【作者】 丁祖昱；

【导师】 张永岳；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 城市化是住房市场发展的核心动力之一,随着城市化进程的不断发展,为满足人们各方需要的各类城市基础设施逐步趋于完善,城市生产和生活的聚集经济效应促进了产业集中和人口集聚,相伴随的是促进了城市对住房日益增长的需求,给住房市场带来巨大的发展空间。与此同时,健康活跃的住房市场为促进中国城市化进程,进而对中国经济的整体发展也是至关重要的。改革开放以来,我国的城市化取得了很大进展,城镇化率由1978年的17.92%上升到了2011年的51.27%,当前我国正处于城镇化高速推进的历史时期,在中国的城市化进程中,住房市场如何满足城市居民的需求并持续发挥作用是整个社会十分关注的领域。本文首先通过对城市化、住房需求和住房市场的定义和基本问题的界定、住房市场的供求、城市住房市场发展等主题的国内外研究成果进行系统梳理,形成本文城市化进程中住房市场发展这一主题研究的理论基础。在相关理论指导下,系统阐述了过去几十年来我国城市化进程和房地产业的发展历程,论证了两者之间密切的互动关系。房地产业是城市化的重要推手,而城市化也是房地产业发展的重要动力,从需求的角度来看,一方面是集中爆发的存量需求,另一方面快速推进的城市化引发了同步飙升的增量需求。农村人口向中小城镇转移、中小城镇人口向城市转移、全国各城市的人口向核心城市转移的过程中,城镇人口增加使得城镇的规模不断扩大,也带动了城市的购房需求。本文进而以住房市场的供求关系为理论基础,构建了城市住房供求关系的动态模型,并将城市化因素在动态模型中对住房市场供求关系的影响进行分析。为了进一步了解城市化和住房市场发展的关系,尝试将住房市场供求关系模型扩展至城市化的框架内,国内外人口增长模型、动态住宅模型以及住宅市场均衡模型为理论基础,构建人口迁移与住房市场发展的关系模型来进一步解释城市进程中住房市场发展的问题。然后,本文采用统计学方法,以我国286个地级以上城市的数据为依据,对我国住房发展前景进行评价,评价结果显示一线城市的住房发展潜力仍然排在前列,而二线城市由于大多拥有更为广阔的城市拓展空间以及相对发达的经济,为市场的持续发展提供了有力支撑,三线城市由于普遍地广人稀、市场容量不大,则较容易出现土地供应过剩等问题。为进一步考察不同城市城镇化进程对住房发展的影响并探讨城镇化与住房发展之间的关联性及其互动效应,本文对包含城市城镇化进程和城市住房发展的联立方程模型进行估计,结果表明城镇化会带动城市的住房需求,城市土地供应量的增加、居民人均可支配收入的提高也都会推动城市住房的发展。随着房地产开发投资的力度加大,城镇化进程也将加快；城市人均住房面积对城镇化的影响并不明显。本文还对新型城镇化背景下我国城市化率和城市住房发展的前景进行的前瞻性分析。分析结果预计2022年城镇常住人口约为8.82亿人,城镇化率约为62%；未来十年住房总需求,总量约为120亿平方米,城市住房发展还存在一定空间。为满足“十二五”、“十三五”时期我国城镇住房需求总量并使供求平衡,根据供需整体平衡的目标原则,2013-2022年新增保障住房和商品住房套数结构应约为1：4。同时,对于不同层级的城市来说,其面临的机遇和风险也各不相同。伴随一线城市产业结构的调整、发展能级提升,一线城市的房地产风险较会有所改善,且改善性居住需求将有所增加,中高端产品迎来发展机遇；二线城市能级的提升,对周边城市的吸引力有所增强,居民的存量购买力和新增购买力将有所提升,米来发展空间较大；三、四线城市在经历了此前交易量的集中释放后将不得不面对当前需求进入阶段性谷底的现状,但长期来看,随着城镇化的推进,其未来的住房潜在需求仍然较大。在快速发展的同时,我国各城市住房市场也面临着很多问题。因此,在新一轮城市化进程中住房市场发展需要处理好宏观调控与微观管理、住房市场与住房保障、房价上涨与市场发展、人口迁移与市场发展、城市更新与市场发展等的关系。本文认为在新的形势下,大城市的新型城镇化与房地产业发展,都须改变粗放式发展模式,更加注重集约化模式,坚持走资源节约、环境友好的发展道路。而三四线小城市作为大中城市与农村之间的重要联系纽带,住房市场的健康发展既可以缓解在城镇化进程中出现的资源匮乏、房价高涨、空心村等矛盾,同时也将通过吸纳农村人口转移,成为中国城市经济发展新的增长极。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urbanization is the core engine of the housing market, in the process of urbanization, urban infrastructure has gradually improved, not only bringing the concentration of industry and population agglomeration, but also promoting urban demand and huge potential for the housing market’s development. In the same time, the continued development of the housing market has been the most basic source of power for China’s urbanization process, and the overall development of China’s economy. Since1978, China’s urbanization has made great progress. The urbanization rate, which was merely17.92%in1978, rose to51.27%in2011. However, the role that the housing market plays still deserves a great attention.Based on the results of the systematically combing research, the paper studies the process of urbanization and real estate development in the past few decades. The former research shows that there is a close interaction between urbanization and housing market. Housing market is a major force of urbanization and urbanization is also an important driving factor of the housing market.Meanwhile, the paper builds a dynamic model of housing supply and demand in the housing market, and analyzes the impacts of the urbanization factors in the model. To further understand the relations between urbanization and housing market, the paper expands the housing market supply and demand model to urbanization within the framework of domestic population growth model, dynamic model and the residential housing market equilibrium model based on the theory of population migration and housing construction market development relationship model. With the statistical methods, the paper evaluates the prospect of286prefecture-level city housing market’s development. The results show that first-tier cities’ housing development is still in the top row, the second-tier cities have an expansion space, and capacities of the third-tier cities’market are relatively small. To further investigate the interaction effect between urbanization and housing development, the paper estimates the simultaneous equation model, and the results indicate that urbanization leads to the city’s housing demands, the increase of urban land supply and disposable income also promote the development of urban housing. Results also show that the development of real estate intensifies urbanization, while impact of the housing sales on the urbanization is negative.This paper also discussed the prospects of urbanization and development of the housing market. In2022, the population of the urban resident will be about882millio n, and the urbanization rate will be62%; total housing demand over the next decade w ill be about12billion square meters. Meanwhile, three levels of cities will be confront ed different opportunities and risks.Housing market is faced with a lot of problems now. Therefore, in the process of urbanization, varied relationships between the dilemma of macro and micro management, housing markets and housing security, housing prices and market development, migration and market development, and urban renewal and market development, should be properly dealt with. This paper argues that urbanization and real estate development in big cities should adhere to a resource-saving and environment-friendly development path. Small cities of the third and fourth-tier should be the bond between the rural and metropolitan areas.更多还原