【作者】 孙战文；

【导师】 杨学成；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 以家庭这一社会最小单元，完成落户城市，实现农民工家庭城市化，是农民工市民化必经的发展阶段，也是近几年困扰中国经济、社会稳定发展的现实问题。本文在新劳动力迁移经济理论和成本——收益分析框架下，综合运用理论分析与实证分析、模型构建与模型检验、微观分析与宏观分析、均衡分析与边际分析等多种方法，在市民化背景下对农民工家庭的迁移决策及其引致的迁移行为进行研究。通过模型构建和影响因素假设，从静态和动态两条路径在理论上分析了农民工家庭的迁移决策及其影响因素的作用方向；通过成本——收入分析对理论模型进行实证检验，并分析了短期和长期农民工家庭迁移净收益条件。在此基础上，将农民工家庭的迁移过程分解为五种迁移状态和四个迁移阶段，继续利用静态和动态理论分析框架，基于山东省的实地调查资料和跟踪调查资料进行分析，探索农民工家庭在各种迁移状态下，实施下一步市民化计划的迁移决策及其行为，以寻求农民工家庭顺利完成向城市住户转化的推动力量和障碍因素，进而提出促进农民工及农民工家庭逐步迁移、定居、融入城市的政策取向。通过理论研究和实证研究发现：农民工家庭顺利完成向城市住户的转换已经表现出众多利好的方面，也产生了众多障碍性因素。从静态分析视角研究发现：（1）农民工家庭在定居城市前，家庭规模逐步缩小、负担减轻；家庭收入和迁移净收益均持续增长；农民工城市工作、生活能力逐步提升，表明农民工家庭从派出首个农民工外出，到举家迁移城市的迁移进程动力强劲。（2）定居和融入城市阶段成为农民工家庭顺利完成向城市户转换的困难阶段。农民工家庭因定居城市而使净收益大幅缩减且迁移净收益为负；耕地、宅基地和住房等家庭农村资产既有市场交易运作意愿，又有保留抵御城市务工风险的想法；城市收入分配体系、合同、法律法规等务工权益保障体系、社会保障体系、住房保障体系以及城市政治、经济、文化环境对农民工家庭的差别待遇等，都对农民工家庭顺利定居、融入城市产生阻碍。从动态分析视角研究发现：（1）农民工家庭最终的归宿是向城乡两端沉淀，农民工家庭恰恰是处于中间的非稳态迁移状态。农民工家庭向城乡两端沉淀的分界线是农民工家庭有2个以上的劳动力迁移。偶尔有成员外出务工或仅有一个农民工迁移的农民工家庭更倾向于最终沉淀在农村，2个以上成员外出务工或举家迁移的农民工家庭更倾向于最终沉淀在城市。（2）农民工家庭最终沉淀在城市需要经过十几年甚至更长的时间，这同时需要家庭内的农民工获得稳定的城市就业机会和工资水平，需要对城市务工收入增长有良好的预期，需要提升家庭成员整体素质。（3）在此漫长的家庭成员有序迁移过程中首个农民工迁移会受到中国农民工整体迁移趋势、迁移成员代际、农民工个体特征和家庭特征的影响，而后续家庭成员迁移则主要受家庭特征的影响；该过程中也反映出了迁移成员的代际转换和第一、二代农民工家庭代际转换的特征。因此，推动农民工家庭成员市民化进程，一方面，就处于不同转化阶段的农民工家庭而言，应该积极适应各阶段的变化，通过增加家庭人力资本积累和社会资本积累，改善自身的主观条件，优化自己的迁移行为；通过家庭成员有序迁移或者代际迁移，积极促成2个以上的家庭劳动力成员城市务工，有助于农民工家庭最终沉淀在城市。另一方面，（也是更重要的）就政府而言，一是要完善城乡一体化的就业市场和服务体系，改善农民工工作和生活环境，明晰农村资产产权，培育城乡一体化的资产交易市场，以帮助农民工家庭增加在城市就业，提高家庭收入和积累；二是要完善城乡统筹的社会保障体系和义务教育体系，解决农民工家庭迁移负担；三是要加强城市保障房建设和廉租房建设，降低农民工家庭定居城市的居住成本；四是要支持务工人员提升素质和能力，并通过相应的制度跟进促使农民工家庭最终实现融入城市的目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 The realization of settlement in city and urbanization of the migrant workers’ families,which is relied on family, the smallest unit of the society, is the necessary stage of migrantworkers’ citizenization. This has also plagued the development of China’s economy and therealization of social stability in recent years.On the basis of the new labor migration theory and benefit-cost analysis, the paper makesfull use of theoretical and empirical analysis, model construction and test, microscopic and macroscopic analysis, equilibrium and marginal analysis, and etc, to analyze migration decisionand behavior of migrant workers’ families. Through building model and influential factors hypothesis, the paper theoretically analyzes migration behavior and its influential factors’ direction of migrant workers’ families from the static and dynamic respects. And meanwhile, through testing the theoretical model empirically based on cost-benefit analysis, the paper analyzes net profit of migration in the short-term and long-term. Based on the above analysis, the migration process is decomposed into five migrant conditions and four migrant stages. The analysisis continued according to the static and dynamic theory, based on survey data of Shandong Province. This paper studies the migration decision-making, analyses the factors which affect migration, and makes clear of the impetus and obstacle factors which affect the realization of urbanization. And finally, the suggestion is put forth that the policy about migration, settlementand orientation of migrant workers and their families should be adjusted.The conclusion is put forward that the positive and negative aspects have appeared in thetransformation from migrant workers’ families to city residents, through theoretical and empirical research.From the aspect of static analysis, the conclusion of the study is summarized as follows.(1) The migrant workers’ family scale gradually narrows, and the burden thus alleviates before settlement in city; family income and net migration profit are growing; migrant workers’ work and life ability in city gradually improves. These above shows the strong power in the process from the first migrant coming to city to the whole family coming to city.(2) But the stageof settlement in city and integration into city has been the one which hinders the urbanization.The reasons are as follows. After settlement in city, the net income reduces and the net migration gain is less than zero; for rural family assets such as cultivated land, residential land and housing, rural family have both market transaction intention and retention intention to resist ris ks in city; city income distribution system, contracts, laws and regulations which safeguard the rights and interests of migrant workers, and the social security system, housing security system and political, economical and cultural environment all adversely affect the settlement in city.(1) From the aspect of dynamic analysis, migrant workers family’s ultimately either settle in city or go back to countryside. For a migrant worker’s family, whether being able to settle in city needs at least two labors, who have migrated to city. Migrant workers’ families, which have members occasionally going to city or only one migrant worker, tend to eventually settle in rural. Migrant workers’ families, which have more than2migrant workers, tend to eventually settle in city.(2) However, for migrant workers’ family, the settlement in city needs ten or even more years, which needs migrant workers get stable job and wage, good expectation of income growth of working in the city; and needs to enhance the overall quality of family members.(3) At the same time, in this long migration process, the first migrant worker will be affected by the overall trend of Chinese migration, migrant workers’ intergenerational relationship,and individual and family characteristics. But subsequent family members who also migrate to city are mainly affected by family characteristics, which also reflect intergenerational transition of migrant members and intergenerational transition of the first and second generation ofmigrant workers’ families.Therefore, in order to promote the citizenization of migrant workers’ family, on one hand,migrant workers’ families which are in different stages should be actively adapted to differentchanges, and improve subjective conditions and optimize their migration decision through itsaccumulation of human capital and social capital. Migrant workers’ families should actively promote more than2members to migrate to city, which can help migrant workers’ family eventually settle in city. On the other hand, it is more important that the government needs to improve employment market and service system which are urbanely-rurally integrated, improve migrant workers’ income and living environment, make rural property rights clear, foster property market which is urbanely and rurally integrated, and help migrant workers’ families increaseemployment, income and capital accumulation. Social security system and compulsory education system should be improved, which can reduce the burden of migrant workers’ family migration. The construction of city low-income housing and low rent housing should be enhancedto reduce the cost to settle in city. Some system to promote workers’ quality and ability should be improved, which can help migrant workers’ families integrate into city.更多还原