中国战略性新兴产业发展研究

【作者】 李勃昕；

【导师】 周新生； 惠宁；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 产业经济与投资， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 后金融危机背景下,我国经济发展面临产业结构升级和经济增长方式转变的双重压力,战略性新兴产业具有显著的科技创新性和战略发展潜力,是我国产业结构升级和实现经济增长内生化的必然选择,研究战略性新兴产业发展有着重要的理论意义和现实价值。本文通过文献研究总结战略性新兴产业的内涵、特征及分类,从国家视角、地方视角以及产业演进视角梳理战略性新兴产业发展的相关理论；理论结合实际,分析我国战略性新兴产业发展现状,指出我国战略性新兴产业发展中存在评价不清、选择盲目、经验欠缺和路径不明等问题；将战略性新兴产业发展系统作为研究对象,以国家、地方与战略性新兴产业发展之间的逻辑关系为线索搭建研究理论分析框架；运用主观分析与客观评价、系统集成与分解、比较分析、归纳与仿真、计量分析等方法,建立战略性新兴产业的评价体系,研究战略性新兴产业的选择与布局,分析战略性新兴产业发展的系统运行逻辑；最后提出政策建议,为促进战略性新兴产业健康发展提供理论参考和实践指导。通过剖析战略性新兴产业评价的国家意志、战略性新兴产业选择的地方主导性以及战略性新兴产业发展的系统性,揭示了战略性新兴产业发展是国家、地方、产业三者联动的系统行为,由此构建了以国家层级的战略性新兴产业评价体系、地方层级的战略性新兴产业选择与布局、产业层级的战略性新兴产业发展系统分析为主体的研究逻辑框架。首先,从战略性新兴产业发展的国家意志出发,解析战略性新兴产业的“空间战略性”和“时间新兴性”,构建基于AHP的时空双维度战略性新兴产业评价体系,并以纺织产业、电子信息产业、新能源汽车产业做例证分析。其次,从地方视角出发,认为战略性新兴产业选择和布局要充分考虑地方产业发展条件和地区间的竞争优势对比,由此构建战略性新兴产业选择测度的灰度关联模型,以新能源汽车产业为例,实证分析战略性新兴产业的科学选择与合理布局。再次,从产业层面分析战略性新兴产业发展的系统集成与分解,建立战略性新兴产业发展的系统动力学模型,以电子信息产业为例,实证研究战略性新兴产业发展的影响因素及系统运行逻辑,政策实验结果显示,战略性新兴产业发展是一个多因素影响的动态系统,企业创新投入作为内在要素对系统发展的影响最为明显,OLS估计和VAR模型进一步验证了这一结论,由此提出,坚持自主创新是促进战略性新兴产业长期健康发展的有效路径。最后,提出基于非线性生命周期的战略性新兴产业发展政策建议：产业孕育期注重刺激创新和鼓励保护；产业成长期要逐步提高战略性新兴产业的自主发展能力；产业成熟期则以推动产业结构升级和经济增长方式转变为主要目的。本文研究的主要结论包括：第一,战略性新兴产业发展充分反映了国家、地方与产业之间的逻辑关系,是一个多主体、多要素相互影响的系统融合过程,研究战略性新兴产业发展要注重系统性和动态性；第二,战略性新兴产业发展具有鲜明的国家意志,战略性新兴产业评价要以国家产业发展战略意图为基础,突出战略性新兴产业的“战略性”和“新兴性”的双重特质;第三,战略性新兴产业选择布局要兼顾地方产业发展基础和区域间产业竞争优势对比,在选择耦合度较高、发展优势较为明显的地区发挥战略性新兴产业的带头作用；选择耦合度适中的地区可作为战略性新兴产业发展的储备力量；选择耦合度较低、现实基础较为薄弱的地区要谨慎践行；第四,战略性新兴产业发展是一个多因素影响下的系统运行过程,加快战略性新兴产业发展要遵循其内在逻辑,以促进系统协调发展为主,外部影响为辅,政策溺爱和大赶快上容易造成虚假繁荣,不利于战略性新兴产业长期发展；第五,技术引进和技术模仿是战略性新兴产业创新发展的短期有效因素,自主创新投入是推动战略性新兴产业长期健康发展的显著因素,由此认为,坚持自主创新,提高产业技术水平是加快战略性新兴产业发展的有效路径；第六,战略性新兴产业发展有着特殊的内在逻辑和外部特征,设计战略性新兴产业发展政策支撑体系要充分考虑其非线性生命周期特征,以差异性的政策影响支撑战略性新兴产业健康持续发展。研究的创新之处首先在于构建了从国家层级的战略性新兴产业评价体系,到地方层级的战略性新兴产业选择与布局,再到产业层级的战略性新兴产业发展系统运行分析的研究逻辑框架,体现出国家、地方、产业三者联动的研究视角。其次,在这一框架下,提出时空双维度的战略性新兴产业评价思路,建立了基于AHP的时空双维度评价体系,为战略性新兴产业评价与界定提供依据；基于灰度关联理论构建了战略性新兴产业地方选择耦合度测度模型,为战略性新兴产业的科学选择和合理布局提供参考,突破了地方单一视角的局限；将战略性新兴产业发展置于一个多主体、多因素影响的动态系统中,在动态视角下研究战略性新兴产业发展轨迹及系统运行逻辑。最后,基于战略性新兴产业的非线性生命周期特征,结合差异性的多样化政策,构建战略性新兴产业发展的政策支撑体系,突出了产业发展和政策结合的立体性和动态性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the context of the post-financial crisis era, China economic development faces the dual pressure of industrial structure upgrading and economic developing mode converting, with the characters of technology innovation and strategic development potential, strategic emerging industries are the inevitable choice of industrial structure upgrading and economic endogenous developing, studying strategic emerging industries development has significant theoretical consequences and practical value. This paper presented the connotation, characters and category of strategic emerging industries based on literatures researching, and analyzed relative theories of strategic emerging industries development from the national views, regional government views and industrial views. Combining theory with practice, strategic emerging industries development status was analyzed to propose strategic emerging industries development problems:vague definition, irrational choice, deficient experience and disorder development. With the study object of strategic emerging industries development, the analytical framework was constructed based on the relationship analysis of central government, regional government and strategic emerging industries. With the research methods of subjective analysis and objective evaluation, system integration and decomposition, comparative analysis, induct and simulation, statistics analysis, this paper built the strategic emerging industrial evaluation system, studied the choice and layout of strategic emerging industries, analyzed the system operation logic of strategic emerging industries development, proposed policy suggestions, which provided theoretical reference and practical guidance for strategic emerging industries development.With the analysis of national intent of strategic emerging industries evaluation, regional dominant on strategic emerging industries selecting, and the systematicness of strategic emerging industries development, this paper revealed that strategic emerging industries development was system behavior linked with central government, regional government and industries themselves. Thus, the study logical framework was constructed with the main components of strategic emerging industrial evaluation system on central government level, strategic emerging industries choice and layout on regional government level, and strategic emerging industries development system analysis on industrial level. Firstly, the paper analyzed the "strategic space" and "emerging time" characters of strategic emerging industries from national intent, established the strategic emerging industries evaluation system with time-space dimensions based on AHP, evaluation exemplification was made with textile industry, IT industry, new energy automobile industry. Secondly, strategic emerging industries choice and layout should be considered with regional industrial development condition and regional competitive advantages analysis from regional view, the strategic emerging industries choice evaluation gray model was established, and the empirical study of strategic emerging industries choice and layout was made from the example of new energy automobile. Thirdly, the paper analyzed the strategic emerging industries development system integration and decomposition from industrial level, built strategic emerging industries developing system dynastic model, studied the influential factors and operation logic of strategic emerging industries development system based on empirical study of IT industry, the policy experiments results revealed that strategic emerging industries development is system dynamic behavior affected by multi-factors, as inner influential factor, enterprise innovation invest is the most significant factor for system development, which was proved by OLS estimation and VAR model, therefor, the effective way to accelerate strategic emerging industries healthy developing is strengthening independent innovation. Consequently, the strategic emerging industries development policy suggestions were proposed according to its nonlinear development life cycle:innovation stimulation and encourages were emphasized in incubation period, enhancing the independent development ability gradually in growing period, making impetus to industrial structure upgrading and economic development mode converting in mature period.The main conclusions include six items. First, strategic emerging industries development presents the logic relationships among central government, regional government and industries, which is system operation with multi-agents and multi-factors, strategic emerging industries development study should emphasize on its systematicness and dynamics. Second, strong national intent is linked with strategic emerging industries development, strategic emerging industries evaluation should be considered with national strategic intent, and underline the dual character of strategic and emerging. Third, strategic emerging industries choice and layout should consider the regional industrial development condition and regional competitive advantages analysis, the strategic emerging industries should be cultivated prior in the provinces with high selection coupling degrees and advantages, the middle selection coupling degrees provinces should be the reserves, while the low selection coupling degrees provinces with disadvantages should make prudent choice. Fourth, the strategic emerging industries development is the system behavior driven by multi-factors, accelerating strategic emerging industries developing should obey its inner logic, coordinate the system factors developing prior, and make external influence as supplement. Fifth, technology import and technology imitation are the short term effective factors for strategic emerging industries innovation and development, independent innovation invest is the significant factor for strategic emerging industries developing, accordingly, strengthening independent innovation, enhancing technical level is the effective way to accelerate strategic emerging industries developing. Sixth, strategic emerging industries development has its specific inner logic and external characters, strategic emerging industries development policy support system constructing should obey its nonlinear development life cycle, policies with differences are effective to promote sustained and healthy development of strategic emerging industries.The study innovation ideas are comprised of the follow aspects. Firstly, this paper constructed the study logical framework with main components of strategic emerging industrial evaluation system on central government level, strategic emerging industries choice and layout on regional government level, and strategic emerging industries development system analysis on industrial level, which provides study view with the linkage of the national, regional and industrial parts. Secondly, under the study logical framework, the strategic emerging industries evaluation system was established with the time-space dual dimensions evaluation idea based on AHP, what is meaningful to strategic emerging industries evaluation; the strategic emerging industries regional choice evaluation model was established based on gray theory, which is valuable reference for emerging industries regional choice and layout, it broke the regional single view limit; emerging industries development was put in a dynamic system with multi-agents and multi-factors, the system operation logic and development trace of strategic emerging industries were studied under the dynamic perspective. Thirdly, according to the nonlinear development life cycle of strategic emerging industries, combined with differential and multiple policies, policies support system was proposed, which reflected stereoscopic and dynamic policies support to strategic emerging industries development.更多还原