【作者】 黄森；

【导师】 戴思锐；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 农林经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 柑桔产业在中国具有重要的社会经济地位,生产风险成为柑桔生产者面临的重要现实问题。为防控柑桔生产风险,本研究综合柑桔学、灾害学、气象学、地理学与经济学等多学科理论和方法,分析柑桔产业发展历程、生产条件和生产发展态势,并对柑桔生产风险进行分析识别、风险发生及成灾机理分析、风险评估以及风险管理策略等进行研究,研究提出了柑桔生产风险研究理论分析框架、实证分析和评估模型和有针对性的风险管理对策建议。有助于为我国柑桔生产风险管理提供理论支撑,有助于我国柑桔生产风险管理实践中为柑桔生产优势区域发展规划、柑桔生产保险实施、生产决策和风险管理政策措施等提供现实依据。一、主要研究内容本研究主要包括九章内容。第一章总论中明确了研究背景、研究范围、研究目标、研究内容、研究方法及基本思路。第二章对本研究需借鉴的系统理论、风险管理理论、信息扩散理论、资产专用性理论等进行内涵与内容的简单阐述,并分别对这四个理论在本研究中所应用的领域进行了分析。第三章在中国柑桔产业发展历程及生产变动分析中,概述了我国柑桔柑桔产业发展历程、社会经济地位、生产布局、优势产业带分布、发展规划等产业发展相关内容,分析了我国柑桔近10年来生产发展态势、优势和劣势,并对柑桔生产条件进行了分析,为后文的生产风险研究奠定基础。研究建立我国柑桔单产灰色预测模型并进行了实证分析。第四章对柑桔生产风险的内涵及外延进行了界定,根据对风险生成及成灾识别的分析,将中国柑桔生产风险分为四个类别,即柑桔管理决策风险、柑桔自然灾害风险、柑桔技术风险和柑桔其它风险。本研究还将农业历史灾害数据与柑桔历史单产偏率进行相关性分析,以识别影响柑桔生产的自然灾害风险类别。之后分别对风险发生、风险损失及中长期影响进行了分析,为柑桔生产风险的机理分析和评估奠定基础。第五章在前人的研究基础上,强调了柑桔生产风险系统的开发复杂性,结构和功能的多因素性,研究提出了柑桔生产风险系统分析的理论框架,并应用这个理论分析框架分别对柑桔生产管理决策风险、自然灾害风险、技术风险和其它风险进行了成灾机理分析,以期明确各类风险的成灾机理,为风险评估和风险防控作指导。还分析了柑桔生产风险的基本特征,即柑桔生产风险具有风险发生的必然性、风险损失的多因素生成和风险损失的可控性等三个基本特征。第六章对前文划分的四类中国柑桔生产风险分别进行了定性和定量兼顾的风险评估,分析了四类风险的风险损失、风险概率、风险主体的演变趋势等,以期明确四类风险影响程度和发展演变态势。引入层次分析法以冻害风险为例进行单类风险定量评估,为定量评估风险提供了一个新的定量评估方法。第七章在前文提出的理论分析框架和风险分析的基础上,利用单产负波动指数法、风险概率、专业化指数和效率指数等评估方法,分别对我国三大柑桔优势带的九个柑桔主产区分别进行了风险评估,最后综合利用负波动指数、风险概率、专业化指数和效率指数探索构建柑桔区域生产风险综合评估模型,对我国九个柑桔主产区进行了柑桔生产风险综合评估和风险区划。之后还对我国柑桔生产风险的防险避险进行了可能性、成本和效益的评估,为风险管理对策建议奠定基础。第八章首先疏理了我国柑桔生产风险管理实践探索中已形成的风险管理制度规定和政策措施等,根据前文分析评估结果,提出中国柑桔生产风险管理对策建议,并系统性地构建柑桔生产风险综合管理体系框架,以期对我国柑桔生产风险起到指导作用。第九章的结论性评述中,总结归纳了本研究的结论性成果,并提出了需要进一步研究的问题如柑桔生产由市场风险引起的不确定性及传导机制分析,柑桔生产风险的定量分析和损失的定量评估,防险避险的投入产出的定量评估以及风险管理综合管理框架的细化分析和实施方案制定以及方案的可操作性等,均需要更深入地研究。二、主要研究结论1、柑桔生产风险既具有一般风险的特征,也具有一般农业风险特征,还具有其独特的特征。由于柑桔经济地位重要,属多年生作物,生长童期长,对气温和水分较敏感,其生产资产专用性较强,生产需要更多的专业技术和专用工具,弃管果园土地复垦难,而且规模化、集约化生产成趋势。因此,生产风险的暴露度和脆弱性更明显,一旦成灾损害性更大,柑桔生产风险具有系统性、复杂性和高风险性。2、柑桔生产风险系统是由孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体组成的一个开放性系统,风险发生及成灾是三者综合作用的结果,其功能体系是由敏感性、危险性、暴露性、脆弱性及抗耐风险能力共同构成的。因此,柑桔生产风险系统是一个由“三主体五要素”组成的一个开放复杂的混沌系统,柑桔生产风险发生与成灾是由这几种要素之间的作用与反作用的协同效应等决定的,从而提出柑桔生产风险量度指标及其概念模型为：柑桔生产风险度=敏感性×危险性×暴露性×脆弱性÷抗耐风险能力3、根据对柑桔生产全过程的风险类型分析、成灾识别,将中国柑桔生产风险类别分为四类,包括管理决策风险、自然灾害风险、技术风险以及有害生物风险等其他风险。4、风险成灾过程是多种因素影响,既有促进风险成灾因素作用力,也有抵抗风险成灾因素作用力,风险成灾是在多种相互关联因素的相互作用下,由量变到质变的过程。本研究据此构建的柑桔生产风险成灾机理分析模型中表明,孕灾环境对致灾因子的敏感性、致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性、脆弱性及抗耐风险能力这五个风险生成要素是分析柑桔生产风险成灾的主要因素,几种要素的时空演变和协同效应决定着风险成灾的概率、损失大小和灾害演变规律等。5、四类柑桔生产风险由于风险主体的演变规律不同,呈现不同的风险发生概率和损失大小。随着社会经济的发展,我国宏观决策和生产者生产决策信息的传递性和对称性增强,决策的科学性增强,我国柑桔生产管理决策风险的成灾概率在降低,风险度也随之降低；我国柑桔自然灾害风险的具有较强的区域性,如低温冻害风险,层次分析法定量评估结果显示四个产业优势带的代表产区浙江冻害风险最高,其次是江西和湖南,风险最低的是重庆。对于干旱风险,各产区均有季节性干早。柑桔洪涝灾害风险总体上不高,但平原或浅丘果园大于山地果园。我国东南和南方沿海浙江、福建、广东、台湾及海南等柑桔主产区,每年夏秋之间的台风暴雨形成严重的风害和洪涝灾害；我国柑桔生产技术风险方面,孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体三者之间的相互作用,既有增强的因素,也有减弱的因素,其影响力大小不一,不能具体量化技术风险是在增大还是在减少,但增加了技术风险的不确定性；我国柑桔生产社会风险和有害生物风险方面,风险三主体均有增加可能性的倾向,并且一旦发生灾变,所造成的损失也越来越大,风险总体水平在上升,造成的危害在加大,需要加强管理。6、在柑桔生产风险综合评估方面,负波动指数、风险概率、专业化指数和效率指数的评估结果表明,不同指标显示生产风险度有差别,因此,不能仅凭单一指标判断各主产区的生产风险度。根据综合风险评估模型的评估结果判断,我国9个柑桔主产区柑桔生产风险可分为3个等级(风险高、中、低),根据风险等级可对柑桔主产区进行风险区划,江西省属于柑桔生产高风险区,湖北、浙江、福建和湖南属于柑桔生产中风险区,广西、广东、重庆和四川属于柑桔生产低风险区。评估分类结果比较符合实际和本研究目的。该综合指标评估结果可作为柑桔生产风险区划、柑桔生产保险实施、生态区划、产业发展规划以及风险管理对策措施等的参考依据。7、我国柑桔生产风险管理需更加注重风险的分析、评估和区划,在此基础上,结合我国柑桔生产风险管理实践经验,建议实施全风险类别的、全过程的、系统性的柑桔生产风险管理。具体的风险管理策略建议包括如下：一是根据风险评估结果,进行风险区划,以风险区划指导发展规划,预防风险；二是通过技术和管理创新,加强信息交流,增加柑桔生产过程中的确定性,减少生产的不确定性,从而降低风险发生概率,化解风险；三是强化果园基础设施、果农科技素质等能力建设,提高承灾体抗或耐风险能力；四是以产业保险转移生产风险,以分散风险和补偿损失;五是当风险灾害发生时,积极应对,组织应急救灾,尽可能减少灾害损失；六是实施灾害救济,提振恢复重建的能力和信心。最后,需要构建一个柑桔生产风险综合管理体系框架,将政府机制和市场机制紧密结合起来,形成一个统一领导、分工协作、利益共享、责任分担的运行机制,构建全方位、全过程、多元化的整体性柑桔生产风险综合管理体系,以实现柑桔生产风险的有效预防、合理分散、高效应急和长效管理,保障我国柑桔生产的健康发展。三、论文创新点1、结合柑桔生产实际,综合柑桔学、灾害学、气象学、地理学、经济学与管理学等多学科理论和方法,探索提出了柑桔生产风险理论分析框架,以此理论分析框架对我国柑桔生产风险进行了类别界定、分类识别、成灾机理分析、风险特征分析、风险评估和风险管理措施建议等的分析研究,以期作为我国柑桔生产风险管理实践的理论支撑、风险评估与风险管理实践的依据。2、在前人自然灾害风险研究的基础上,结合本研究提出的柑桔生产风险理论分析框架,基于柑桔生产风险成灾是多种因素作用与反作用的结果的共识,本研究提出了柑桔生产风险量度指标及其概念模型。并根据此模型,以单产负波动指数综合性地代表孕灾环境的敏感性和致灾因子的危险性,以成灾概率代表致灾因子的危险性,以专业化指数代表承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性,以效率指数代表承灾体的抗耐风险能力,构建了柑桔生产风险综合评估模型,通过该模型评估我国九个柑桔主产区的柑桔生产风险度,并据此进行了柑桔生产风险区划,其结果与生产实际较符合,对柑桔生产风险的评估和风险管理具有较好的指导作用。3、利用灰色预测理论和方法,首次建立各主产区柑桔单产的灰色预测模型GM(1,1),并分别通过了后验差比C值和小概率误差P值进行模型检验,模型精度较好,且具有各主产区普适性,克服了回归预测方法对各柑桔主产区单产预测区域模型不一致的缺点。引入层次分析法以冻害风险为例进行单类风险定量评估,为定量评估风险提供了一个新的定量评估方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Citrus has been playing an important role in economic and social of China. Its production risk is becoming an important practical problem for Citrus producers. In order to solve the problem of citrus production, the theories and methods of citrology, catastrophology, meteorology, geography and economics, are synthetically used for the analysis of the development of citrus industry of citrus, and used for the risk identification, the analysis of risk of disaster occurring and its mechanism, risk assessment and risk management strategies and so on in this research. The thesis puts forward the theoretical analysis framework and empirical analysis model of citrus production risk, and the suggestion of risk management measures.1. The main research contentsThis thesis does a research on citrus production risk in china and contains nine chapters.This thesis defines the basic thought of research background, research scope, research objectives, research contents research methods in the first chapter, and briefly expound the system theory, risk management theory, information diffusion theory, asset specificity theory, and these four theories applied in this research field were analyzed in the second chapter. Then the China citrus industry development and changes in production are analyzed, and the China’s citrus yield grey prediction model is established in the third chapter.In the fourth chapter, this thesis divides Chinese citrus production risk into four categories, namely citrus management decision-making risk, citrus natural disaster risk, technology risk and other risks of citrus citrus respectively. And this thesis also analyzes between agricultural history disaster data and history of citrus yield rate by correlation analysis to identify the category of natural disasters of citrus production. The risk formation, the risk loss and long-term impacts are analized in this chapter.In the fifth chapter, this thesis puts forward the theoretical analysis framework of citrus production risk, and applies this analysis framework to analyze the disaster formation mechanism of4citrus production risks. This paper also analyzes the basic characteristics of citrus risk production.In the sixth chapter and the seventh chapter, four kinds of China citrus production risk are assessed by qualitative and quantitative methods. AHP is introduced to frost damage risk of single risk assessment. Finally, the research builds a comprehensive risk assessment model, and makes comprehensive risk assessments for9main citrus production areas respectively by using the comprehensive utilization of the yield minus deviate index, risk probability, specialization index and efficiency index. Finally, the research makes comprehensive risk regionalization and risk map for9main citrus production areas.In the eighth chapter, the research presents6risk management strategies for the citrus production, and constructs the comprehensive risk management framework of citrus production.In the last chapter, this thesis summarizes the conclusions of the research results, and puts forward some problems that need further study.2. The main research conclusionsThis thesis Analyzes and clears the characteristics of citrus production risk. Compares with the bygone citrus production and annual crops, exposure and vulnerability of citrus production risk is more obvious and more damage. Therefore, citrus production risk is systematic, complexity and high damage risk.This thesis presents innovatively the citrus production risk measurement index and its conceptual model. Citrus production risk system is an open system and is composed of pregnant disaster environment; disaster causing factors and disaster bearing body. Risk occurring and disaster causing are the comprehensive effect of the three factors results. The function system is composed of sensitivity, fatalness, exposure, vulnerability and risk resistance ability. This paper proposes the risk measure index and its conceptual model of citrus production risk as follow:Citrus production risk degree=sensitivity*fatalness*exposure*vulnerability/risk resistance abilityThis thesis constructs the grey prediction models for citrus yield and makes an empirical analysis for the model. This study selects the citrus yield data series from1992to2011of China and nine main citrus producing areas in China, and constructs of grey prediction models for citrus yield of China and nine main citrus producing areas in China respectively, and makes an empirical analysis for these models. The result of an example shows that the prediction and forecasting precision are preferable.This thesis Analyzes and clears the Citrus production risk categories of china. Through the analysis for the types of risk for the whole process of citrus production, and the identification of disaster causing, this paper deems the citrus production risk is divided into four categories, including management and decision-making risk, natural disaster risk, technology risk and other risk such as social risk and pest risk. To identify the natural disaster risk categories, this research also makes a correlation analysis between the agricultural history natural disaster data and citrus history yield minus deviate rate, and gains the major risk category of natural disasters of the national and some citrus production area. This thesis builds innovatively the analysis model of disaster causing mechanism for citrus production risk. The research makes a systematic analysis on the citrus production risk through this model, and makes an analysis for disaster causing mechanism and the judge for the4citrus production risks through5indices which are the sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment, fatalness of disaster causing factors, exposure, vulnerability and risk resistance ability of disaster bearing body.This thesis constructs the quantitative assessment model of citrus production risk and makes an empirical analysis for the model.The research makes various quantitative risk assessments by using the model of disaster causing mechanism, the theories of risk management, information diffusion and the methods AHP, yield minus deviate index, specialization index and efficiency index etc.First of all, the research makes a qualitative or quantitative assessment for4kinds of citrus production risk, especially for the quantitative assessment of low temperature frozen risk of4main citrus production areas by using AHP method. Then, the research makes citrus yield risk assessment for9main citrus production areas which belong to the three superiority belts by yield minus deviate index and risk probability methods respectively. Thirdly, the research builds a comprehensive risk assessment model, and makes comprehensive risk assessments for9main citrus production areas respectively by using the comprehensive utilization of the yield minus deviate index, risk probability, specialization index and efficiency index. Finally, the research makes comprehensive risk regionalization and risk map for9main citrus production areas. The comprehensive risk assessment results show that Jiangxi province belongs to citrus production in high risk area, Hubei, Zhejiang, Fujian and Hunan province belong to citrus production in moderate risk region, Guangxi, Guangdong, Chongqing and Sichuan province belong to citrus production in low risk region.According to the theory of risk management and the analysis of disaster causing mechanism, the research makes immediate impact and long-term development impact evaluation for the citrus production risk. Moreover, the research makes assessment for the possibility, costs, and benefits of risk prevention and avoiding.Based on the analysis, assessment and risk regionalization for the citrus production risk, and based on the practices of risk management of Chinese citrus management department, the research presents6risk management strategies for the citrus production, and constructs the comprehensive risk management framework of citrus production. This study considers that the risk management must implement the whole process of citrus production, and the6strategies including as follow:Firstly, making risk regionalization based on the results of risk assessment, then using risk zoning regionalization guides to the citrus development planning for risk prevention; Secondly, innovating of technology and management and strengthen communication for increase the certainty and reduce the uncertainty, thus reducing the risk probability for risk defusion; Thirdly, strengthen the capacity increasing of disaster bearing bodies for risk resistance or toleration; Fourthly, transferring risk by the citrus industrial insurance for spread risk and compensate loss; Fifthly, positive coping and organizing of emergency relief when the disaster causing, as far as possible to reduce disaster losses; Sixthly, implementing the disaster relief to increase the confidence and capacity of recovery and reconstruction.Finally, the research constructs the citrus production risk comprehensive management framework of citrus production. The risk comprehensive management framework is considered that it will form a run mechanism which including unified leadership, division and cooperation, benefit sharing, shared responsibility through combine the government mechanism and market mechanism close together, and it will construct a citrus production risk comprehensive management system which is all-round, whole process, diversification and integrity. These risk management strategies and the citrus production risk comprehensive management framework of citrus production successfully implemented, it would promote risk prevention efficiently, risk defusion reasonably, emergency relief effectively and risk management long-term and to ensure the healthy development of citrus industry in china.3. Innovation pointsCombined with the citrus production actual and multidisciplinary theories and methods, this thesis puts forward the theoretical analysis framework for citrus production risk.Based on the theoretical analysis framework for citrus risk production, this thesis advises a comprehensive assessment model for citrus production risk and its measure index. According to this model, the thesis makes comprehensive risk assessments and makes comprehensive risk regionalization and risk map for9main citrus production areas.Using the grey forecasting theory and method, the grey forecast model of GM (1,1) is established for the citrus yield of main production areas, and the model is accuracy by model testing. The introduction of AHP to frost damage risk assessment provides a new quantitative risk assessment method.更多还原