大量外汇储备由于购买发达国家金融资产回流到发达国家国内,后者的巨额贸易逆差得以长期维持。因此可以说,要素流动是全球经济失衡的重要微观成因。经济全球化是当今世界经济运行的重要环境因素,在经济全球化浪潮影响下,要素流动逐渐演变成为世界经济运行的本质特征。文章从2009年世界经济危机着手,在简单回顾世界经济危机的概况及成因之后说明经济危机暴露了全球经济失衡。其次,文章对全球经济失衡进行简要概述,并指出全球经济失衡是在世界经济运行过程中出现的一类客观经济现象,也是全球经济动态平衡中的永恒现象。现阶段全球经济失衡的主要特征为贸易失衡,此外,虚拟经济与实体经济失衡,以及世界范围内的资源配置及发展需求失衡也是全球经济失衡的重要特征之一。再次,文章将研究的重点落在了剖析全球经济失衡的深层次成因上,通过要素流动在经济全球化中的地位、全球产业转移的过程及特点、全球产业转移中的要素流动以及当前全球产业转移下的全球经济失衡等一步步的分析研究,最终得出要素流动是全球经济失衡的重要微观成因。接下来,文章构建了一个数理模型,再进一步利用实际数据进行计量分析以验证要素流动是全球经济失衡的重要成因这一结论。最后,分析指出后危机时代的应对措施及其不足,探讨国际组织机构在应对全球经济失衡方面的新进展,以及中国在全球经济失衡当中所处的地位及应对措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the growing global economic imbalances, scholars made a large number of research on the reason and trend, but there is no unified conclusion. In fact, the current global economic imbalances is not due to the short-term policy, nor the medium-term cyclical factors, instead, it is a result of the long-term historical factors, which means the international mobility of factors of production.On the face of it, the global economic imbalance is most conspicuous in the trade imbalances between the developed and emerging economies, but essentially, it is a result of international mobility of production factors. The capital factor is the most important fundamental factor. In order to obtain higher yields, the profit-driven capital usually flows from the low price area to the high price area. Asset stocks in developed countries is rich, the price of capital is lower, thus the capital outflow from the developed country, the purpose of foreign direct investment (FDI) is mainly to seek scarce labor factor. In essence, FDI is a form of capital factor mobility, meanwhile it causes the result of the global industrial transfer objectively. Asset stocks in emerging economies is poor, the price of capital is higher, thus the capital flows into the emerging economies, the large amounts of cheap labor factor is an important reason to attract foreign capital inflows, emerging economies accumulate rapidly substantial trade surplus through participating in the global industrial transfer, but the low value-added processing trade make it in the low-end position of the value chain based on international industrial division. Using its accumulated foreign exchange reserves, Emerging economies purchase a lot of financial assets in developed countries, sustaining the long-term huge trade deficit of developed countries. Therefore we can say, factor mobility is an important microeconomic cause of global economic imbalances.Economic globalization is an important environmental factor nowadays; factor mobility gradually evolves into the essential feature of world economy under the impact of economic globalization. This paper begins with the world economic crisis in2009, after a brief review of the world economic crisis, pointing out it is the crisis that revealed the global economic imbalances. Second, the paper has a brief overview of the global economic imbalances, and indicates that the global imbalances is a kind of objective economic phenomenon in the world economy, as well as an eternal phenomenon in the global economy homeostasis. The main feature of global imbalances is trade imbalances, in addition, the imbalances between the virtual and the real economy, and the imbalances between the allocation of resources and the development, are other two features. Then, the paper focuses on profiling the deep-seated cause of global economic imbalances, factor mobility in the economic globalization、the process and characteristics of global industrial transfer、factor mobility in the global industrial transfer、global economic imbalances under the impact of global industrial industry, through a step-by-step analysis, ultimately come to the conclusion that factor mobility is the important microeconomic cause of the global economic imbalances. Next, the paper built a mathematical model, and then uses the actual data in the quantitative analysis to verify the conclusion above. Finally, the paper analyzes the problem of the deficient validity about the post-crisis era response, at the same time, explores the new progresses of response in international organizations, the status of China in the global economic imbalances and response.更多还原