【作者】 王薇；

【导师】 冯永军；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 土壤学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 水是生命之源、土是生存之本,水土资源是自然资源最重要的组成部分,是人类赖以生存和发展的最基本的物质基础,是生态系统中最活跃、影响最广泛的因素,但又是有限的自然资源。黄河三角洲是最具开发潜力的大河三角洲,土地资源优势突出、地理区位条件优越、自然资源较为丰富。近年来,黄河三角洲地区石油大量开采、油田气大规模开发、黄河流量减少、工农业盲目开发等给当地水土资源及生态环境造成了很大影响,造成当地水资源供需矛盾突出、水体污染、土地盐渍化程度高、土壤污染严重、生物多样性减少,使该地区的经济发展与水土资源可持续利用的矛盾日益突出。本论文围绕“区域水土资源分析和承载力综合评价”这个主题,以可持续发展观为指导思想,以实现水土资源可持续利用、社会经济可持续发展为目标,对水土资源承载力评价的基础理论、方法进行深入研究与探讨；以黄河三角洲为地域依托,选取东营市作为研究区域,基于统计数据、TM影像为信息源,分析黄河三角洲水土资源时空动态变化规律；采用区域水土资源匹配测算模型,计算黄河三角洲水土资源匹配系数,分析匹配程度；从水资源系统、土地资源系统、社会经济系统、生态环境系统四方面出发,选取30个指标构建可操作的黄河三角洲水土资源承载力评价体系；运用基于粒子群优化算法的投影寻踪评价模型(PSO-PPE模型),进行黄河三角洲水土资源承载力综合评价,利用ArcGIS9.3的可视化功能,实现水土资源承载力等级空间分布的绘制,直观呈现黄河三角洲水土资源承载力的区域差异；通过“指标贡献度”“指标偏离度”和“障碍度”诊断,揭示影响承载力的关键障碍因素,提出黄河三角洲水土资源的可持续利用对策。主要研究内容与结果如下：(1)总结了国内外水土资源承载力研究的理论和方法在参考国内外大量文献的基础上,进一步明确了可持续发展、承载力、水资源承载力、土地资源承载力、水土资源承载力的概念与内涵；分析了水资源承载力、土地资源承载力、水土资源承载力的主要评价指标及其评价方法；阐述了水土资源承载力与可持续利用之间关系。(2)摸清了黄河三角洲水土资源时空变化特征在对黄河三角洲地区水资源、水环境等调研基础上,采用有效识别方法,选取降水量、潜在蒸发量、径流量3个主要指标,定量分析了近50年来,东营市及各区县水资源多时间、多空间尺度水文要素的演变特征；在“3S”技术支持下,以TM影像为信息源,把东营市土地利用类型分为8类,采用转移矩阵法、景观指数法,研究了该区域1992-2010年间土地利用结构变化及景观格局变化,摸清了黄河三角洲地区土地资源利用时空变化特征。结果表明：土地景观多样性指数1992-2010年由1.6109下降到1.5946,说明各斑块类型在景观中分布呈均衡化趋势减弱；土地景观均匀度指数1992—2010年由0.7747下降0.7669,说明该区均匀度指数较低,景观为少数几种土地类型所控制。(3)揭示了黄河三角洲水土资源空间匹配格局经过对黄河三角洲水、土资源构成及其利用分析得出,该区域水土资源总体呈现出“土地资源丰富,水资源缺乏”的态势；从水土资源总量上来看,该区域耕地面积约占山东省的2.94%,而其水资源量仅占山东省的2.03%；从水土资源平均水平来看,该区域人均耕地面积0.119hm~2/人,接近山东人均耕地面积,而人均水资源量为333m~3/人,不足全国平均水平的1/6,地均水资源量为777m3/hm~2,不足全国平均水平的1/3,是山东省平均水平的40.29%。研究区整体水土资源匹配系数为0.19万m~3/hm~2,远远低于全国平均水平。在此基础上,从水资源与耕地资源的匹配角度,以单位面积水资源量和垦殖率为度量指标,分析黄河三角洲水土资源空间分布的差异；构建区域水土资源匹配测算模型,计算黄河三角洲地区水土资源匹配系数,定量的描述水土资源的空间匹配程度。结果表明：东营市水土资源匹配系数为0.19万m~3/hm~2,低于山东省平均水平0.30万m~3/hm~2,更远远低于全国平均水平1.72万m~3/hm~2,东营市各区县水土资源匹配系数利津县最低0.07万m~3/km~2,广饶县最高0.42万m~3/km~2,相差达到0.35万m~3/km~2。研究区水土资源匹配程度总体呈现出“南高、北次之、中间低”的格局,匹配程度较差和极差地区数量占东营市区县总数的一半以上。水资源短缺、利用率低是导致黄河三角洲水资源短缺、水土资源空间匹配程度差的主要限制因子。(4)构建了黄河三角洲水土资源承载力评价指标体系在借鉴国内外现有水土资源承载力评价指标的基础上,结合黄河三角洲的实际,提出该区域水土资源承载力评价指标选取的基本原则；从系统论的角度出发,选取了既能准确表达承载力的大小,又能反映水土资源系统、社会经济系统、生态环境系统内部变化对承载力影响的30个指标,构建了操作性强的黄河三角洲水土资源承载力评价指标体系；根据评价指标对承载力影响的程度,确定指标分级标准,将其分为极高、较高、中等、较低、极低5个等级；并分别从水资源承载能力和社会经济发展对水资源的压力角度,将水资源承载力同样划分为5个等级。(5)综合评价了黄河三角洲水土资源承载力采用基于粒子群优化算法的投影寻踪评价模型(PSO-PPE模型),对黄河三角洲水土资源承载力进行综合评价和区域差异分析。经计算,东营市、东营区、河口区、垦利县、利津县、广饶县水资源承载力综合评价投影值分别为：3.004、3.247、2.156、2.708、1.859、2.002。评价结果表明：2010年黄河三角洲整个研究区、区划内的东营区、垦利县的水土资源承载力处于Ⅲ级,水土资源承载力中等,水土资源开发利用和社会经济发展处于协调状态；河口区、利津县、广饶县水土资源承载力处于Ⅳ级,水土资源承载力弱压力状态,水土资源承载力处于较低的水平,在现有的条件下水资源继续开发的潜力相对较小,水土资源供需矛盾突出。(6)提出了黄河三角洲水土资源可持续利用对策引入“指标贡献度”、“指标偏离度”和“障碍度”,进行水土资源综合承载力的障碍诊断,找出真正制约经济社会发展的限制因素：水资源开发利用率、客水利用率、未利用地率、单方水总产值、人均GDP。根据诊断结果,有针对性地从资源性、结构性、技术性三方面入手,在宏观和微观两个层面上,构建了提高该区域水土资源承载力的措施体系和调控模式,提出了黄河三角洲水土资源可持续利用对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is origin of life, soil is root of the survival. Water and soil resources, the most basic material conditions for human’s survival and develop are the most active factor and influence widely in ecological environment system, and are also finite limited natural resources. As an important reserve land resource area in Shandong Province, Yellow River delta is one of important areas for the total dynamic balance of cultivated land and increasing cultivated area. However, the shortage of water resources in this area is an increasingly serious problem. In recent years, large amount of oil extraction, large-scale development of oil field, the reduced flow of Yellow River and the blind industry and agriculture development have had the very tremendous influence to local soil and water resources and environment such as water pollution, the high degree of soil salinization, the serious soil pollution, the degradation of the wetland function, the decreasing biodiversity, etc.Focusing on the subject "Water-soil resources carrying capacity comprehensive evaluation" and based on the principle of sustainable development theory, this dissertation aimed at the substantial and efficient utilization of resources and sustainable economic and social development, and the basic theory and methods were investigated and discussed. By virtue of Yellow River Delta, we chose Dongying as research region and analyzed the dynamic changing regularity of water-soil resources in Yellow River Delta using statistics and TM images as information sources. We constructed the matching degree measure model of regional water-land resources and calculated the matching coefficient of resources in Yellow River Delta and dividing matching degree. Then, we selected30indicators from four aspects including water resources system, soil resources system, socioeconomic system and ecological environment system to establish an index system of water and soil resources carrying capacity in Yellow River Delta. And then, We utilizing the pursuit evaluation model based on particle swarm optimization(PSO-PPE) to comprehensively evaluate the water and soil resources carrying capacity and to analyze the regional difference. Finally, based on the analysis of the affecting factors of carrying capacity, we putting forward countermeasures for sustainable utilization of water and soil resources.The main contents and conclusions are as follow:(1) The conclusion of the theory and method system for water-soil resources carrying capacity research at home and abroad With referencing to a large number of domestic and international papers in the field, we determined the definition of water resources carrying capacity and soil resources carrying capacity. Then, we analyzed the intension of water-soil resources carrying capacity, and then discussed the features and influence factors of the carrying capacity. Meanwhile we detailed the overview of sustainable use, the definition and intension of sustainable development, the formation of sustainable development view and the relationship between sustainable use and water-soil resources carrying capacity.(2) The clarifying of space-time variation of water-soil resources in Yellow River DeltaBased on the survey of water resources and water environment in Yellow River Delta, we applied effective recognition method and chose three main indicators including precipitation, potential evaporation, runoff to analyze qualitatively the evolution characters of spatial and temporal multiple scale hydrological factors in Dongying and its district and county in recent50years. Based on remote sensing data of soil resources,3S technology and TM image information sources, we employed transfer matrix method and landscape index to study the change of land mass and landscape pattern in1992-2010, and based on that, space-time variations of land use types in Yellow River Delta were analyzed.(3) The analysis of space matching pattern of water-soil resources in Yellow River DeltaWith the analysis of water-soil resource structure and its utilization in Yellow River Delta, we draw an conclusion that soil resource is rich and water resource is scarce. From the one aspect of water-soil resource total quantity, the cultivated area covers2.94%of total cultivated area in Shandong province and water resources orily covers2.03%. From the other aspect of the average level, per capita cultivated land is0.119hm2/person which is near the per capita in Shandong province. But per capita water resource is333m3/person which is less than one-sixth of the national average, and per area water resource is777m3/hm2which is less than one-third of the national average and is40.29%of the Shandong average. On that basis, in view of matching between water resource and cultivated area, we built the regional water and soil resource matching measure model and calculated water-soil resource matching coefficient in Yellow River Delta and describe quantitatively the spatial matching degree of water and soil resource. The results show that the water-soil resource matching coefficient in Yellow River Delta is0.19×104m3/hm2which is far higher than the national average. There are greater regional difference among two counties and three districts in our research, of those, Lijin County is0.07×104m3/hm2which is the lowest one and Guangrao County is0.42×104m3/hm2which is the highest. (4) The construction of an evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Yellow River DeltaFirst, based on the water-soil resources carrying capacity research at home and abroad, we combined with the actual situation of Yellow River Delta and proposed the basic principle for choosing evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity in this area. Then, from the viewpoint of the theory of system, i.e. regarding social and economic development, ecology and environment, water and soil resources as a complex system, we chose thirty index to establish the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Yellow River Delta. Finally, according to the degree to which evaluation index affect carrying capacity, we determined classification standards of indicators including five levels such as highest, higher, middle, lower and lowest and classified as five levels in the view of water resource carrying capacity and the pressure that social and economic development throws at water resource.(5) The comprehensive evaluation of water and soil resource carrying capacity in Yellow River Delta.We made a comprehensive evaluation for water and soil resource carrying capacity and analyzed regional differences in Yellow River Delta utilizing PSO-PPE. Then we got the comprehensive evaluation rank of the study area and its each part. The results in2010show that the water resources carrying capacity of Dongying district and Kenli County is medium and level III which the development of water resources and social economy is in coordination state, Hekou district, Lijin County and Guangrao County is lower and level IV.(6) The countermeasure put forward of water and soil resources sustainable utilization in Yellow River Delta.With the introduction of indicators contribution, indicators deviation and obstacle degree, We realized the obstacle diagnosis of water and soil resources comprehensive carrying capacity and found out the limited factors which restrict social and economic development including water resources development and utilization, unused land ratio, total output per cubic meter water and per capita GDP. According to the diagnostic results, we started with many factors including resource, structural, economic, technical, manageable, etc. Then, we built the measure system and control model for improving the water and soil resources carrying capacity both at the macro-level and at the micro-level. It can provide guidance for effective utilization of water and soil resources, provide matching decision evidences for governments, make the effective utilization of water and soil resources produce overall bigger benefits, meet the need of the sustainable development of economy and society.更多还原