【作者】 张凤娟；

【导师】 史建民；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 中国是世界家禽生产、消费大国，家禽出口贸易的发展对于解决三农问题具有重要意义。然而自加入WTO以来，中国家禽出口发展缓慢，在世界家禽市场中出口地位日益下降。本文以经典国际贸易理论和竞争优势理论为基础，采用统计描述、比较分析和计量分析等方法研究了中国家禽出口贸易基本状况、演变规律及影响因素，并提出优化出口贸易结构、提高中国家禽产业竞争优势的对策建议。主要研究内容和结论如下：首先采用统计描述和贸易指数测定法对中国家禽出口贸易格局进行实证分析。研究表明：中国家禽产品出口规模小，出口比例较低，出口波动性强；在世界出口市场中地位日益下降；出口产品以禽肉及制品为主，羽绒羽毛类产品为辅，禽蛋类产品出口较少，主要出口产品种类与世界主要进口需求种类的匹配性较差；中国家禽产品75%出口到亚洲，前四大市场分别是日本、香港、美国、欧盟，合计占出口总额85%以上。无论从增长率还是从绝对份额上看，中国家禽产品出口市场与世界进口市场的匹配性程度都处于极低的水平。上述研究揭示出中国家禽出口贸易格局总体特征：规模较小而波动性强、出口结构过于集中、与世界进口需求的配性水平较低，贸易结构不合理。基于中国家禽出口规模小而波动性强的特征，运用基于恒定市场份额模型对其出口变动的主要影响因素进行总体分析。研究表明：影响中国家禽出口的主要因素是进口需求效应、出口竞争力效应、贸易结构效应。其中进口需求是出口增长的主导力量，而出口竞争力效应和贸易结构效应在多数时期制约着出口贸易增长，并且制约程度逐步增强。因此，分别针对上述三效应对中国家禽出口影响因素进行深入分析。采用贸易指数测定和定性分析法对中国家禽产品出口竞争力及影响因素进行研究。研究表明：中国家禽产品出口竞争力不断下降，整体竞争力低于美国、巴西和泰国。出口竞争力下降直接原因是产品质量安全达不到进口国要求，同时出口价格优势逐步消失；深层次原因是中国家禽产业整体竞争优势不强。运用相关系数法和地区方差分解模型对中国家禽出口市场集中与出口不稳定性之间关系进行计量分析，结果表明两者具有一定的正向相关关系，扩大出口范围在一定程度上能够降低出口不稳定。基于中国家禽出口引力模型的计量分析表明影响家禽出口市场结构的因素依次是：空间距离、拥有共同边界、APEC制度安排、WTO制度安排、中国畜牧业产值、进口国经济规模、双方人均收入绝对差距。采用相关系数、协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验法对世界进口需求与中国家禽出口之间关系进行计量分析。结果表明：世界进口需求与中国家禽出口具有因果关系，长期内，世界进口额每增长1%，中国家禽产品出口额就会相应的增长0.554%。充分利用世界家禽进口需求空间和增长潜力，中国应重点以最具吸引力和吸引力较大国家为目标市场，加大市场研究和市场开拓力度。基于上述研究提出：要促进中国家禽出口贸易的稳定发展，必须以培育家禽产业整体竞争优势为核心；以世界进口需求为导向，优化家禽出口产品结构和出口市场结构，提高产品出口竞争力。政府要加强国内支持和出口促进政策力度，建立健全家禽产品质量标准、检测检验体系、强化质量安全管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is one of the countries which have a big poultry output and consumption in theworld. The poultry export trade plays an important role in Agriculture, Countryside andPeasantry of China. But, since China entered into world trade organization (WTO), we arefacing with a slower developing and a more drastic fluctuating situation of poultry exporttrade, which led to Chinese poultry declining in the world. The export trade pattern wascritical to export growth and export benefits, and it was very important to study the pattern,succession and influencing factors of Chinese poultry products export trade, which will behelpful to find some strategies to promote and stimulate poultry export trade and to maintainstable export growth of poultry products. So, based on the theory of classic international tradeand competition superiority, using multiple methods such as statistical description,comparative analysis, quantitative analysis, this dissertation focused on the pattern,succession and influence factors of Chinese poultry products export trade, and suggestedsome countermeasures optimizing the pattern of poultry export trade so as to enhance thedevelopment of Chinese poultry products export trade.Using statistic description and trade index method to analyze the pattern of Chinesepoultry export trade, the result showed some specific characteristics of Chinese poultryproducts export trade such as slow increase of trade volume, small ratio of export productsand drastic export fluctuation. For the time being, the status of China appeared declining inthe poultry products export market of all over the world. And the export trade of poultryfocused on fowl and its products, while leather and eggs occupied a smaller ratio. This patternwas unmatched with that of import products in the world. the75percent share of Chinesepoultry products was in Asia, and the top four were Japan，Hongkong, USA, EU, whichcovered85percent of export volume. Both increase rate and absolute market share showed avery bad matching of Chinese poultry main export market with the world poultry main importmarket. All above results revealed the general characteristics of Chinese poultry export tradepattern, that was small scale, drastic fluctuation, concentrated export structure, bad matchingwith world import and unreasonable trade structure.Based on the characteristics of Chinese poultry export trade, using Constant MarketShare Model (CMS model) to analyze the principal factors affecting the fluctuation of poultryexport trade, the results showed that the principal factors affecting the fluctuation of Chinesepoultry export trade were import-demanding effect, export-competitive effect and tradestructure effect. Of all three factors, import-demanding was the leading force of export increase, while export-competition and trade structure would limit the increase of export tradein most periods. So, it was essential to take a further analysis and clarify how those threeeffects affected the Chinese poultry products export trade.Using trade indices calculation and qualitative analysis to study the internationalcompetitiveness and its affecting factors of Chinese poultry products export trade, the resultsshowed that Chinese competitiveness in poultry products were decreasing over time and itstotal competitiveness was significantly lower than that of U.S.A, Brazil and Thailand. Thedirect reason of international competitiveness decreasing was that the quality of exportedproducts couldn’t meet the quality requirement of import country and also the dominance ofexport price was disappearing. However, the deeper reason was that the competitiveadvantage of Chinese poultry industry was still not strong enough.Using correlation coefficient and region variance decomposition model to analyze therelationship between the export market concentration and export instability of Chinese poultryproducts, the results showed that there was positive relationship between them and it wouldbe helpful to decrease export instability through exploring export range. The quantitativeanalysis based on gravity model of Chinese poultry export indicated that the factors affectingChinese poultry export market structure were in such orders as spatial distance, commonboundary, APEC regime arrangement, WTO regime arrangement, output value of Chineseanimal husbandry, economic scale of importing country and absolute difference per capita ofboth sides.Using correlation coefficient, cointergration theory and Granger causality test methods toquantitatively analyze the relationship between world import demand and Chinese exporttrade of poultry products, the results showed that there is cause-effect relationship betweenthem. During a long time period, as long as there is1percent increase of world importvolume, there will be0.554percent corresponding increase of Chinese export volume. So,China should fully utilize the import demand space and increase potential of world poultrymarket and consider the most attractive countries as target markets, strengthen the marketinvestigation and market explore.Based on all above results, this dissertation suggested some countermeasures to keep thenormal development of Chinese poultry export trade. Firstly, to tap the total competitiveadvantage should be regarded as the core of Chinese poultry industry. Secondly, aiming atworld import demand should be main direction, and the products structure and marketstructure of poultry export should be optimized to improve the international competitivenessof export products. Thirdly, government should strengthen the regime establishment of domestic support and export stimulation, improve quality standard and inspection system ofpoultry products to consolidate the management of quality safety.更多还原