【作者】 牛佳棠；

【导师】 张世雄；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 农村公路作为我国公路网的重要组成部分,其建设管理越来越受到各级政府的高度重视。自2003年全国掀起建设农村公路建设高潮以来,经过近十年的不断建设,我国农村公路取得了前所未有的大发展。但是在农村公路不断增加里程的同时,由于早期实施“村村通油路”受通达标准限制,部分村道只通达至离村头500米处,又由于村内道路管理职责界定模糊,导致部分穿村道路未进行硬化,另外还受超载超限车辆绕行农村公路等因素影响,导致一大批农村公路农村公路出现了病害。为进一步加强对农村公路进行管理和养护,避免资源和资金的巨大浪费,必须建立一套科学、合理、客观的农村公路养护管理评价体系,找出养护管理工作存在的问题,科学有效地制定养护管理方案。本文科学运用系统工程、交通工程、运筹学、模糊数学等相关理论,从农村公路养护管理工作的实际出发,在广泛调研、科学分析的基础上,以建立科学合理的农村公路养护管理评价体系为出发点,紧密结合农村公路养护管理实际,主要进行了以下几方面的研究：(1)在广泛调研,深入分析的基础上,总结出目前农村公路养护管理工作中主要存在着评价理论不完善、评价手段落后以及评价与决策脱节,农村公路安全管理薄弱等问题；探寻出未来评价实践是以方法科学化、内容系统化、手段自动化为特征的评价与决策相统一的发展趋势。(2)构建了农村公路养护管理霍尔三维体系结构,并建立了包含目标层、准则层、指标层的三级农村公路养护管理评价指标体系；采用德尔菲法、层次分析法研究了指标权重计算,并通过与常用的广义函数法对比验证,提出了适合于农村公路养护管理的模糊综合评价计算方法。(3)依据枣庄市农村公路路面历史数据,通过对确定型预测模型、灰色预测模型对比分析,构建了适应枣庄市农村公路的路面使用性能灰色预测模型。(4)将养护管理预测结果和评价结果作为农村公路养护决策模型的参考指标,提出资金分配的多目标优化方法和养护决策排序方法,通过对不同的农村公路养护方案的效益分析和预测评估,建立了决策树模型对农村公路的养护管理方案进行优化。(5)通过对农村公路养护管理评价和养护决策的理论研究,开发了基于GIS的农村公路养护管理系统。本文研究有利于各级政府部门提高对农村公路养护管理工作的科学化、规范化、正常化水平,有利于保持农村公路的良好状况和安全畅通,有利于提高公路寿命、实现的资源和资金的合理配置。本文所做的理论研究具有创新性,所提出的农村公路养护管理评价、养护预测决策技术具有较高的推广价值,有较强的实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rural road network is taken constant attention by all levels of government as the important part of road network in China. The rural road has achieved unprecedented development since the construction of construction climax development in2003. With the rapid increase of rural road mileage, it lead to a large number of rural roads rural highways in the disease.due to the factors such as the early implementation of the "oil" coverage restricted by tongda standard, overloading transfinite vehicles around rural highways,It is an important issue that how to build a scientific sound and objective evaluation index system of the rural road maintenance management evaluation, to find out the problems and to set up a scientific and effective maintenance management plan for further management and maintenance, and huge waste of resources and capital.In this paper, traffic engineering, systems engineering, management, economics and other theories as a guide, to meet rural development needs of road maintenance management evaluation for the purpose of extensive research, scientific analysis, based on close integration of rural road maintenance management practice, through systematic study, obtained the following results:(1) Extensive research, in-depth analysis based on the summed up the current evaluation of rural road maintenance and management of the main theories exist imperfect evaluation, assessment and evaluation backward out of touch with issues such as decision-making; to explore the future is a method of evaluation practice scientific, systematic content, characterized by means of evaluation and decision automation unity trends.(2) It establishes a goal, rule, index layer3Rural Road Maintenance Management Hall three-dimensionalEvaluation Index System; using the Delphi method, nine of the scaling law index weight calculation, and with the commonly used generalized function contrast testing, the proposed road maintenance in rural areas to adapt to the characteristics of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation calculation.(3) Based on the rural road surface in Zaozhuang City, historical data, forecast model by determining the type, gray prediction model analyzed, built to adapt to the rural road gray pavement performance prediction model.(4) Conservation and management of evaluation results and evalution results as a reference index of the rural highway maintenance decision-making model should be taken into account, decision-making model. It puts forward a multi-objective optimization method of fund allocation and decision-making method, based on different rural road maintenance plan assessment and prediction of benefit analysis of decision tree model, establishes for rural highway maintenance management scheme optimization.(5) In conjunction with rural road maintenance management evaluation system of research, development of GIS-based evaluation system for rural road maintenance management.This paper is helpful to improve the scientification, standardization and normalization of rural road maintenance management all levels of government, beneficial to keep clear of rural roads in good condition and safety, and conducive to the integration of evaluation and decision, realize the rational allocation of resources and capital. Evaluation index system of comprehensive and applies to a wide range of scientific visual evaluation results may be feasible, practical research and promotion of high value.更多还原