我国GDP中劳动报酬份额的下降

【作者】 杨昕；

【导师】 左学金；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 人口、资源、环境经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来的三十多年间,我国的经济快速发展、影响力显著提升,成为经济总量仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时,我国劳动收入占国民收入的份额也出现了数次重大变动,特别是上世纪90年代以来,劳动收入占比逐年下滑,到2007年达到最低点39.7%,虽然自2008年以来,该指标略有回升,但也没有超过45%。与世界其他国家相比,我国的劳动收入占比处于较低水平。与此相对应的则是资本回报占GDP比重的逐渐攀升,两者的一降一升表明目前我国的国民收入初次分配呈现出“强资本、弱劳动”的特征,与我国要素禀赋结构相悖。鉴于初次分配格局对于全社会收入分配的公平性具有决定作用,而且经济发展成果共享是国家、社会和个人的共同目标,对劳动收入占比进行研究具有理论和实践意义。已有的劳动收入占比研究大多是从资金流的角度来开展,而且更多的关注了经济运行自身的规律性,对制度环境的影响重视不够,即使有涉及制度因素的研究,也多数是关于财税政策、所有制改革等方面内容,对社会管理制度,特别是户籍制度、社会保障制度的影响有所忽视。本文认为“政策之治”的改革路径表明社会政策在我国具有非常重要的影响力,对人们的行为具有很大约束性。已有的研究看到了劳动与资本收入分配不公在微观层面表现为城乡间、人群间的收入差距拉大,却忽略了有可能是因为制度固化导致微观个体的收入差距拉大,进而影响到宏观层面的劳动收入占比。本文试图从制度环境的角度来切入,主要回答的问题是：户籍管理制度仍然存在的情况下,农村劳动力转移对于劳动收入占比起到了怎样的作用?进而,我们将这一问题分成了三个小问题：第一,不考虑户籍制度的约束影响时,农村转移劳动力对于劳动收入占比有怎样的影响?第二,户籍制度对农村转移劳动力的收入具有怎样的影响,在城镇劳动力和农村劳动力收入差距中起到了怎样的作用?第三,当同时考虑其他影响因素时,农村转移劳动力对劳动收入占比的影响是怎样的?对第一个小问题,本文先从理论上将农村劳动力转移对劳动收入占比的影响分解为四部分,一是通过劳动力转移改变了产业结构,高劳动收入占比部门的就业份额下降而低劳动收入占比部门的就业份额上升,这一影响表现为拉低总劳动收入占比；二是劳动力转入非农部门后改变了非农部门的劳动力供求关系而带来的非农部门收入水平下降,这一影响同样表现为拉低总劳动收入占比；三是劳动从农业部门转出后使得农业部门的收入水平有所上升,这一影响表现为减缓总劳动收入占比下降；四是由于农业和非农业部门之间存在工资水平的联动效应,农村劳动力转移对非农部门收入的冲击会被抵消一部分,这一影响也会表现为缓解总劳动收入占比下降。总体而言,农村劳动力转移对于总的劳动收入占比具有两个方向的影响,但总的影响是负向的。在理论分解完成后,我们设计了两个实证模型,结果表明,农村劳动力转移规模无论对非农部门的劳动收入占比还是对总的劳动收入占比都具有显著作用。对于第二个小问题,我们运用1997-2006年中国家庭营养和健康调查(CHNS)数据,用明瑟方程构建了劳动力的工资决定方程,用Brown分解法分解了城镇劳动力和农村转移劳动力工资差距的决定因素。实证的结果表明,户籍身份对于劳动力的工资收入具有明显的影响作用,而且对于劳动力是否进入公有制部门或者实现正规就业具有显著影响。而城镇劳动力和农村转移劳动力工资差距中有一半以上是源于户籍歧视等制度性因素。对于第三个小问题,我们先从理论上论证了由于农村转移劳动力在身份转换滞后情况下只能获得低于正常水平的收入,随着农村转移劳动力在非农就业的比例上升,总的劳动报酬将越来越低于正常水平。我们构建了一个包括经济发展水平、非公有部门发展、农村劳动力转移、经济全球化、资本深化和技术进步等多种因素在内的回归模型,以此检验农村劳动力的影响力。结果表明农村转移劳动力对总的劳动收入占比具有相当显著的负向影响,其他因素的影响力有的与现有主流观点相符,有的则并不相符。根据以上的研究,我们得出结论：劳动收入占比逐渐下降是世界范围内发生的现象,从这个角度上讲可能是一种经济发展的必然,但在必然的趋势中更需注意公平性的问题,在我国由于户籍管理制度等因素的影响农村转移劳动力的收入低于正常的市场价格,更低于他们的经济贡献。因此,农村转移劳动力对劳动收入占比具有负向的影响作用,也正由于这一特殊人群的存在,已有研究中其他因素的影响力可能被夸大。有鉴于此,我们可以在深化户籍及配套制度改革、培育工会组织、实行集体.议价谈判制度、加强各类经济部门的经营规范性、加强劳动力(特别是农村转移劳动力)的技能培训、改变贸易模式、重视农业部门自身发展等方面有所作为。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s economy has been developed rapidly and its influence has been improved significantly during more than30years since the reform and opening up, and China has become the second largest economy after the US on the economic aggregate in the world. At the same time, there were several significant changes in the share of labor income over the national income in China, especially since the1990s, the labor income share had been declining year by year, reaching to the lowest point of39.7%in2007. The indicator had rebounded slightly since2008, but not more than45%. Compared with the other countries in the world, the labor income share in China is at a lower level; on the contrary, the proportion of return on capital to GDP is gradually rising; this phenomenon indicated that the initial distribution of China’s national income was currently showing the feature of "strong capital but weak labor", which was inconsistent with the factor endowment structure in China. Given that the initial distribution pattern plays a decisive role in the fairness of income distribution of the whole society, and the sharing of fruits of economic development is the common goal of the state, society and individuals, so it has theoretical and practical significance to the study of labor income share.Most of the existing studies of labor income shares had been carried out from the aspect of fund flow, attaching more attention to the regularity of economic operation but less attention to the influence of institutional environment. Even there was any studies involving the institutional factors, most of the content was about the finance and taxation policies and the reform of ownership, and the influence of social management system, especially the household registration system and the social security system, had been neglected. This paper holds that the reform path of "the rule of policy" shows that social policies are of great importance in China and have great constraints on people’s behavior. The existing studies had found that the unfair distribution of labor and capital income showed the widening income gap between urban and rural areas and among the people at the micro level, but it might ignore that the solidified systems caused the widening income gap among the micro individuals, which in turn affected the labor income share at the macro level. This paper makes an attempt to cut to the chase from the point of institutional environment, mainly answering the question:under the condition that household registration management system still exists, what role has the transfer of rural labor force played in the labor income share? Then, we divided this question into three small questions:First, regardless of the constraints of household registration system, what is the impact of the transfer of rural labor force on the labor income share? Second, what is the impact of household registration system on the income of the transferred rural labor force, and what role does household registration system play in the income gap between urban and rural labor force? Third, when taking into account the other influencing factors, what is the impact of the transferred rural labor force on the labor income share?For the first small question, this paper theoretically breaks down the impact of the transfer of rural labor force on the labor income share into four parts:1) The industrial structure has been changed due to the transfer of labor force, the laborer share of sectors with high labor income share declining while that of sectors with low labor income share increasing, and this effect is manifested driving down the total labor income share;2) The transfer of labor force to non-agricultural sectors changes the supply and demand of labor force in non-agricultural sectors, so as to cause the falling of income level of non-agricultural sectors, which is also manifested driving down the total labor income share;3) The transfer of labor force from agricultural sectors brings an increase in the income level of agricultural sectors, which shows the slowdown of the decline in total labor income share; and4) There exists the linkage effect of wage level between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, so the impact of transfer of rural labor force on the income of non-agricultural sectors will be partially offset, which also shows the slowdown of the decline in total labor income share. In general, there are two directions of impact of the transfer of rural labor force on the total labor income share, but the overall impact is negative. After the completion of the breakdown of theory, we designed two empirical models, and the results showed that the transfer scale of rural labor force played a significant role in both the labor income share of non-agricultural sector and the total labor income share.For the second small question, we applied the CHNS data from1997to2006, built an equation of labor wage determination with Mincer Function and broke down the determinant in the wage gap between urban and transferred rural labor force with Brown Decomposition Approach. The results showed that household register and identity had obvious impact on the wage income of labor force and also had obvious significance on whether the labor force would join the public sectors or realize the formal employment. However, more than half of the wage gap between urban labor force and transferred rural labor force stemmed from the household registration discrimination and other institutional factors.For the third small question, we first demonstrated theoretically that only the income lower than normal level could be got due to the lag of identity conversion of transferred labor force, and along with the employment proportion of transferred labor force in non-agricultural sectors increasing, the total labor income would be lower and lower than the normal level. We built a regression model including many factors, such as economic development level, development of non-public sectors, transfer of rural labor force, economic globalization, capital deepening and technological progress, etc., in order to test the influence of rural labor force. The results showed that there was quite significant negative impact of transferred rural labor force on the total labor income share, and some of the influences of other factors were consistent with the existing mainstream view, while some were not consistent. Based on the above study, we concluded that the gradual decline of labor income was a worldwide phenomenon and from this perspective, it was an inevitable result of economic development, but more attention should be given to the fairness in the inevitable trend; and due to the influence of household registration management system, the income of transferred rural labor force was lower than the normal market level in China, which was much lower than their contribution to economy.Therefore, the transferred rural labor force plays a negative role in the labor income share; and because of the existence of the special populations, the influences of other factors in the existing studies may be exaggerated.In view of this, we can make a difference in deepening the reform of household registration and supporting system, cultivating labor union, implementing the system of collective bargaining, strengthening the operational regulations of various economic sectors, reinforcing the skills training of labor force (especially the transferred rural labor force), changing trade patterns and attaching importance to the development of agricultural sectors, etc.更多还原