【作者】 王福林；

【导师】 王恕立；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 产业经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 水资源是衡量一个国家综合国力的定性指标,缺水已经成为世界性问题,水危机已严重制约着中国国民经济的进一步发展,基于可持续发展的水资源合理配置已成为一种必然的选择。本论文运用多目标规划分析法、关联度分析法、数理模型分析法、理论分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合方法研究基于可持续发展的水资源合理配置。本论文的研究目的在于运用水资源产业理论、经济学理论、水资源配置理论和可持续发展理论相关原理和方法阐述水资源供需分析原理,构建水资源合理配置模型,建立基于EWS系统的复合水资源配置系统,揭示水资源合理配置机理,并运用实证分析验证水资源配置模型和配置机理的合理性和可操作性,提出水资源合理配置的保障措施,寻求解决或缓解越来越严重的区域水资源危机的有效途径,寻找一种新的水资源配置观念和发展模式,以解决制约区域国民经济发展的缺水问题。本论文主要创新点表现在：(1)本论文利用灰色关联度与倍差法从定性和定量两个方面分析一个城市已有水源工程对经济、社会效益的贡献度。本论文建立了水资源合理配置的非线性一逻辑自回归耦合预测模型,提高了城市需水预测精度,探索了一条理论与实践,定量与定性相结合的研究新路。(2)构建区域经济—水资源—社会复合(EWS)系统,全面剖析了经济、社会、水资源系统间及系统内部传动规律,并得出水资源供给充足与否会影响社会、经济发展,并能对水资源系统本身的持续发展产生联动影响的结论。本论文构建的区间多目标非线性水资源合理配置模型,突破了以往对水资源配置研究视角单一的不足。(3)本论文主要运用经济学原理、管理学原理解决水利学科与社会经济发展领域的实际问题。在可持续发展视角下,从社会合理性、经济合理性、生态合理性、效率合理性、开发合理性五个方面构建区域水资源配置评价体系。(4)本论文构建了基于水资源合理配置的区域产业结构动态演化模型,以帮助相关区域形成水资源利用效率高、有优势的主导产业为核心构筑起的各产业相互协调的产业体系,形成“优势互补,专业化分工协作”的产业发展格局。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resource is a qualitative index of a national comprehensive power, water shortage has become a worldwide problem, water crisis has seriously hindered the further development of China national economy, rational allocation of water resource based on sustainable development has become a kind of necessary choice.This paper makes a research on rational allocation of water resource based on sustainable development by using multiple-objective planning analysis, correlation analysis method, mathematical model analysis, theoretical analysis combined empirical analysis, qualitative analysis combined quantitative analysis method.The research purposes of this paper is to elaborate supply-demand analysis theory, build ration allocation model of water resource, build compound allocation system of water resource based on EWS system, reveal the rational allocation mechanism of water resource by using industry theory of water resource, economy theory, water resource allocation theory and sustainable development theory and their principle and methods. The purpose is to verify the rationality and operability both of water resource allocation model and mechanism, to put forward safeguard measures of water resource rational allocation, to seek to resolve or alleviate effective ways of regional water resource crisis which is becoming more and more serious, to seek a new idea and model of water resource allocation to resolve water shortage issue which has hindered the national economy development.The creative ideas of this paper include:(1) This paper analyzes the contribution rate of existing water projections of a certain city to economy and social effects from both aspects of quantitative and qualitative analysis by using gray correlation and difference in difference methods for the first time. This paper sets up the nonlinear-logic autoregressive coupling prediction model of the rational allocation of water resources for the first time, to improve the urban prediction accurate rate of water demand and explores a new way for water resource allocation by using theory to guideline practice and by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis.(2) This paper sets up a regional EWS system makes a comprehensive analysis on external and internal transmission rules among economy-society-water resource, and draws a conclusion that the water supply enough or not will affect social, economic development, and has a linked influence on the sustainable development of water resource system itself. The establishment of interval multi-objective nonlinear optimal allocation model of water resource allocation in this paper breaks through the shortcoming of allocation research of water resource from a single perspective.(3) This paper mainly resolves the practical problems in water conservancy science and social economic development by using principles and methods of economy and management science, from the perspective of sustainable development, build up regional water resource allocation evaluation system from the following five aspects such as social rationality, economic rationality, ecological rationality, efficiency rationality and development rationality. This paper explores forming mechanism of regional water resource allocation under the circumstance of considering multi-objectives, multi-factors and its constraint conditions. This paper puts forward water resource allocation planning covering the cities, county, town and general important township in Liaoning province and safeguard water utility for sectors and departments of regional national economy.(4) This paper constructs Dynamic Evolution Model of the Regional Industrial Structure Based on the Optimized Allocation of Water Resources. To help related region to form a mutual coordination of industry system with high utilization of water resources and advantaged leading industries as a core, form a development pattern of industry characterized with " complementary of advantages and cooperation of division of labor"更多还原