【作者】 杜静；

【导师】 杨凤林；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 工业生态与环境规划， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 对城市发展进行规划环境影响评价(Planning Environmental Impact Assessment,简称PEIA)可尽早鉴别和发现城市发展规划决策中潜在的环境问题,预防因战略决策失误对环境造成的不利影响,目前被各国广泛关注并实例应用。这些研究及应用,主要是以半定量与定性相结合的技术进行环境要素承载力的计算,并根据计算结果做出定性的评价结论。缺乏系统性机制,评价指标缺少关键性量化环境刚性约束指标,并且技术方法不够完善,无法对评价结论作出定量数据支撑是目前研究中存在的缺点与所面临的难点。因此,本论文主要开展城市发展PEIA系统性机制剖析,基于系统理论建立定量计算与定性分析相结合的综合技术方法,利用多目标优化方法对城市发展PEIA系统进行量化优化,以及以大连市为例开展案例研究四方面内容的研究。研究表明,可持续发展理论、环境承载力理论、循环经济理论和系统理论为指导城市发展PEIA的理论基础；利用SWOT分析法,可得出技术方法不完善是影响环境影响评价作为科学决策工具的重要因素之一的结论；经剖析,城市发展PEIA具有复杂系统性,该系统下的各个评价子系统具有相互紧密联系的层次结构。其结构性“系统元”构成既有树枝状串行又有横向蔓延并行的复杂结构；通过对常见环境影响评价方法进行筛选,在系统理论的指导下,构建适用于城市发展PEIA的以定量为主、定量与定性相结合的综合技术方法,包括相关性分析、曲线回归预测、层次分析法、灰色关联度分析、基于STELLA的系统动力学、模糊综合评判法及灰色多目标优化定量计算方法与情景分析和专家判断法定性分析方法。论文对《大连城市发展规划(2003-2020)》开展案例研究。筛选出子规划《中心城市发展规划》、《交通规划》、《水资源规划》以及《市政基础设施规划》,利用所构建的以定量为主、定量与定性相结合的综合技术方法分别预测与评价规划对大气环境、水环境以及固体废弃物系统造成的环境影响。预测结果表明,随着社会经济的发展,到目标年2020年,工业排污与机动车尾气对大气环境造成的污染值将达到SO2为0.146mg/m3, NO2为0.139mg/m3；水资源需求量将达到60亿m3；中心城区固体废弃物日清运量3512.7t/d,低位热值为5542.9KJ/kg,表明社会经济发展严重制约了大连市未来的可持续协调发展。论文应用灰色关联度、系统动力学以及模糊综合评判方法定量评价现状方案,惯性方案(以预测数据为基础)及规划方案造成的大气环境、水环境以及固体废弃物环境影响。评价结果表明,至目标年2020年,《中心城市发展规划》中能源结构规划方案以及《交通规划》中对城市交通做出的规划方案,将大幅削减工业煤烟与尾气对城市大气环境系统的不良影响,大气环境质量指标可达到SO20.06mg/m3, NO20.04mg/m3。《中心城市发展规划》与《水资源规划》中的规划方案模拟可使大连市水资源需求量降为30亿m3。《中心城市发展规划》与《城市基础设施规划》中关于固体废弃物处理方案评价结论为不合理,需要调整。调整后为固体废弃物经3R分拣后,将生活垃圾运输至新建垃圾焚烧厂、餐厨垃圾及污水处理厂污泥共同运输至污泥处理厂进行厌氧消化处理,最终进行少量填埋的方案。最后论文以各子系统的量化模拟结果及评价结论作为输入端,对大连城市发展PEIA系统进行灰色多目标系统优化,仿真模拟刚性环境约束量化指标大气质量S02为0.06mg/m3,.NO2为0.04mg/m3水资源使用量为11.6亿m3,中心城区的固体废弃物日填埋量为108.9t/d；在此量化指标约束下,目标函数城市化水平可达最优条件为82%,经济最优条件GDP可达到1.633万亿元。论文根据量化结论,提出了战略方案实施与调整的对策与建议并对环境污染控制系统进行研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Planning environmental impact assessment (PEIA) for urban development which aims to ensure environmental and possibly other sustainability aspects in urban development process is considered to be a systematic decision support process, making a big difference in urban policy, plan and programme making. It continues to be a major challenge for human communities in the dynamic and rapidly evolving world. A considerable number of researches and applications have been carried out in recent decades on various aspect of PEIA for urban development, however, most of them studied on environmental carrying capacity based on combinative method of semi-quantitative and qualitative analyses and concluded with qualitative evaluation conclusion, lack of focuses on systemic theoretical mechanism, quantitative environmental index with rigid constraints, and comprehensive integration technology. Thus, in this study, we conduct a research on PEIA systemic theoretical mechanism and combinative method of quantitative and qualitative analysis, analyse and optimize the PEIA system for urban development, and take Dalian City as a case study.On the basis of sustainable development, environmental carrying capacity, circular economy and system theory, this research studies the complex system performance of PEIA for urban development and analyses it by SWOT method. The study indicates that, subsystem of PEIA system has significant relative hierarchical structure in which system elements exist with not only dendritic serial but also transverse spread parallel structure. That technical method is deficient and need to be improved can be considered as one of restrictive factors for urban development PEIA system. Based on routine methods of strategic environmental assessment screened, a comprehensive technical method which stresses the quantitative method while combining it with the qualitative method has been established, which includes correlation analysis, curvilinear regression, analytic hierarchy process, grey correlation analysis methods, system dynamics, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, grey multi-objective model, expert judgement method, and scene analysis method.This paper takes PEIA for urban development planning of Dalian City (2003～2020) as a case study, forecasts and assesses the impact of central urban development planning, traffic planning, water resources planning and municipal infrastructure planning on atmospheric environment, water resource environment and municipal solid waste disposal management based on established comprehensive technical method. The simulated results indicate that, by the year2020, the atmospheric environment pollution SO2will be0.146mg/m3, NO2will be0.139mg/m3taking account of soot and vehicle emission, water resources demand will be6×109m3, and municipal solid waste conveying will be3512.7t per day, waste low heating value will increase to5542.9kj/kg with social-economic development.Grey correlation analysis methods, system dynamics, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods are used to assess the environmental impact of status quo scheme, inertial scheme and planning scheme. The results indicate that planning scheme of energy structure and transportation in central urban development planning and traffic planning can definitely minify the adverse effect on atmostphere environment, atmospheric environment pollution SO2will reduce to0.06mg/m3, and NO2will be0.04mg/m3. Water resources demand will be3×109m3under planning scheme in central urban development planning and water resource planning. In order to provide a sufficient strategy to meet the increasing demand for waste treatment and disposal, an alternative selection process is underway to add capacity to existing plants and significantly plan the waste management. The optimal scheme, which planning scheme should be adjusted to, is3R-incineration-anaerobic digestion.Grey multi-objective model is employed to optimize PEIA system by using the quantitative result as the imput. Quantitative environmental indexes with rigid constraints are as follows:atmospheric quality SO2is0.06mg/m3, NO2is0.04mg/m3, water resources usage value is1.16×109m3, solid waste landfill value is108.9t per day. Objective functions are urbanization level is82%, GDP reaches1.633×l012yuan. According to the quantative results, Quantitative evaluation conclusions and countermeasures and suggestions for strategy implement and adjustment are put forward. The results and method cand be referred and extended in the future to develop more in-depth researches.更多还原