【作者】 孟芳兵；

【导师】 王爱民；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 青少年是国家的未来,民族的希望。高度重视和正确认识青少年犯罪问题,研究预防和减少青少年犯罪的方法和途径,不仅关系到青少年的自身前途、家庭幸福,更关系到国家的稳定和社会的长治久安,应当引起全社会的高度重视。当前,我国已经进入到改革发展的关键时期,各种利益分配格局不断调整,社会深层次矛盾逐渐凸显,社会转型在带来经济高速发展的同时,也出现了多元思想、多元文化、多元价值观。其中一些不良文化渗透到了青少年观念中,毒害着青少年的思想意识。我国青少年犯罪人数不断增多、重大恶性案件不时发生,同时青少年犯罪的低龄化、暴力化、团伙化、成人化和多样化趋势更加明显,总体形势十分严峻。针对我国青少年犯罪的现实形势,本论文综合运用教育学、法学、社会学、政治学、管理学、心理学等相关学科的理论和方法,将多学科的学术前沿内容有机地交叉融合在一起,进行了针对性的研究。全文由八个部分组成：第一部分说明了本文的研究背景及选题的来源,明确了研究目标和研究意义,在国内外相关研究综述的基础上,确定了研究的内容及方法；第二部分总结了国内外关于青少年犯罪的相关理论,对青少年、青少年犯罪的概念进行了厘清和界定,并对青少年犯罪的预警管理理论和方法进行了梳理；第三部分重点研究了青少年犯罪现状、类型、特征、成因,并将图论与结构方程模型的路径分析技术相结合,对青少年犯罪的演化趋势和演化路径进行了分析,建立了青少年犯罪的演化路径分析模型；第四部分结合W市少管所568名被判罪羁押青少年犯的问卷调查数据,将因子分析与回归分析方法相结合,进行了青少年法律意识与犯罪参与的关系研究,并建立了青少年犯罪的预警管理模型；第五部分重点研究了青少年犯罪预警管理模型的原理,运用文献资料和调查问卷构建并完善了青少年犯罪预警指标体系,建立了“个体性预警管理指标体系”、“区域性预警管理指标体系”和“全国性预警管理指标体系”3级预警指标体系；第六部分将多级层次分析模型、多级综合评价模型和灰色系统综合评价模型相结合,构建了青少年犯罪预警的量化分析模型；第七部分提出了青少年犯罪预警管理的长效机制,并从青少年的家庭保护与犯罪预警(重点为留守儿童问题、家庭暴力问题)、青少年的学校保护与犯罪预警(重点为中小学教师对学生的惩罚问题、素质教育问题)、青少年的社会保护与犯罪预警(重点为网络伤害问题、流浪儿童问题)和少年司法保护与犯罪预警(重点为少年司法制度的完善)4个方面提出了青少年犯罪预警的策略；第八部分对全文进行了总结,归纳了本文的主要创新点,并对青少年犯罪预警管理的后期研究进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Juveniles are the future of our nation and the hope of our people. Therefore the attention and the awareness given to juvenile delinquency and the research on preventing and decreasing juvenile delinquency are related not only to the juveniles’ future and family happiness but also to the national and social stabilities. Now, in the key period of reform and development of China, the adjustment of various benefit distribution patterns is continuously taking place and the deep social contradictions have been gradually evident. Social transformation has brought about rapid development of economy. Meanwhile, multi-idea, multi-culture and multi-value come along. Some unhealthy ideas have bad influence on Chinese juveniles, which results in the increasing number of juvenile delinquency and the occasional occurrence of major malignant events. What’s more, the tendency of younger age, violence-orientation, organized crime, adult criminal manners and multiple criminal means of juvenile delinquency is becoming more evident. All in all, the overall situation is quite severe. According to the current situation of juvenile delinquency in China, this dissertation has done the pertinent research by comprehensively adopting the theories and methods of such relevant disciplines as pedagogy, law, sociology, politics, management and psychology, etc. and by combining the multi-disciplinary academic frontiers. This dissertation consists of eight chapters:Chapter one makes clear the research background and the source of selected topics, specifies the research objectives and significance and determines the research contents and methodology based on the relevant research review both at home and abroad.Chapter two summarizes the relevant theories of juvenile delinquency both at home and abroad, clarifies the concepts of juveniles and juvenile delinquency and carding the early warning management theory and methodology.Chapter three mainly studies the present situation, categories, characteristics, forming reasons of juvenile delinquency. The author combines the graph theory with the path analysis technique of structural equation to analyze the evolution tendency and path of juvenile delinquency and finally constructs the evolution path analysis model of juvenile delinquency.Chapter four researches on the relation between juvenile legal awareness and criminal participation in combination with the data collected from the questionnaire investigation of the568juvenile offenders in city W. It also adopts the combined method of factor analysis and regression analysis to study the relation between juvenile legal awareness and crime participation and to establish juvenile delinquency early warning management model.Chapter five mainly studies the principles of juvenile delinquency early warning management model. It constructs and improves the index system of juvenile delinquency early warning management by using literature resources and questionnaires. It also constructs such three-level mechanism systems as individual early warning management index system, regional early warning management index system, and national early warning management index system.Chapter six combines the multi-level AHP model, the multi-level general evaluation model and the GRAP model to construct the quantitative analysis model of juvenile delinquency early warning.Chapter seven puts forward the long-term mechanism of juvenile delinquency early warning management. It elaborates the specific counter-measures from the following four aspects:family protection of juveniles and crime committing early warning (mainly about left-behind children problem, domestic violence), school protection of juveniles and crime committing early warning (mainly about problems that teachers of middle and primary schools punish their students and quality education), social protection of juveniles and crime committing early warning (mainly about network harm and the problem of homeless children), and teenager judicial protection and crime committing early warning (mainly about the perfection of teenager judicial system).Chapter eight concludes the whole dissertation and sums up the major innovative points and looks into the future research of early warning management of juvenile delinquency.更多还原