【作者】 祝秀芝；

【导师】 李宪文；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 土地资源利用， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 上海市作为中华人民共和国直辖市和国家中心城市，是国务院定位的国家三大综合性门户城市。在人口规模迅速膨胀、经济的飞速发展的同时,水资源、土地资源和生态环境对城市经济社会可持续发展的约束作用更趋紧张。要实现区域的可持续发展,须达到人口、经济与资源、环境之间的相互协调。因此,上海市的人口与资源环境是否相适应,已成为上海市未来可持续发展的一个重要前提条件。本文以上海市土地综合承载力为研究对象，综合运用单指标短板评价理论和基于系统动力学的综合评价，构建了较为完整的评价体系；并对近十年上海市土地综合承载力进行分析，找出其关键制约；在此基础上，以五种不同发展情景模拟上海市未来发展方向，分析每种发展情景的利弊，为上海市制定发展目前提供依据。论文主要内容及结论包括：在完备性、系统性、综合性、可操作性及区域差异性原则的指导下，分析了土地资源承载力、水资源承载力、生态环境承载力及地质环境承载力4类几十个指标的含义及重要性，筛选出人均建设用地、建筑容积率、工业用地比例、人均住房建筑面积、人均耕地面积、人均可用水资源量、万元工业增加值耗水量、工业废水排放达标率、人均公共绿地面积、空气质量优良率和地面沉降量等11个指标作为单指标评价的参评指标。运用状态指数法对11个指标进行承载状态现状和近十年变化趋势判别，其中人均建设用地、工业用地比例、万元工业增加值耗水量、可吸入颗粒年平均浓度目前处于危机状态，是上海市土地综合承载力的短板因素；人均耕地面积、人均住房建筑面积、人均可用水资源量、建筑容积率、二氧化硫年日平均值、地面沉降量均处于预警状态，是上海市土地综合承载力的主要限制性因素；人均公共绿地面积和工业废水排放达标率处于一般状态，仍有进一步提升的空间。就其近十年的发展趋势看，人均住房建筑面积、可吸入颗粒年日平均浓度、人均可用水资源量、万元工业增加值耗水量、地面沉降量、人均公共绿地面积、工业废水达标排放率等多数预警指标承载状况有所改善，但承载等级未发生变化；人均建设用地面积、工业用地比例、人均耕地面积、二氧化硫年日平均值等指标的制约作用总体趋于强化；土地资源和环境空气质量对上海可持续发展的约束作用趋紧。从资源、环境、人口与经济发展之间的关系入手，利用反馈、调节和控制理论设计反应系统行为的回路，建立了包括人口、经济、水资源、土地资源、生态环境和地质环境等6个子系统的计算机仿真模型；选取城市化水平提高率、人口增长率、GDP增长率、第三产业比例增加率、耕地面积减少率、建设用地面积增加率、用水总量增加率、地下水净采量增加率、公共绿地面积增加率等指标作为系统控制变量集，并确定其参数，构建上海市市土地承载力系统流图；经检验，模型相对误差在-4.7%～6.2%之间，精度较高。对系统控制变量集中的参数进行不同的组合，设定经济优先模式、环境保护模式、资源节约模式、现状延续模式和协调发展模式五种社会经济发展情景模式。情景模拟结果显示，现状延续模式的初始承载能力介于五种情景模式初始承载能力的中间水平（0.3566），2010-2020年间表现为稳步上升趋势，2011年到2019年高于除经济优先模式以外的其它四种情景，2019年后开始低于协调发展模式的承载能力。经济优先模式在五种情景中具有最大的初始承载能力0.3951，且在前五年里（2010-2014年）逐步增加，到2014年达到承载极限后减少到最低承载水平0.3713，承载力指数值从2018年起低于其它四种情景模式。资源节约模式的初始承载力较低（0.3274），后期增加幅度较大，2020年提高到0.6256，仅次于协调发展模式的增加幅度。环境保护模式在2010年的初始承载力（0.3688）仅低于经济优先模式的初始承载力（0.3951），2015年其承载力均表现为逐年降低，其承载能力低于现状延续模式、资源节约模式和协调发展模式。协调发展模式在2010年的初始承载能力最小（0.2936），从2015年起开始逐渐显示出较强的增长趋势，到2020年增加到五种情景模式的最高水平（0.7026），是承载力增长幅度最大的情景模式。总之，协调发展模式是最优发展模式；现状延续型前期发展趋势良好，后期需要改进；经济优先型因资源过度消耗呈现前期发展速度快，后期动力不足的特点；资源节约型承载状态其发展趋势及排序均稳步升高，可以指导长远发展规划；环境保护型承载力在2018年后高于经济优先型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shanghai city is one of the three comprehensive gateway cities positioned by The StateCouncil of the People’s Republic of China, being as the municipality and the central city ofthe China. With the population rapid growth and the economy quick development, thephenomenon the water and land resources constraints on the economic and social sustainabledevelopment of the city is more apparent than before. Usually, the harmony coordinationamong the population, the economy development, the resources and the environment stronglysupports the regional sustainable development. Therefore, the co-ordination and adaptionbetween the population, resources and environment is pre-requisite for the future sustainabledevelopment of Shanghai.The land resources carrying capacity of Shanghai being the research target, thedissertation sets up the more relatively integrated assessment system adapting the singleindicator of the―Short Plate Theory‖and the comprehensive assessment System Dynamicssimultaneously; finding out the key constrains through analyzing on the land resourcescarrying capacity during the past10years in Shanghai. It simulates the future development ofShanghai through5assumed development scenarios, demonstrating the advantage anddisadvantage of the different scenarios, which will hold out the framing development strategyof Shanghai. The conclusions and contents as follows:Under the direction of the principle of the completeness, the system, the integration andthe operability, the dissertation has screened out11single indicators as the reference for theassessment, including the constructive land per capita, the floor area ratio, the industrial landrate, the floor space of residential buildings per capita, the cultivated land per capita, the wateravailability per capita, the water consumption amount per unit output value of ten thousandYuan, the percentage of industrial waste water up to the standards for discharge, the publicgreen areas per capita, the percentage of the days with excellent or good air quality and thenumber of land subsidence, addressing the signification and importance of the four categoriesof the land and water resources carrying capacity, the ecology and geology environmentcarrying capacity including dozens of indicators. The dissertation assesses the current situation and forecast the future trend in the next tenyears on the above mentioned11indicators adaption of the method of the state index andconcludes that, firstly, these indicators of the constructive land per capita, the industrial landrate, the water consumption amount per unit output value of ten thousand Yuan and theannual average respirable particle concentration are the―short plate‖factors in comprehensivecarrying capacity of Shanghai being in the crisis status; secondly, the cultivated land percapita, the floor space of residential buildings per capita, the water availability per capita, thefloor area ratio, the annual average daily SO2and the number of land subsidence are the mainconstraint factors being in early warning status; finally, the percentage of industrial wastewater up to the standards for discharge and the public green areas per capita are in ordinarystate being the room to be improved. According to the next10years development trend, It canforesee that, First of all, the situation of these early warning indictors, such as the floor spaceof residential buildings per capita, the annual average respirable particle concentration, thewater availability per capita, the water consumption amount per unit output value of tenthousand Yuan, the number of land subsidence, the public green areas per capita and thepercentage of industrial waste water up to the standards for discharge etc. have beenameliorated, but the level of carrying capacity has not been changed; next, the constraint ofthese indicators including the constructive land per capita, the industrial land rate, thecultivated land per capita and the annual average daily SO2etc. is tending to be strengthened;eventually, the land resource, the environment and the air quality have pressing constraint onthe sustainable development of Shanghai.Beginning with the relationship among the resource, the environment, the population andthe economy development, the dissertation constructs6sub-system computer simulationmodel including population, economy, water, land, ecology and geology based on the theoryof the feedback, adjustment and control, at the same time, these indicators of increase rate ofurbanization、population growth rate、increasing rate of GDP、increasing rate of the tertiaryindustry s ratio、reduce the rate of cultivated area、increasing rate of construction land area、increasing rate of total water、increasing rate of groundwater s net exploration、increasing rateof the public green space are chosen as the control variables group and the parameters aredetermined in order to construct the Shanghai flow diagram of the land carrying capacity system. Finally, the model can achieve a satisfactory result owing to the average relative errorbeing between-4.7%-6.2%.5Socio-economic development model scenarios including economy-priority mode,environment-protection mode, resource-saving mode, the current situation continuation modeand the harmony-development mode are constructed based on the different combination ofparameters determination in the control variables group.The current situation continuation modeIts original carrying capacity (0.3566) in the middle among the5development models,then will increase steadily from2010to2010and outclass the other4modes (except theeconomy-priority mode) between2011and2019, then it will be lower than theharmony-development mode.The economy-priority modeIt has the biggest original carrying capacity (0.3951) among the5development modelsand increases with steady steps in the first5years (2010-2014), reaching the max capacity in2014and then decreasing the lowest (0.3713), besides, its capacity will be lower the other4modes from2018.The resource-saving modeIts original carrying capacity is lower (0.3274), then increase obviously, reaching0.6256in2010. Anyway, the increasing extent is the next only to the harmony-development mode.The environment-protection modeIts original carrying capacity (0.3688) is the next only to the economy-priority mode(0.3951), and both will decrease year after year from2015, being lower than the currentsituation continuation mode, the resource-saving mode and the harmony-development mode.The harmony-development modeIts original carrying capacity (0.2936) is the lowest in2010, but will increase rapidlyfrom2015, reaching the highest (0.7026) among the5modes in2020, furthermore itsincreasing extent is the biggest.In short, the harmony-development mode is the optimal development mode; The currentsituation continuation mode have a good development trend in early prophase, later needimprovement; The economy-priority mode present preliminary development speed because excessive consumption of resources, and anaphase underpowered; The resource-saving modedevelopment trend of bearing state and the order are increasing steadily, can guide thelong-term development planning; The carrying capacity of the environment-protection modeis higher than the economy-priority mode’s after2018.更多还原